Member Info for LivintheDream

In the 2 years (yrs 18 & 19) preceding the pandemic Glen paid a divi of 20 cents per year...whilst servicing a $16B debt pile....yr 23 profits should be higher than yrs 18 & 19 due to higher commodity prices, but this will be offset by higher inflation units costs (unit costs will have approx doubled in the last 3 years)...if glen paid a divi of 20 cents per year back then, we should be inline for higher dividend this year, unless they fund the Teck takeover from yr23 profits....

TnJ, principle reason why GLEN (and other miners) are down is the property and manufacturing sector in china are performing hugely below previous levels (and still falling). The shanghai Metals Exchange copper inventories have more than doubled since the start of the year (even during covid, the inventory levels were falling), other factors are the strong dollar (commodities are purchased in dollars, so more expensive) and higher interest rates , which limits growth/expansion. and also the recent buyback programme has finished.

If GLEN fund the $7B Teck coal take over by using the remaining $3.5B of the $5B credit facility (with the remaining balance covered by profits), then I am hoping for 25cent p/s dividend, although they may split the returns to shareholders as a dividend AND further buybacks????

Last years dividends was 44cents (from memory) was taken from record profits and during Yr23H2 period, they cleared $6B from their existing debt pile, that alone equates to 50cents per share (current debt stands at $1.5B).

one other thing to note, the last 12 month share buybacks have removed approx 7% of company shares from circulation.

it will be interesting to see the share price reaction when the TECK is closed in Q3 this year, the takeover value is $7B, will this amount be added onto the current market cap, and therefore raise the share price?

I'm expecting the divi to be cut, as profits will be lower. as Gary has correctly stated, dividends are taken from 40% profit, lower profit means lower dividends.....this will be the same for all mining companies right now, not just AAL

Spikej, thanks for posting the link, I don't have access to the times online after they raised the online subscription price to £40 per month (from £15 Inc Sunday paper print)

Interesting article in the Times today on fall of the Chinese economy, it stated that president xi is prepared to let the Chinese building sector collapse and plough investment into EV's, solar/green policies, to further strengthen their, already dominant position. This fits with general Chinese policy of not caring about people and focusing more on global party dominance. It also stated that crackdowns were taking place on negative posters on social media for referencing the failing economy......any social uprising will be quashed hard as they won't want another 1989 Tianenmen square moment.....

Having taken another look at the 2023 Half year report, on page 5, it states that,

1.Total net debt ceiling is lowered from $10b to $5b to protect BBB/Baa credit rating

2. an amount of $2b was put aside for the potential TECK coal/EVR transaction as balance of rewarding shareholders today, but ensuring the seamless completion of the EVR buyout.

So it would seem that the $7.7b TECK coal/EVR cash buyout will be financed from FY23 profits ($2.0b), $5b credit facility (of which $1.5b is being used), and the remainder financed from H1 24 profits....estimated at $3 to $4b....

Based on the above, the $7.7b completion of EVR added to today's market cap would give a share price of £6.00+ per share.....Or have missed something????

The UBS projected 2024 returns of $1.2b gives a yield of 1.75%....I expecting a minimum of 20p p/s

Just read the proactive investors link on prospective dividends for miners it is very negative. $1.2b divi payout equates to 0.08p per share....dreadful.

The purchase of the Teck coal asset is not yet sanctioned and from memory, the deal would be completed backend of 2024, but the company have never disclosed how the buyout would be funded, debt, from profits???

Last year, in their investors day presentation, they outlined the guidance for the 2023 distribution of dividends, but this year, no investors day presentation!!!! The Teck deal has muddied the waters on the company's finances, but take out last year's exceptional performance/dividends, we still should return good numbers with copper trading approx 20+% higher than pre-covid times, low debt and the trading arm forecasting higher than estimated profits.....I am certainly expecting a divi payment of more than 8p p/s!!!!

I can't see GLEN making bid for AAL. I would have thought BHP a more likely suitor aligning with common commodities iron ore, potash and copper, but still can't see any bid materialising...... AAL have been a victim of circumstances, funding the build of a new mine during falling commodity prices/income during a period of high inflation....they built the Quellvecho mine in Peru on time/budget....keep the faith

I'm expecting an approx 35% cut in the GLEN divi.

Some of the hit from lower commodity prices, higher opex costs, should be offset by the clearing of the $6b debt pile (now back at$1.5b).

Last year they had an investors day presentation which outlined some basic conditions of the divi/return of capital payments and general update, but they've not released it this year.

