Member Info for LionelGreen

Great find @brasi. My first reaction is that this is terrific news for BMN: it will provide much more publicity, and further consolidate credibility, of VRFBs. BMN could never hope to take the entire market when VRFBs really take off, and the more that VRFBs are seen as a reliable, safe, and economic approach to grid-scale energy storage, the better it will be for BMN.

This is the latest schedule I have seen (from 14-08-20, pp35-37):
https://tenderbulletin.eskom.co.za/Tenders/Docs?TENDERID=44761
-
Package 1
Skaapvlei 80MW/320 MWh
Contract Award 30-12-20
-
Package 2
Melkhout 35MW/140MWh
Bid to the Market 26-08-20
Contract Award 25-01-21
-
Pongola 40MW/160MWh
Bid to the Market 26-08-20
Contract Award 25-01-21
-
Elandskop 8MW/32MWh
Bid to the Market 26-08-20
Contract Award 25-01-21
-
Package 3
Hex 20MW/100MWh
Bid to the Market 26-08-20
Contract Award 25-01-21
-
Graafwater 4.5MW/25MWh
Bid to the Market 26-08-20
Contract Award 25-01-21
-
Paleisheuwel 10MW/40MWh
Bid to the Market 26-08-20
Contract Award 25-01-21

Libero: thank you for your courteous response to my second "Prediction Checker". Your negative reaction (9 likes) exceeded my original post (8 likes), so I will take this as an indication that this topic is too controversial to be of any use, and desist in future.

The exercise was not at all intended to "name and shame". If SP predictions are intended as a "bit of fun", then reviewing their success should (I suggest) be taken in the same spirit. But I also felt that many of these short-term predictions risk diluting the assessments of the company's prospects and potential long-term value, which are this Board's great strengths. But, as I said, the Board has spoken.

Cordially
Lionel

Libero: the company www site provides a good assessment of AAU's gold prospects, mainly in western Turkey, which underpin the share price. The company is well run (Kerim Sener), is delivering consistently, and with a good balance sheet. In addition to prospects in existing mines (Kiziltepe), as well as in Cyprus, I'm mainly holding for the possible upside which may (I stress may) be expected from their Salinbas project, in eastern Turkey (e.g. 29-09-20 RNS). Again, there's enough on their www site to get a decent picture of its potential. My investment is based on the expectation that Salinbas will add significantly to the company's resources over the next 2-3 years.

I provide a "big picture" of BMN and its prospects, updated from my previous version of 01-11-20.

The aim is to help orient new investors to the company, and newcomers to this board.

The 14 parts are posted in reverse, so that it can be read sequentially.

The most significant changes/updates are indicated "<<<", and these are mostly under Qs 14, 15, 18, and 19.

Cordially
Lionel

Lionel's Big Picture (2/14)

Q1. What is BMN?
A. One of the world's top three (primary) vanadium miners/producers, with some of the world's biggest high-purity vanadium deposits. It is located in the Bushveld area of South Africa. Production is ongoing, the company is already very profitable, and it has ambitious plans to increase production and sales, and to diversify further.

The company (http://www.bushveldminerals.com) comprises three arms:
* Bushveld Vanadium: a low cost, vertically integrated primary vanadium producer
* Bushveld Energy: an energy storage component manufacturer and project developer, focused on vanadium-based energy storage systems called VRFBs
* additional (minor) investments in coal (Lemur's Imaloto, Madagascar), tin (Afritin, Namibia and South Africa), and other (PQ iron, titanium and phosphate)

Their corporate video shows some of their mining and processing operations:
https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5a5626af9ed50c2f9b04679c/bushveld-minerals-an-emerging-integrated-vanadium-producer

Q2. What is vanadium?
A. An element used (at present) primarily for strengthening steel, used in large (and increasing) quantities in the manufacturing and construction industry (as rebar).
Vanadium is actually very common in the Earth's crust (the 20th most abundant element), but sources of sufficiently high concentration to extract economically are more limited. Demand for vanadium is expected to rise strongly over the coming years with the ongoing take-up of vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs).

