Member Info for LivintheDream

Just read Times daily market report, and it says China preparing another stimulus package for growth and the fed is expected to ease interest rate rises for now....hence the lift up in miners today, but tomorrow may be different...

Thanks for the info on the fed, markets are all over the place at the mo....at lot going on everywhere, middle east, Ukraine, China aggression in South China Sea, yanks raising debt ceiling again... elections next year....I'm expecting more volatility for the next 12 months

Anyone know why the lift in the sp today? I was expecting a fall with copper prices dropping and inventories rapidly rising.....Still good to see it climb

Surely glencore will dominate the required fund raise and increase their stake to 30%, and make a takeover offer of the current share price plus the standard 30% premium...

I thought the recent drop in sp was due to falling nickel prices, but now we know why, no exact details on what caused the delay/ required funding...any funding I can live with, but the 6 month delay, as all previous budgets would be dependant on the income stream starting in Q1 24...enter stage right GLENCORE....

Next year could be worse for growth with the following global uncertainties....UK elections prob next autumn and US elections in Nov.....if Trump/republicans get in, it could be bad news for Ukraine support from the US (with Trump promising to end the war within 1 week), ....if Russia are seen to profit from the invasion, it may encourage China to up the pressure on Taiwan....granted commodities are not affected by UK politics, but Trump, last time adding trade tariffs on most imports into the US, slowed down global trade and growth...

Unfortunately, with so many sectors on low valuations and paying bigger dividends (housing, mining, insurance), investors see better value elsewhere. A takeover bid will shake things up, but was more likely when the the U.S.D was $1.08.

Shame, great company, but poorly managed.

Nearly £3billion in shares purchased and the dial never moved.....were these bought in the open market, or taken from the buyback shares held in the treasury?

Pleasantly surprised with the additional returns, but reading the report, I found it difficult to put the report into any context as profits/earnings were down by 40 to 50% when compared to the stellar results last time. If this is classed as (near) normal commodity prices/trading, should we expect the same level of shareholder returns next year?

Net debt increased to $1.5b.....and it's all gone very quiet on the TECK M&A. Is it dead or is something going on in the background?

Avocet123, i take your point on performance comparison of the FTSE to the DAX (up 12.9% YTD) and CAC (same as FTSE), which i never checked before my post. my comment was based on GDP data, which I never checked, having reviewed the EU to UK, the last few months are similar (but with the EU performing better in the previous period), so fair comment.

I does suprise me somewhat that our forecast GDP is always lower than the EU, but the UK works more hours per week, France is permanently on strike (far more than the UK), Italy shuts down for whole of August, but our number are always forecast lower...possibly because our manufacturing industry is slowly dying, but as i said earlier, fair point.

The Finch uk credit rating is AA- so 1 level down from the US. Ever since we left the EU, the IMF, and all other finance institutions have been predicting the worst growth/recession, and yet somehow, we keep outperforming our european neighbours, but keep getting slammed at the same time.

Interesting comments AAL last week where they cut their divi by approx 25% due to a lower forecast metals prices (predominately iron ore and PGM's) for the next 6 months before expecting them to rise next year, so I'm not expecting a special divi from GLEN and they probably want to keep a sizeable warchest for any M&A. On a side note, 6 months ago, copper inventories at the LME & SME was approx 3.5 days of global copper consumption, today it is down to 3 days.....during this low global growth period, inventories are still declining.....even if demand from China remains flat, copper warehouses will be empty in 5 years....(just as CE cars are phased out)

So 1.5b USD equates to about 270 million shares removed from circulation. Let's see if they start another buyback after the H1 results. Although earnings will be lower this year, the returns to shareholders could be bigger than this years $6b as we no longer don't have pay back any debt. The $6B debt cleared this year equates to $0.48c (39p) per share, plus any other returns from earnings, so there should be plenty of cash sloshing about for returns to shareholders..... or to fund the TECK M&A....

Evi, I thought this was the problem mine that GLEN sold to the zambian government, via a loan arrangement, but secured an off take agreement and % of revenue from the furnace until the debt was cleared.....not sure if I am confused with another mine...could be wrong...

Going back to the coal thread on yesterday postings, glen operate on a break even cost of $70 per tonne for coal, and with no CAPEX costs , as it is assumed they are running this side of the business down, why spin it off? unless TECK are insisting this as part of the M & A deal, which has gone very quiet. my view is that negoiations are progressing towards a deal, just my opinion.

Https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Copper-Can-Go-Up-10-Times-Warns-Billionaire-Mine-Owner.html

from the link posted, copper should get a sustained rally in the not to distant future. Not sure about the multiples mentioned (as this will drive inflation up again, and kill any sustained growth). Any prospective Junior copper mines in a PFS stage probably won't get funded/sanctioned on current copper prices/interest rates (giving a high breakeven cost) thus driving prices higher. It's only a matter of time till it starts to climb......

Not even a "thanks for his services and we wish him good luck", plenty of talk of growth and acquisitions(again), unless Tom's castle is sat on top of a gusher, difficult to see where the revenue will generated to fund these ambitions.

Evi, I'll be adding few more glen with divis if price drops below 4.20, AAL have dropped 30% in recent months so I'll add a few of them too.

I see Newmont have agreed the price to buy Newcrest, and with BHP buying OZ minerals and RIO buying out the remaining 50% of that monster copper mine in mongolia, it just leaves the Glen/Teck deal to be sorted....or not...it has all gone rather quiet on that story.....but i suspect it will happen one way or the other.

For the last few weeks when I come home from work, my wife says "Glencore is down again"....so yesterday I showed her the article in the FT - Copper price to surge to record high this year, dated 24th march.

https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e

she seemed reassured, but I then told copper has dropped another 10% since the article. I then explained that there is disconnect between todays falling prices (from falling demand in china/US due to rising inflation/interest rates) and that stock inventory levels are are still falling during this period. so when demand for copper picks up...BOOM

So when I left the house this morning and looked outside, it was clear blue sky with no clouds, but the weather forecast it to be tipping it down later in the day....the problem it's difficult to know what to believe when there is no rainclouds on the horizon...

Same here, added more today... hope it holds lower till my glencore divi is paid, with the Quellaveco copper production getting ramped up, the woodsmith mine being optimised to reduce product cost, and the recent environmental permit granted for the mine extension in Boliva, AAL has great prospects looking forward, the sp could double in the next 4 to 5 years, plus dividend growth.