We don't know how the TECK coal takeover will be financed next year?

I got caught out with the savage drop in AAL on Friday, didn't think the RNS was too bad, and added a few more in the afternoon.

Jemgee, I am in agreement with you that I didn't think to RNS too bad, headlines stating "slashing" production are misleading, when "trimming" (of selected commodities) would be more accurate.

The divi has been "cut/trimmed" twice recently from last years highs, but another cut would be hard to stomach.....hopefully the cost saving measures will help protect the divi.

The ramping up of quellvecho copper mine production seems to have be overlooked today.

Incidently, all FT100 miners were up today....oh the irony....

The CEO probably thought maybe 4% drop on the RNS this morning, But not 19%...but the news needed to be released (my initial read of the RNS was not too bad and it started to climb after a few hours trading, before dropping away)

My lowest buy was £18.30 (started buying at £19.40), but how low can this go?

And Last week the sp jumped 7% in one day...

Dare they cut the dividend again? When is the next AGM?

Tried to add at the close, but couldn't get a quote...today was crazy, see what the opening is on Monday..

Norges bank bought in a few days too early....ouch...welcome aboard lads...

Just added 350....but still have cash if it drops sub £19.....seems oversold but still could go lower on any bad data from china

Gwm121,

I hold 300 rio shares and did have poly shares but sold them on the day they annouced the delisting and lost £6k. I did look at brwm but never had funds at the time to invest so I'll put them on my watch list, thanks for the reminder.

After the blowout at HZM a few months ago (was invested early days, so saw huge profit vanish and got out level), I'll only invest in large/ft100/250 stocks, no more aim. After glen, aal is my other big holding (still adding when sub £21).

My aim is to build an annual divi income of £25k+ p.a and £70k+ pot to make up any shortfall from the dividends.... so hopefully 3 years (55 years old) till I can retire on these funds upto 67 and the take my works/state pension....

Evi, after months of misery, but right on cue for 1st Dec, the santa rally gave his first pressie with improved pmi numbers from China....hope he visits again soon....

Gwm121, Newmont mine mostly gold, copper and silver with a little zinc and lead. They recently bought Newcrest in Australia, so are the world's largest gold miner,are looking to get more exposure to copper. They went ex divi a few days ago at $0.40 cents (so about 3.9%), but they calculate their dividend payouts on framework based on the price of gold, so gold prices at $1700/oz, divis are paid within a range between $1.40 to $1.80, at gold prices $2000/oz, payments are within a range of $2 to $3.

I only hold 200 shares, but had no gold stocks previously, and Newmont appealed due its size, divi yield and multi year low share price, which I believe is due to missing earnings targets over the course of the year.....every company has its risks so I'm not too deep in this one.

Probably at least another 12+ months of volatility across all markets and sectors....can't see nothing to drive it forwards and up....but can see plenty of things to send/keep it down (Ukraine, Israel, Chinese aggression and US election, especially if Trump gets back in (remember the trade tarrifs last time). Holding back some cash to buy on the dips, and recently bought some Newmont shares with Glen divis in USD, up 15% plus divi

As an indication on rising breakeven costs, a few years ago, Pre High inflation, Glencore's global breakeven cost on coal was $30/tonne, on the last report/update, that figure is now $65/tonne (due to the energy intensive nature of mining).

I was invested with junior miner HZM for the nickel mine in brazil (GLEN have 20% of this), the project was sanctioned/funded and 50+% built with first product due Q1 24, then high inflation struck, and now the project is on hold pending a second fund raise....difficult to see where the next set of new mines are going to come from unless the big boys are involved. eventually, with low copper inventory levels, prices will rise quickly when demand picks up.

The annual investor date is normally announced by now, this should add some clarity to the recent TECK deal/future plans...also further to the post below, the high inflation/interest rates raises the breakeven price on new build mines to uncomfortable levels, making it impossible for junior miners to get any funding for building mines, so the big miners will continue to control the metals market for decades to come, and with very few copper mines coming on stream, the NEWMONT CEO stated that copper should be added to the critical metals list.

This coal deal with TECK has all of a sudden become seemingly very amicable, when you consider the hostility from Teck on the initial $22B M & A bid from GLEN. statements like "agreeing to a standstill for 2 years before another bid can be tabled", sounds like, you've got 2 years to offload the coal business and prove you are serious on your ESG claims before we'll consider a M &A.....if GLEN play this right, they should profit from the coal deal and could still merge with TECK in a few years....