Q3. Context: who are the other major vanadium miners?
A. Principally Glencore's Rhovan in South Africa and Largo's Maracas Menchen mine in Brazil. Various others are under development or consideration.
In addition to these "primary producers", vanadium is also produced (mainly in China and Russia) as a by-product of steel smelting, but with attendant issues such as restricted supply and pollution products.

Q4. What are BMN's vanadium resources and processing facilities?
A. They comprise (see company www site):
* Vametco, an integrated mine and processing facility: the mine is opencast, along a strike of approximately 3.5 km. It produces a steel-alloying vanadium carbon nitride product, called Nitrovan.
* Vanchem: a primary low-cost vanadium processing facility, producing vanadium pentoxide, ferrovanadium, vanadium chemicals and it is capable of producing vanadium trioxide.
* Mokopane: one of the world’s largest primary vanadium resources, foreseen as a primary source of feedstock for Vanchem. The long-term plan is to develop Mokopane into a standalone integrated mine and processing plant.
* Brits: prospecting rights and a mining right under application on farms adjacent to Vametco. Brits has the potential to supply additional feed tonnage for the Vametco plant, and if required, concentrate feed for Vanchem.

Presently, BMN produces 3400 mtV (metric tonnes of vanadium) per year, and has short-term (3-5 year) plans to triple this to more than 8400 mtV. This can be compared with a total global production in 2019 of around 110,000 mtV. Growth is also expected to be accompanied by a lower production cost.

The extent of BMN's primary vanadium resource is vast: the as-yet untapped Mokopane has an estimated contained vanadium resource of more than 2,000,000 tonnes.
Importantly, the particular geology of the Bushveld complex means that a vanadium resource of similar concentration and extent is unlikely to exist elsewhere.

More specifically, BMN's quoted resources are as follows:
* Bushveld Vametco 187 million tonnes of ore at 0.78% = 1,450 kilotonnes of contained V2O5
* Bushveld Brits 67 million tonnes of ore at 0.58% = 372 kilotonnes of contained V2O5
* Bushveld Mokopane 297.2 million tonnes of ore at 0.68% = 2,028 kilotonnes of contained V2O5
This corresponds to a total of 2028+1450+372 = 3,850 kilotonnes of contained V2O5

Q5. What underpins BMN's share price?
A. BMN's position as a low-cost vanadium producer, at a time when vanadium is in structural deficit, with the company's ambitious plans for increased production at a time when world-wide building (e.g. earthquake-proofing) regulations are expected to lead to an increased demand in future (e.g. in China, and elsewhere).

Fortune Mojapelo's analysis of the present vanadium market (demand-supply) is well summarised in his recent (20-10-20) BRR Media interview:
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5f8d7182c4d0076f2b940ed4 (Chapter 3, from 9:03)
Specifically, he considers that China is moving to being a net importer of vanadium. China currently accounts for 18% of BMN's production, up from 3% last year.

Q6. What about energy storage and Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFB)?
A. A key bottleneck in the take-up of renewable energy is the problem of large-scale grid energy storage, because power is (of course) also needed when energy (wind or solar) is not being generated, while storing large quantities of electric energy is very challenging. Large-scale battery technologies embrace the better-known Li-ion systems, as well as vanadium (and other) flow batteries. Other energy storage technologies considered include pumped hydro, liquid air, and compressed air.

