Member Info for LivintheDream

Evi, I have no concerns with GLEN, very little debt, , good cash flow, BHP and Elon Musk have both taken a look at it....not bad suitors to have...less than 5 days global copper inventory based on current consumption, the push to go green will eventually mean demand will exceed the supply and with no significant copper mines coming on-steam anytime soon (AAL are ramping their new cu mine in peru), Glen (and others) should profit handsomely.....it will be many years before any junior miners develop producing mines, especially with higher interest rates, funding for exploration/development is now very expensive leading to reduced margins/higher breakeven costs....it is very tough for junior miners right now.

Last 5 days GLEN -5%, AAL +15%, fortunately,
I picked up a few AAL & RIO on recent dips but main holding with GLEN.
Difficult to identify principle reason for drop, with copper rising we should be testing £6, but struggling to stay above £5.
Evi even posted a rocket profile last friday at £5.32 going vertical.....maybe just a correction in-line with market peers.

Billy, the same tactic was used by Ganfeng when taking over Bacanora Lithium 12 months ago, issue a placing to dilute shareholders to build the mine, thus allowing a big player to increase their holding and takeover when the mine when built....works everytime

Billy, as a LTH in HZM, they raised $660mln a while back though dilution and debt. This was to get them to production (Q1 2024 - still on track), but with no source of income, inflation wrecked the budget and more funding was required and Glen took more shares and their equity to 17%. HZM has 2 x tier 1 mines ( largest discovered nickel mine in Brazil). When they get first product, the debt will be cleared quickly, 28 yr life of mine, GLEN will take them over in less than 2 years.
On the recent GLEN SP decline, is this coinciding with the drop in coal prices or being sued for losses over bribery charges?

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-loses-compensation-bid-over-glencore-bribery-2022-10-26/
Nigeria tried something similar a few weeks ago and failed. This latest potential claim seems even more of a stretch.

There won't be a sudden UK style 'U' turn by china, but they will have to change their zero covid policy soon with their economy slowing.
It's all about saving face with china.
My guess is a staged relaxing of restrictions after winter or just before the chinese new year (feb).
If no announcement is made soon, there will be a pullback on commodities, but a change in the current policy is inevitable, either sooner or later.

With such low inventory levels, The copper market could get very tight very quickly if china change their zero covid policy.
Falling commodity prices and higher interest rates makes it difficult for junior miners to explore/ fund/develop new mines, compounding the supply issues.
After the markets closed in london the dow recovered and copper gained another 1%+, could be interesting monday.

Copper up 7% and still rising.....not sure why glen fell back but other miners kept rising.
Which way will it go on monday?

David, I believe the jump is due to the speculation that china is looking at ending its zero covid policy, whilst trying to save their face at the same time...they just need to do a "U" turn, if they are unsure how to mange this procedure, they should contact anyone in the tory party, as they have perfected it recently.

If musk buys Glen, I'm sure he'll announce it on his new toy, Twitter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63457813
BRITISHVOLT the car battery recycling plant being constructed in the north east may go bust before the factory is completed. Glencore is a strategic investor having invested $54m Back in feb.
Another example of going green slowly....very slowly.

Scoop, i am guessing the need for battery metals is still quite small when compared what be required in 5+ years or so, global government support for covid and ukraine has probably drained budgets allocated for "going green", so the race to go green has become a crawl.
The other large trading house trafaguira claims that there are only 5 days worth of global copper stocks remaining....yet copper keeps on dropping. still a good day for the traders on this board.

Musk is a devisive character, Glen already has the contract to supply Tesla cobalt, but the fact he wants in here is good indicator that Glen is going to be a major player in the supplier of battery materials, but then we already knew that, which is why we're invested..

I'm glad that Glen didn't sell 20% to Musk, and then have to sell off the coal operations as part of the deal. I suspect coal is the main reason why Glen is +20% YTD,with all other miners negative.
China PMI figures dropped to 48.1 this morning, a great time to buy mining stocks now for when china get their act together on covid/housing crisis, it may take a few years, but china won't become the no.1 economy persisting with local covid remedies.....although it is ironic that the country where covid originated from decimating the global economy, are ruining their own economy while the rest of the world has evolved and adapted to modern medicines.

Evi, sounds "as sweet as".

Thanks, it's a small studio, but given us 20 years great family holidays and memories...apart from the huge flooding 4 years ago....

Billy, in the centre of Nice, approx 10 miles from Monaco, 25 miles to the italian border.
300 days of sunshine every year, and few decent ski villages 60 miles north of the city, so plenty to keep me busy....when I'm not doing DIY!

Billy, too much hassle with local tradesman, the bostik filler/skim is easy to use, 70% done and spent a few hours at the beach...be finished tomorrow morning, then chillax time...

Evi, are back in the UK or still in NZ?
I'm on hols in france atm, managed a dip in the med in the late autumn sun.
On the prod report, I have noticed that any global issues affecting the miners gets aired out the rio bhp,aal reports and glen gets put down (or up) before the actual report is released.
I am just stunned that the chinese are carrying on with zero covid policy, when it clearly isn't working...why devolop the sinovac vaccine and then not use it effectively?
Anyway, I have a day of skimming kitchen walls to look forward to, we had some large flood damage 4 years ago, And after leaving it to dry out, covid and doing all the prep earlier this year...it time to skim the walls with what appears to be a polyfilla type mixture applied with a roller and skimmed with a wide trowel/blade...

With the dow up again (10% in a month), I pressume the large drop in all mining stocks is due to the further covid lockdowns in china? Too reliant on local herbal remedies, no faith in western vaccines or the chinese sinovac...
inventory levels for copper are at/near record lows....gonna be a big bounce sooner or later