Member Info for LivintheDream

Be interesting to see how far BHP are prepared to go to get AAL, Glencore had a couple of offers rejected by TECK last year, before buying TECKS coal division EVR. Teck stood firm and were aligned with shareholder interests, hope AAL do the same here. Also (as a holder of GLEN), under the EVR takeover agreement, Glen are not allowed to make another approach at TECK until 2 years after the EVR deal is completed! I'd be surprised BHP didn't make a offer for TECK if the AAL deals fails, unless GLEN have the first option in 2 years time.....one thing for, there are some big bets being placed on copper with these M & A's.

S.J.W, I believe we get an update on trading division relating to guidance targets, i.e upper or lower end of guidance range, but no numbers.

Production numbers tend to disappoint as they are tempered with words such as, strike,floods, power cuts, etc....but the recent metals surge will lift the EPS and share price. NEWMONT (gold miner) share price rose 12% yesterday on a quarterly jump in EPS, after the 3 x previous negative EPS quarterly results. Shame I sold mine a few weeks ago when gold peaked, but copper is still rising.....plenty to look forward to here, EVR update, rising metal prices and they may even look at a special dividend if metal prices stay at these elevated levels.

About 2 years ago, there was more than a whisper of BHP making an approach on GLEN.

NEWMONT completed the NEWCREST takeover a whiles back, all the M& A activity certainly tells us that it's the sector to be in for the next bull run in metals.

Yeah thanks Evi, I aim to remain invested through the next bull run, but picking the right time to leave the party is tricky, especially when you're having such a time.....normally when the DJ packs up and leaves is a good sign (2 months ago it looked like the beer ran out and fighting was about to start - and I was hiding behind the sofa)....I'm always learning through these investing cycles, but need to learn when to sell without getting sellers remorse.....

Evi, I haven't looked at the new brit isa yet.

I'm trying to build a 18% cashpot (of total pension/ISA value) ready for retirement to allow me to dip into when i have a low yearly dividend (as this year) and not to get tempted into any more shares.....but the temptations come along every so often.....any recent investments are in my son's LISA.....trying to get him decent deposit for a house for when he finishes uni...

No worries, good luck

Ade, I've never sold a Glen share during the peak 15 months ago or since, I wish I had, but I'm useless at trading so am a LTH holding for long term growth and divis and have always stated this. I have done well with glen but not all my investments have gone so well, HUR, SXX, RMM to name a few, good luck with your investments

No worries Ade, I'm still laughing at your 08:19 post on results day, "this will trade between £3 and £3.50 and then continue to fall"

We all get things wrong from time to time, but remember, bears sound clever, bulls make money!

DT, goes ex divi on 2nd May, but not worth holding for the divi alone....the next set of figures from China will be crucial here....Boom or Crash....

Still, copper up nearly 3% today and glad I added at £3.68 to my son's LISA on results day

Mining analysts have been forecasting a rise in copper prices for over 12 months, but the slowdown in the Chinese economy reduced copper demand and prices, but now Chinese PMI and factory numbers are turning positive for the first time after 6 months of negative numbers....hopefully this is the start of a global upturn leading to a steady gradual climb in copper prices.

Also there was an article on Duncan Wanblad in the Sunday Times on his time at AAL, he is very positive on future, but no earth shattering news on the wordsmith mine or any other project.

Gino, well corrected, typed that post whilst eating breakfast, before rushing to work.....I was expecting Glencore to cut the divi, but not by 75%, at least MNG have kept theirs as previous....not a bad day all round.

Good to see solid results and divi maintained, been invested here since 2020 and divis were maintained during covid, boring but reliable, especially after my core divi holding of Glencore cut their divi by near 75%,

Roxi, agreed, excellent entry point here, although my average price is about £21. Unfortunately, the decision by AAL to further optimise the wordsmith mine was taken during high commodity prices, and during lower prices profits, and consequently they are taking on more debt to keep the mine build going. Long term, the optimisation of the mine will bring in the product cost at the lower end of the cost curve and so building resilience against any dip in fertiliser prices. Just a shame first product is not due until 2027.

NATO at least should given Ukraine air cover to help them consolidate their gains...... instead of giving them 50 bullets a week to win a war......those brave Ukrainan souls deserve better

Istie, completely agree, sort the balance sheet first before splashing the cash...

It's all gone a bit quiet here now that kermit, fozzie, gonzo and rest of the muppets have left the board....

but don't worry folks.....they'll be back at the first piece of bad news....

i understand they're waiting in the wings for the 14:30 matinee showing (when the Dow Jones opens)....

I am surprised that so many top ace investors on this board seem taken aback by the drop in profits. From record profits last year, we now have a period of resource building/accumulation in preparation for the next upturn.....no-one seems to have commented on the additional 5 billion tonnes of copper added to the inventory in 2023.....I'm sure it will come in handy at somepoint...

2024 declared divi is 0 13 cents

Debt now stands at $4.9b (presumably due to purchasing of various resources/building up resourse base)

So assuming teck/evr takeover will be paid for from yr23 profits....

DrP, as a long term investor, I completely agree with your thought process on reduced payment of dividends to enable the company to grow. When I originally invested in GLEN in 2020, I was pleased with the cancelled dividend policy to reduce the then $16B debt pile, and I am still cautiously optimistic that we will have a larger dividend than the UBS 10 cents, whilst not maxing out the reduced $5B credit facility (current debit as per last statement was $1.5B).

This is based on an estimated drop in profits of 65%, and taking into YR23 outgoings such as debt reduction ($6B)/fines($1.5B/lawyers($0.5B)/SH returns ($6.25B) and buybacks($2B) and the $2B held back last year "to facilitate a any potential TECK takeover ". I just hope that when the TECK/EVR coal takeover is complete in Q4, the share price will rerate to include this asset value added to the company market-cap/share price and then repackaged an sold within the 24 months as per the company statement.....GLEN will then be awash with cash and probably take another swing TECK (under the current agreement, GLEN can't approach TECK for a minimum of 2 years from completion of EVR takeover).

good luck all for tomorrows statement

Evi, I did see that article this morning, I hope UBS are wrong with their 10 cents divi prediction.

This far from the fervored antisapation of 12 months ago....how things change...FWIW, UBS have Glen as a buy at £5