Vanadium has particular properties (related to its four adjacent oxidation states) that make it a unique battery storage electrolyte - allowing indefinite charge/discharge cycles with no degradation, and (unlike Li-ion systems) with no intrinsic fire risks. VRFBs are scaleable, and the vanadium can be recycled or re-used as required. Although presently not as well-known as Li-ion batteries, the technology is well proven, with big storage systems ongoing and planned - driven by the climate emergency. It is useful to stress that a VRFB has exactly the same electrolyte on either side of the battery membrane, so that any unintended transmission of electrolyte through the membrane is of no particular importance. Principles of the VRFB are given at:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/how-the-vanadium-redox-battery-vrb-works-16
https://www.labnews.co.uk/article/2030898/go-with-the-flow-transition-to-vanadium-batteries-is-gathering-pace

BMN has, during 2020, secured guaranteed downstream electrolyte customers in two leading VRFB companies: Invinity (IES, UK/US-based, formed from the merger of Avalon/RedT) and Enerox (Austrian-based, previously known as Cellcube).

An important development in the ongoing uptake in VRFB technology is the possibility of renting out the vanadium electrolyte - the electrolyte constitutes a significant upfront cost if treated as a capital expenditure, while the vanadium is considered fully recyclable/re-usable indefinitely into the future (say, in 10-20 years). Note that these batteries are characterised both by their maximum power output (measured in kW or MW), as well as their total contained energy (measured in kWh or MWh). China's Dalian 200MW/800MWh grid-scale battery, for example, can provide 200MW for 4~hours.

The amount of vanadium required is proportional to the battery energy storage capacity (MWh), rather than its power (MW), which is the reason why you can get longer storage times by simply adding more electrolyte, while leaving the power stacks untouched. This gives flow batteries sublinear scaling of cost versus storage capacity, which is a key feature that makes flow batteries ideal for grid-scale energy storage systems.

VRFBs require some 4500-5000 tonnes of vanadium per GWh, corresponding to about 40,000 tonnes of electrolyte (i.e. once mixed with water and acid).

Q7. What sort of applications are relevant to VRFBs?
A. When taking account of both storage duration and the number of cycles, VRFBs are expected to find applications in:
* commercial and industrial renewable storage
* grid services providers
* electric car charging
* communications infrastructure
* microgrids
* grid capacity management
* hyperscale data centres

More quantitatively, Bloomberg estimate that demand for stationary energy storage (excluding electric vehicles) will grow from 17GWh currently to more than 2850GWh over the next 20 years, or more than a 100-fold increase. Navigant sees demand growing at 58% per annum through to 2027.

For further reading on prospects, see for example:
05-10-20: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/05/discover-the-little-known-metal-many-experts-now-believe-could-be-the-solution-to-renewable-energys-biggest-challenges/
19-08-20: https://www.vanadiumcorp.com/news/industry/flow-batteries-what-can-you-use-them-for/
26-07-20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DFKxoD_a3k&feature=youtu.be
30-06-20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcP1XTjYrTE use in Hyperscale Data Centres (Kenneth Davies,, International Flow Battery Forum)
04-04-19: https://energypost.eu/can-vanadium-flow-batteries-beat-li-ion-for-utility-scale-storage

Q8. Would higher vanadium prices be better for the company's profits?
A. Yes and no. Vanadium prices have been historically rather volatile, but the presently perceived structural deficit is considered likely to lead to higher prices in the future. Higher vanadium prices would increase the profit per kg sold, while lower prices will act as a barrier for other mines to come on-stream. Higher prices may limit the speed of take-up for its large-scale grid energy storage applications.

One of this board's posters (Loudspeaker) tracks the vanadium prices at:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/vanadium-prices

Q9. Can we have some examples of VRFB take-up?
A. Near-term prospects for vanadium battery take-up are particularly advanced in China, and in South Africa. The former includes Rongke Power's close-to-completion Dalian 200MW/800MWh grid-scale battery, with two more, each of 250MW/1000MWh, planned for 2020-21. A recent status report:
http://www.iccsino.com/news/show-htm-itemid-14157.html
states: "The station is part of a national demonstration project that improves the peak regulation capacity of Dalian Power Grid and the power supply reliability in southern Dalian. It will also provide a basis for the design and construction of China's energy storage power stations and the formulation of relevant national policies."

