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Https://www.zug4you.ch/en/news/news-articles/a/why-rio-tinto-could-succeed-with-the-takeover-of-glencore-this-time

Interesting article claiming a Glencore insider states the chances of the takeover as high, but with an offer of £5.30 (same as original IPO price) on 5thFeb.....we'll see....I think £6+ is too high when consideration of all the billions required to get to copper in Argentina.

Taken from the preliminary results FY23 (published Feb24), Nagle stated during FY23, GLEN had acquired MARA, doubled the Pachon resourse and added few others, "adding 5 billions tons of copper to the inventory" this is added, and not total, so surely £5.30 is too low with the copper resources on offer.

As Warren Buffet says, they spend fortune takinggold out of the ground, melt it into rectangular blocks, and put it back underground again...but it ain't done so bad recently, just a shame I'm not directly invested in it

Ivan has just declared his 10.39%, I was looking out for it. Looks like he's still holding out for more!!!!

Evi, I'd by happy at £5.50. The big plans unveiled by Nalge are ambitious and I don't think he is keen to go it alone as Glen don't build mines (or not recently), they prefer to buy them. Still let's enjoy the ride!!!

Considering the IPO was £5.30, a takeover at £5.30 would be an ironic symmetry....this stock has been a huge disappointment, unless investors took advantage of the many low price opportunities that came along over the years.

I wonder when if/when bid will tabled...I don't see many other options for RIO to guarantee a huge increase in copper reserves.

Shoop, GLEN'S debt has been climbing steadily to $14.4b as of June 25 (though should be lowered to about $11b for year end 25 report).

What has changed from last time is a new CEO at Rio Tinto, the previous CEO pulled the plug last time, so the main obstacle is removed, and RIO initiated the talks, last time GLEN approached RIO.

I'm suprised RIO dismissed the M&A so quickly last year (it's like they didn't see the panic on copper), as GLEN had a far lower valuation based on lower copper prices. That would have been the time for RIO to strike. GLEN still need a partner for MARRA & El Pachon, but now from a position of strength due to the panic on copper, it would seem the ONLY way this deal won't get done is if GLEN demand too high a premium valuation or too much boadroom control.

Got to hand it to Nalge, the CMD presentation made everyone sit up and take notice, he's playing a blinder!!!

Both AAL and ANTO have risen today 2 to 3% based on copper rising plus coal is also up.

Today's 10% rise maybe 7% due to M & A, and the remainder from commodities price increase.

I recall about 3 years ago an intraday high of £5.82, but coal was approx $450 p/t.

Oh, how I wished I'd sold some then, but held for the divis

Previously, the takeover story broke about 6 months after the brief talks were concluded...this time the GLEN have gone public with talks pressumbly still ongoing. Be interesting to see what the public response from RIO will be?

Pressumably the issue that was the deal-breaker 12 months ago must have been resolved....or why resume talks now???

Gogadget, not sure how demand for base metals will be affected by the U.S entering Venezula but this will create geopolictical uncertainty. I'm expecting the markets to open lower in correction territory on Monday, as the U.S now stating it will run Venezula, now creates an opportunity for China entering Tiawan. Venezuela exports most of its oil to China, so Trump now controlling Venezulan oil, can apply some leverage to China on any possible Tiawan blockade and monopoly of Rare Earth Metals. These are just my thoughts but Trump needs to gain greater influence over China, as he had to back down on his tarriff levy on china. The agenda on Manduro creates an opportunity for him.

I'm starting to get cautiously optimistic here (I know I shouldn't based on previous reports), but a number of things are turning in Glencore favour,

Coking coal up nearly 10% this month,

Silver prices up 120% in 12 months

Copper and gold remain near all time high levels

Huge copper ambitions/resources

Even the earlier sale of vitterra is coming good, sold for $900m resulted in glen receiving 16.4% of Bunge shares which are up 20% YTD approx.

Be interesting to see how much the growing debt pile ($14.4b) in the August half year report will be reduced by. Nalge stated debt would be materially reduced for the FY25 report, so small increase in divis and prioritising debt reduction for 2026?

I have a small holding here as part of my dividend income, with an average of £1.08, but didn't expect such a sharp drop off in the SP. I may double my holding to increase my divi payments (as these look secure) and also get some long term capital growth (eventually). With the price seemingly oversold, I look for what will be the main driving force in an upturn in share price, but in this case, I can't see what it will be, so what will it take to drive the SP higher?

Cheap doesn't mean it can't get cheaper

Probably speculative buying now BHP has confirmed they won't be going after AAL anymore. Maybe GLEN is the new BHP target?

Could also draw RIO to show their hand.....

Roger A, a very well timed exit. well done!!

So to achieve the higher value of FY25 copper guidance of 875kt, they would require Q4 Copper volume of 292kt (H1 at 344 + Q3 at 239).

Using the estimated Q4 number 292kt as the quarterly guidance figure for 2026, would give a FY26 number of 1,168kt (33% higher than this year). So could be a bonanza year in 2026, but this of course doesn't take into account any future lower grades, strikes, floods, etc, but this is an impressive turnaround from the Q1 statement.

The company did state in the H2 report that copper production would be weight 40% H1 and 60% H2, so credit where it is due.

Also, these numbers give the management some credibility ahead of the capital markets day,.

The only negative is gold volumes are 17% lower, when gold prices are at their highest, shame, you can't have everything!!!

FY25 Guidance maintained, hopefully we'll see a decent rise today. Copper up1% AND the current pro-mining Argentine president Javier Milieu won crucial mid-terms elections on enconomic reforms, this should have a positive impact on the 100% owned monster copper mine in Argentina.

After a few rough early months in 2025, hopefully a strong finish to the year.

I am not normally too interested in Q3 production numbers, but this weeks Q3 report (in particular copper) from GLEN is critical & could see significant SP movement depending on the numbers reported.

H1 copper numbers are 344kt (26% lower than H1 24 due to mine upgrade/reorientation at Collahuasi), with FY25 guidance now at 870kt. To meet guidance will require a huge 53% increase on H1 copper, so Q3 is critical as it will be difficult to make up any the shortfall in Q4.

If Q3 numbers are lower than expected & FY25 guidance missed, GLEN will tank.....BUT if FY25 guidance is maintained, Q4 numbers will have/expected to be huge to meet the target, then I would assume that Q4 copper numbers would be the minimum quarterly figures for FY26, and a significant upgrade on previous years figures. With high Cu prices forecast for the next few years, and higher copper production, GLEN profits should be increase. Any SP dip on Wednesday could be a decent buying opportunity long term.

Dessy, I think it's Trump shooting his mouth off over China hording Rare Earth Metals.....another stand off and round of threats incoming