Member Info for LivintheDream

Chinese new year starts 22nd Jan, suprised they didn't stay in lockdown till Feb/march. They'll Probably need those temporary hospitals they dismantled after initial covid outbreak.
Xi must have been worried about the growing number of protests spreading to lift the lockdowns, ultimately, you cannot stop the will of the people....as Boris, Truss, Trump, etc all learned....shame the Russians don't give it a go, something has gotta give in the Ukraine soon!!!!

Nice work Evi, well it was good to hold above £5.50, approx 7 weeks till full year report/divi confirmation, hopefully be £6+ by then.
Anyway merry christmas to all on this board, and we'll do it all again next year...

Leftos, steady with the strictly jibes, my wife and I have been latin dancing for the last 10 years (3 yrs salsa, 7 yrs Argentine tango), and really enjoy it (i never thought i would). My only regret is I wished we'd started 10 years earlier straight after I gave up football, and for the single man, there are always twice as many single ladies looking for a dance......why wasn't I taught this at school....

Qz, presumably when Bolton had okocha, dorjkaeff, campo, herrio, Anelka, a good team back then.

Great game of footy that, glad argentina won, they had the most passionate supporters, without them, the world cup would have been very flat, I'm English through to the core (and watched england in france 98), but the world cup needs passionate supporters to make the event special
( no italy in the WC didn't help the occasion).

Evi, good post that, the market didn't like the "lower production guidance" headline from investors day, but look behind the that, and the strategy is geared towards crucial battery metals.
Just a short while ago coal was $50 p/t with production costs at $30 p/t, now production costs are $75 p/t, it's a sound strategy to control output and maintain high margins.

Evi, I'm guilty as charged on that too. Open document and straight to the Capitol returns page..doh!
Gary and Ivan had it under control all the time!!

Evi, I read through the slides again last night and page 8, and Glen reference the El Pachon mine and other mines in the pipeline. Never realised this before, so the future, focused on critical metals supply, and with the mines ready to be progressed, so the situation is better than I originally thought.

WoW, if this is top of the cycle, then yes, a bad time to buy, but is this the top of the cycle? maybe, maybe not? We just don't know.
I hope this not the top of the commodities cycle with predicted commodity shortfalls, prices should go higher. AAL, BHP, RIO all have invested new mines, that have yet to come on-stream. GLEN is trying to expand current mines (nothing wrong with this), but as DTN, stated previously, production numbers should be increased to meet demand. My guess is that acquiring junior miners with proven resources, that require funding will be the path to go down, they are already doing this with HZM.

Appreciate previous acquisitions by the company have not worked out and have added minimal value to the company, and loaded it with debt, but of late, Glencore do seem to be disposing/selling mines, thus reducing production numbers.

Just read through the slides, and generally looks promising. On the slide, Capitol allocation, the base dividend will be $1billion from marketing cash flow + 25% of estimated industrial FCF $14.3b ($3.575b) giving a total$4.575b divided by 12.5billion shares, giving $0.36c (£0.29) per share....plus a special dividend taken from the remaining 75% industrial FCF, if the base dividend + net debt is <$10b.
The wording on the final part of the flow diagram is misleading, but that is how I understand it.
On the drop in 2022 production figures, unfortunately, I do empthaise here as more and more items are becoming more difficult to source. Machine spares lists/ O & M manuals are never reviewed/revised to cover for the growing additional shortages/long lead items......all companies are being caught out on this issue.
On growing production from 2023 onwards, unless they acquire a working mine, they can only realistically increase production numbers by reducing downtime(greater coverage of critical spares), efficiency of operations/optimising production (although this should be done as a matter of course).
As much as I look forward to receiving the dividends, at some point, it would be good to see some ambition to increase production/revenue (probably via an aquistition) to meet future demand, appreciate

David, $14.3b divided by approx 12.5billion shares (allowing for a few cancelled shares through the buyback programme) gives $1.17 (£0.93) potential returns per share....which, considering china is probably operating at 70% capacity and the rest of the industrial world is flat lining.....excellent for all shareholders...ll look at the report later.

Steak, I forgot it was investors day, hope there wasn't any bad news, just seen the so drop 4%, anyone know why?

in the last 2 years trading (21/22), Glencore has paid out the following:
$19.2Billion in debt repayments (assuming the previously stated $2.3Billion is cleared)
$1.8Billion in fines
$8.5billion 2022 returns to shareholders via divi/buybacks
$2.8Billion 2021 returns to shareholders via divi/buybacks
totalling $32.3Billion over 2 years,
If commodity price and production numbers were to be the same average as 21/22 (but probably a little lower), this would give potential for $16.15Billion per year Free Cash flow/returns to shareholders (approx 12.5 billion shares), giving $1.29 (£1.05) per share returns to shareholders via buybacks and divis.

The potential here is huge give that china is ramping up its covid vaccine jabs to save their economy.
this total

After the london market closed, copper rose another 2% and the dow went from negative to +2.18%.
Should be another new high tomorrow!!!

It's starting to get a bit tense in china with growing public rallies against the strict covid measures. President xi will either have to relax the zero covid policy or bring out the iron fist to bring back order.....any indication of winding back zero covid, and commodities stocks should rise.

David, Evi, Hopefully the numbers will be somewhere near correct, other than opex costs and small sums funding Britvolt, HZM, and few other projects, I'm not sure what they would spend the excess cash on? For the last 2 years, approx $20mln has been spent on reducing debt & corruption charges, so in theory, that is an additional $10mln per year into the divi pot, based 2021/22 earnings.

Lostsanity, Thanks for clarifying, I'll look forward to the 2023 divi

The article states 51 cents divi payout for 2022, but it was 37 cents (13+13+11 special), or have I missed something

Causal, you timed your sell spot on, I am hopeless at trading (I have tried with a small amount before with mixed results, but suffer from "sellers remorse") and my long term plan is aiming for a divi income in about 3 years time, so I don't want to risk trading and getting locked on a rise. I will look reduce/sell eventually but hopefully after the next green boom cycle.