Poster @mogwhy maintains a regularly updated list of the major VRFB projects around the world. His latest update (16-08-20) identified 14 across China, S. Africa, Australia, and Japan, together requiring a total of around 30,000 tonnes of Vanadium (based on 4.5 tonnes of V per MWh).

Another compilation is given by the US DoE:
25-08-20: https://www.sandia.gov/ess-ssl/global-energy-storage-database-home/ search under Technology sub-type = "vanadium redox flow"

Manufacturing capacity for VRFBs is also expanding with the recent announcement of a 3GWh manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia:
https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/storage/deal-concludes-for-saudi-arabian-gw-scale-vanadium-redox-battery-facility/

In South Africa, and independently of the possible Eskom contracts, Bushveld Energy is rolling out a renewable-generation plus VRFB storage mini-grid for the company's existing and future electrical energy needs. Fortune Mojapelo has recently (20-10-20 interview) described this 2.5MW/4MWh mini-grid as "...very very important in demonstrating [their] business case."

VRFBs are gaining traction in many other places, including:
Germany:
* https://schmid-group.com/en/business-units/energy-systems/everflow-energy-storage-solutions/compact-storage/
California, where offers seeking 500 MW of long-duration storage capacity has recently been announced:
* https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-first-long-duration-storage-procurement-has-arrived
and
Australia:
* https://www.energy-storage.news/news/residential-vanadium-flow-battery-systems-under-development-for-australias

As of 25-11-20 (as maintained by poster @mogwhy), major electrolyte production facilities planned or complete worldwide include: <<<
2mt electrolyte- China - Fangchenggang (250,000 tonnes per year)
--------?------------ China - Ningde, Fujian (30,000 tonnes per year)
3,000 MWh pa -- Saudi Arabia, Dammam (13,500 tonnes per year)
1,000 MWh pa --China, Chaohu - Shanghai Electric (4,500 tonnes per year)
200 MWh pa - South Africa - Bushveld Energy Phase 1 (900 tonnes per year)
200 MWh pa - USA - New York (Margaret Lake) ph 1 (900 tonnes per year)
Complete
700 MWh - China - Bolong New Materials (3,150 tonnes per annum)

Q10. Anything closer to home?
Invinity Energy Systems plc (AIM:IES) is a manufacturer of vanadium flow batteries for large-scale energy storage. It was formed in 2020 from the merger of Avalon Battery Corporation (US) and redT energy (UK), and supported by BMN funding (Bushveld holds 8.71% of the company). Invinity is involved in the Energy Superhub Oxford, targeting a 2MW/5MWh flow storage battery to complete a 52MW lithium-flow hybrid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbB9SxOvUQ0

An interview with Invinity CEO, Larry Zulch (01-04-20):
https://soundcloud.com/user-596578261/vsa-capital-episode-6-larry-zulch-invinity-systems-redt

Other significant players include Cellcube, Delectrik, H2, Rongke Power, Sumitomo, UniEnergy Technology, VoltStorage, VRB Energy and Vionx.

Q11. What's all the talk about Eskom?
A. Eskom is a South African electricity public utility, the largest electricity producer in Africa. In 2019, it was announced that Eskom was to be split up into three nationally owned entities due to huge debts and poor reliability. This is leading to various major initiatives to develop independent power production, and large-scale energy storage systems. Trial VRFB systems, delivered by China's Rongke Power, are under commissioning. Major related contracts are being tendered with Eskom at this time, and by the end of 2020 there should be better visibility of BMN's involvement. These are expected to lead to the rollout of VRFB systems to support substantial new wind and solar power generation in South Africa, assisted by World Bank funds. The World Bank is meanwhile embarking on a $5billion 17,500GWh battery storage programme.

Q12. Management and posters talk about BMN targeting "vertical integration". What does this mean?
A. BMN is positioning itself as a major company which:
(a) mines, extracts, and sells a significant and rising fraction of the world's vanadium;
(b) is developing a substantial manufacturing facility in South Africa (in the East London Industrial Development Zone, ELIDZ) to provide the high-purity electrolyte to be used in VRFBs;
(c) is linking up with VRFB manufacturers to establish large-scale energy storage systems (batteries).

This vertical integration allows BMN to profit from the entire supply chain from mining, processing and sale of the vanadium, vanadium electrolyte and VRFBs.

BMN's (first) vanadium electrolyte plant, in East London (SA), is initially targeting 200 MWh annually, with possible expansion to 1000 MWh.

In summary, VRFBs are fast gaining traction for large long duration grid scale applications due to their superior charge and discharge qualities with no degradation, very high safety (zero fire risk), and low cost (per kWh stored). BMN's vanadium electrolyte rental model significantly reduces upfront capital cost. After say 20yrs the electrolyte can be re-sold to the steel market or reused as electrolyte, giving BMN strong long-term revenue growth.

Q13. Why do investors like the company's finances?
A. It's cash-generative, with (essentially) no debt; net cash end June 2019 was $66.1M (SP Angel broker note, 30-09-19)
* 2019H1: EBITDA $41m, post-tax-profit $30.8m (SP Angel broker note, 30-09-19)
* indicative P/E, and EV/EBIT, around 4-5 (see other posts for many other details and discussions)
* 2020H1: EBITDA was -$1m as a result of the lockdown, lower ferro-vanadium prices and delayed payment for sales into China which will now fall into 2020H2 (SP Angel morning view, 30-09-20)
* principal revenue is in US dollars, so that weakness in the SA Rand increases company profits

One of this board's posters, RichKen, gave the following list of current and potential income streams for the company (as of 14-03-20):
* Nitrovan (two grades): Vametco
* V205: Vanchem
* V203: Vanchem
* FeV: Vanchem
* vanadium chemicals: Vanchem
* vanadium ore: Bushveld Mokopane: initial revenue via potential off take with other vanadium processing plants
* iron ore: Bushveld Mokopane: possible future revenue stream (this was why the company formed in the beginning!)
* vanadium electrolyte: Bushveld Energy 1000 MWh per annum.
* electrolyte leasing: royalties from Bushveld Energy
* Bushveld Energy: VRFB Sales in Africa working with VIP partners and others
* Bushveld Energy: renewable energy projects and MicroGrid projects in Africa
* Bushveld Energy: Enerox VRFB manufacturer
* Afritin: income from the 8.1% stake in the business
* Lemur: either income from the sale of the business or progress and long term income from the substantial power generation project in Madagascar

Another of this board's posters (Paludina), for example, tracks the premium vanadium product (Nitrovan) that the company is shipping to the US:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/tag/shipping-87

Q14. Why do investors like the management (Fortune Mojapelo, CEO of Bushveld Minerals; and Mikhail Nikomarov, Chief Executive of Bushveld Energy)?
A. They are experienced, have a proven track record, and are excellent strategists, with ambitious plans. They accomplish what they announce, in what are often viewed in the industry as masterful deals (e.g. their purchases of Vametco and Vanchem), and take appropriate salaries.

Mikhail Nikomarov also heads up the global Vanitec Energy Storage Committee, as well as the South African Energy Storage Association.

The company's drive to deliver vanadium-based grid-scale battery energy storage is seen as a major contribution to the green energy revolution, at the same time helping to revolutionise electrical energy supply and hence wealth-creation in South Africa. BMN has a track record of looking after its workers, and of supporting the local communities.

Some recent interviews with CEO Fortune Mojapelo:
* 04-02-20: https://www.cnbcafrica.com/videos/2020/02/04/miningindaba2020-bushveld-minerals-ceo-heres-why-we-are-excited-about-our-expansion-plans/ (Mining Indaba)
* 16-02-20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_uMw4wmdjw&feature=youtu.be (Mining Weekly)
* 07-05-20: https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5eb2c08331da814c9fc6e6a1/bushveld-minerals-limited-q1-2020-operational-update-interview
* 14-07-20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX_WdScGDVw&feature=em-uploademail (Crux interview)
* 16-07-20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltxAmE9vxX4&feature=youtu.be
* 15-10-20: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/931535/bushveld-minerals-discuss-half-year-performance-expansion-plans-and-vanadium-market-outlook-931535.html
* 20-10-20: https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5f8d7182c4d0076f2b940ed4
* 27-11-20: https://www.dropbox.com/s/0ivhbt3zh55jc75/Duncan%20%26%20Fortune%20Interview.mp4?dl=0 <<< IMARC, Ducan Harris
* 28-11-20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX4pIRRzB9Q&ab_channel=CRUXInvestor <<< Crux, Matthew Gordon

Q15. What valuation do the analysts/brokers suggest?
A. Recent (but not necessarily the latest) broker notes, which contain many details of vanadium price and energy storage assumptions, etc:
SP Angel - target: 37.7p (24-11-20, replacing their earlier target of 80p) <<<
BMO Capital - target: 55p
Peel Hunt - target: 45p
ARC - target: 43p

A little outdated (30 Dec 2017) summary of analyst coverage is given at:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/analyst-watch-232

Q16. Why is the SP at current levels (around 12p) if prospects are so good? It was at 49p at the end of 2018, right?
A. This is considered to be a combination of many things, in no particular order:
* a general lack of awareness of the strategic importance/prospects for vanadium and especially VRFBs;
* recent decrease in vanadium price from its latest peak in 2018;
* the company's LSE AIM listing;
* shares issued in placement last year are still (probably) being sold into the market;
* inclusion of Lemur's Imaloto coal project (Madagascar), which may exclude the company from green portfolios;
* accumulation and other tactics of market makers;
* South African geopolitics and associated credit rating;
* limited in-depth research by analysts on small companies;

Common views by long-term PIs here are:
* this is a well-run company with big projects and big ambitions, and these take time to put in place
* BMN is currently significantly undervalued
* no stocks rise continuously, all are subject to sentiment and trading patterns
* BMN appears to be a great example of Warren Buffet's principles of (a) finding an undervalued company, with what he described as an "enduring competitive advantage", and then (b) waiting until the less-informed or less risk-averse catch up, which is unlikely to be within weeks or even months.

Q17. Suggested further reading:
A. Company www site:
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/
https://www.bushveldenergy.com

There is also an independent compilation of a large amount of relevant and updated information maintained by BMN private investors (led by Alfacomp)
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/

Back in 2018, Alfacomp gave the following navigation hints for this site:
* the last 3 months trading:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/the-end-of-erongo
* the path that BMN has taken in acquiring its vanadium assets:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/from-iron-to-Vametco-221
* an introduction to Vanadium Flow batteries:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/what-is-a-redox-flow-battery-219
* a brief review of the numbers involved
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/VRFBs-the-numbers-218
* an understanding of how BMN's subsidiary, run by Mikhail Nikomarov fits in to the worldwide VRFB industry:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-3rd-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-175
* Loudspeaker's project to track vanadium prices:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/vanadium-prices
* Paludina's shipping logs, showing how much vanadium product (Nitrovan) the company is shipping to the US:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/tag/shipping-87
* Alfacomp's compilation of what Analysts think of the company:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/analyst-watch-232

Q18. What are BMN's most recent developments?
A. Key RNS in the past 12 months (oldest first):
* 01-05-19 Acquisition of Vanchem Plant (SP around 30p)
* 22-05-19 Vametco Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Update
* 23-05-19 Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2018
* 21-06-19 Brits Vanadium Maiden Mineral Resource
* 21-10-19 Mokopane Mining Right Application Granted (SP around 25p)
* 01-11-19 Support for redT - Avalon Merger
* 01-11-19 Strategy for partnering with VRFB companies
* 07-11-19 Vanchem completion and funding
* 07-11-19 2019Q3 Operational Update
* 12-11-19 Potential investment in Enerox
* 19-12-19 Update on investment in Enerox
* 20-01-20 Full Year 2019 and Q4 2019 Operational Update
* 09-03-20 Joint Venture agreement with redT
* 01-04-20 Bushveld to hold 8.71% of newly created Invinity
* 04-05-20 Q1 2020 Operational Update
* 23-06-20 Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2019
* 03-08-20 Investment in Enerox
* 02-09-20 Q2 2020 and H1 2020 Operational Update
* 07-09-20 Vanadium Rental Partnership with Invinity
* 30-09-20 Financing with Orion and Convertible Loan Note
* 30-09-20 Interim Results for six months to end-June 2020
* 09-11-20 Successful Raise of US$35M Convertible Loan Note <<<
* 11-11-20 Vametco Mini-Grid Update <<<
* 24-11-20 Q3 and 9 months 2020 Operational Update <<<
* 30-11-20 Bushveld satisfies conditions of US$65m funding <<<

Over the past month, posters on this board have focused on: <<<
* how the Duferco deal is likely to play out
* progress and positioning of South Africa's Eskom and the future award of battery energy storage system contracts
* increasing press coverage of the importance of vanadium flow batteries in utility-scale energy storage
* completion of loans totaling US$65m (with Orion) for Vametco and Vanchem expansion
* progress in the Vametco mini-grid
* confirmation of a 1.8MWh vanadium flow battery from Invinity at the European Marine Energy Centre’s (EMEC) tidal energy test site, Orkney
* progress of the Bushveld Energy Factory in Zone 1A of the East London Industrial Development Zone (ELIDZ)
* first VRFB-based standalone power system sold by Australian Vanadium subsidiary

Q19. What are BMN's near-term prospects?
A. BMN's anticipated short-term future developments include:
* increased production, at Vametco, Vanchem, and Mokopane
* continued VRFB commissioning and contracts, including the ongoing Eskom tender
* progress with the vanadium rental business
* progress with their own battery (vanadium) electrolyte plant in South Africa
* JSE joint listing, previously mentioned by the company
* announcement of a dividend policy, previously mentioned by the company
* prospects of moving from AIM to the main market (speculation by this board)
* possible disposal of Lemur's Imaloto coal project (Madagascar), which would allow the company to be held in green portfolios (speculation by this board)

Some specific recent/forthcoming milestones relevant for the company are:
* 22-10-20: Duferco CLN first settlement possible, 10-day average share price for the CLN begins around 26-10-20 <<< no news on this
* 26-11-20: Closing date for Glencore's green energy/storage tender for its chrome and vanadium operations in South Africa (see 12-11-20) <<<
* 15-12-20: DMRE-RMIPPPP Preferred Bidder announcement (estimated)
* 22-12-20: Closing date for South Africa's Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) RMIPPPP (2GW) contract (moved from 24-11-20)
* 30-12-20: Original target contract award date for Eskom Package 1 (Skaapvlei 80MW/320 MWh, closing date 21-10-20)
* 31-12-20: Dalian stage 1 - confirmation of commissioning [approx date]
* 31-12-20: Gresham House Energy Storage: target acquisition agreement for an operating facility to expand its portfolio of utility-scale (storage) assets [approx date]
* 25-01-21: Target contract award date for Eskom Package 2 (Melkhout 35MW/140MWh, Pongola 40MW/160MWh, Elandskop 8MW/32MWh)
* 25-01-21: Target contract award date for Eskom Package 3 (Hex 20MW/100MWh, Graafwater 4.5MW/25MWh, Paleisheuwel 10MW/40MWh)
* 28-02-21: DMRE-RMIPPPP Preferred Bidder announcement (estimated as Jan-Feb 2021, see 03-11-20 announcement) <<<

Q20. There are many posters on this board. Where can a newcomer start in understanding their contributions?
A. There are numerous regular contributors to this board who hold generally very positive views of the company, and whose posts cover many key aspects of BMNs business. They provide their views on aspects including:
* possible future developments;
* technology developments and opportunities;
* commentaries and detailed scrutiny of company RNS;
* mining and mineralogical aspects;
* the worldwide vanadium market (and BMN's vanadium shipments);
* critical assessments of the company's financial and accounting aspects.
* risks associated with the South African economy more broadly;

For new investors looking at this company, the following posters (amongst many others) have very positive reputations amongst the other bulletin board members:
Alfacomp: broad understanding of the business, the battery prospects, and provides frequent comments on the share trades
BigBiteNow: insights into the business model and possible future developments
faramog: analysis and prospects
Libero: analysis and prospects
Loudspeaker: vanadium price monitoring
mogwhy: updates of major VRFB projects
NickDerby: company accounting aspects
Ophidian: technical aspects and insights of the mining and processing
Paludina: tracks and reports on the export/shipment of BMN's vanadium products
Pdub: company and business insights and summaries
Sanchez599: company and business insights and summaries
SloppyGuiseppe: posts on relevant worldwide developments
Tyfoon: South African politics, and where BMN sits in this

My apologies for omissions: there are many other regular and respected posters, contributing their technical, business and corporate insights. It is this collection of accumulated knowledge that has led several on this board to suggest that BMN is the "best independently researched company on AIM".

Q21. What about rampers and trolls?
A. Do your own research, and form your own opinion.

All bulletin boards will have members who enjoy predicting the next leg up, and setting their own price targets for the next day, week, month, or year, whether based on technical analysis, intuition, or simply optimism. You can - naturally - take these into account, or not, as you wish.

I, and presumably many others here, are invested for the fundamentals and for the medium/long term. Experience has shown that it is difficult if not impossible to predict the next price movements, the short-term SP direction led by the market makers, or the next moves of our respected management.

Q22. Why do some posters (generally transient avatars) spend time de-ramping, i.e. expressing negative views of the company and its prospects?
A. It is not always easy to understand why those with negative views of a company should spend their time posting about it. Explanations might include investors who bought in at times of share price peaks and who feel aggrieved that they have made poor investment decisions. More likely are those who, as on all boards, presumably post negatively in an attempt to encourage sellers for a variety of trading reasons (day traders, stop-loss fishers, shorters, competitors, etc).

De-rampers and trolls are usually recognisable by their unsubstantiated and poorly researched statements, an absence of factual evidence, repetitive posts on minor aspects, and frequently poor syntax.

Generally, this is a board that welcomes new and genuine BMN investors attracted by its prospects, but it does respond robustly to those believed to be trying to manipulate the share price downwards.

Q23. In a few words?
A. BMN is a very well-run company, with impressive assets, and very exciting prospects.

Time to recall some predictions made on this BB this month.

* 06-11-20 LawrenceH, SP=12.25p
Next week will be the Mother of all weeks ..... News News News. Sit back, Buckle Up and enjoy the ride of a lifetime. This baby is going to blow the doors off ...... Boooooom [13-11-20 closed at 12.63p]

* 09-11-20 Hamill23, SP=12.25p
Easily 17p today [closed at 12.50p]

* 11-11-20 L2analyst SP=12.75p
Looking for a breakout now

Actual SP at end of the month: 12.52p

In the mining industry or extractive metallurgy, beneficiation is any process that improves (benefits) the economic value of the ore by removing the gangue minerals, which results in a higher grade product (concentrate) and a waste stream (tailings). There are many different types of beneficiation, with each step furthering the concentration of the original ore. [wikipedia]