Member Info for LionelGreen

good spot pb940.... last para completes...
Over the longer term, the outlook for vanadium demand is positive with all major end-uses (steel, non-ferrous alloys, chemicals, and batteries) expected to drive growth. There is uncertainly, although considerable potential upside, regarding the future scale of demand for VRBs, which will have to overcome several challenges including the high price of vanadium pentoxide as an electrolyte on their road to commercialisation. On the supply side, Roskill believes that there is a limit to the extent to which co-producers and primary producers can scale up their capacities, suggesting that additional vanadium units will need to come from new projects, or perhaps more secondary vanadium recovery, if the market is to maintain balance.

I'm a small holder here, and larger holder in BMN. I would imagine every LTH in BMN will be willing IES to succeed.

As for Alfacomp's credentials, I don't know him, and I've never met him. But since he's a regular (and highly respected) poster over at BMN, I investigated his credentials when I first invested in BMN about 3 years ago, as part of my own DYOR.

It took me all of 10 minutes, back then, to establish his name, and his background, and therefore his credibility. And yes, amongst other achievements, he has a PhD in physics from the Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge.

Cordially
Lionel

gambitxjs: you invited feedback. Something like a year ago, our HIGHLY respected poster Ophidian explained how some of the chart patterns, including Elliot waves, can partly originate from the collective behaviour of investors - basically, they spot some pattern, buy in, or sell out at the appropriate times. Seems very plausible to me.

As for their actual use, I am more sceptical (at least when it comes to just blindly following some other poster's recommendations). Those here with sufficiently long memories may recall that, on its way down from 49p, there were posts suggesting that 35p was the bottom, and that a rebound from there was likely (based on EWs). Similarly here when the SP was around 20p. But it continued falling, both times. So, I'm happy when people here share their thoughts, but I (for one) take any such conclusions with a big pinch of salt.

I similarly ignore any posts that make predictions of where the SP will be today, tomorrow, or next week. Here's one from this board last week (on 27 May, 13:00), when the SP was 15.25p: "This is certain to smash 15p resistance today/tomorrow and free run up to 19-20p. Any decent rns and we could have dizzy highs of 23-24p next week". Fun to read, perhaps, but irrelevant in any decision making.

We know the fundamentals here are excellent. We know the management here is excellent. We know the serious researchers/posters here are excellent. I'm in for the long term, and know that I'd fail trying to predict the market movements in the short term.

Strong buy.

All just my opinion.

Thanks Guiseppe.

The report is 112 pages, and includes lists of minerals used in green energy, and assumptions on the role each will play out to 2050. Here are some extracts with some relevant points for vanadium.

- extract1
• Redox flow batteries are an emerging technology in stationary energy storage. They are heavy and large, and thus unsuitable for vehicles, but they can be built with extremely large capacities (up to 200 MW, compared with 100 MW for Li-ion) and have a long life span. In the model, Li-ion batteries provide the largest amount of stationary storage, with a declining role for lead-acid batteries and an emerging role for vanadium-based redox flow batteries.

- extract2
As the climate scenarios become more ambitious, 12 of the 17 minerals in this analysis show much larger increases in demand because of their use in energy storage, particularly those minerals used in Li-ion batteries (figure 3.19). Lead, vanadium, and iron show smaller increases: They are not used in Li-ion batteries, but rather in lead-acid or redox flow batteries.

- extract3
Stationary energy storage assumptions:
• Energy storage requirements are met by 90 percent grid-scale energy storage and 10 percent decentralized.
• Decentralized energy storage transitions to an equal mix of lead-acid, Li-ion, and other energy storage technologies by 2050.
• Grid-scale energy storage is met by a majority of Li-ion batteries (70–84 percent of capacity, depending on scenario) and a small percentage of lead-acid (2.5–5 percent). Other technologies (mostly pumped-energy storage) decline in importance to between 17 and 25 percent, while vanadium redox flow batteries grow at a rate of 5 percent of extra additional capacity per year to account for between 2.8 and 3.7 percent of capacity by 2050, depending on the scenario.

Conclusions on increased demand for vanadium (only) out to 2050 (Table B2):
* 2018 annual production=73,000 tons
* 2050 projected annual demand from energy technologies=138,000 tons

Perhaps it's an opportunity, anyway, to thank SloppyG for the regular and impressive unearthing of news which contributes enormously to following what is going on around the edges of BMN!

Thank you!

And... strong buy.

... just starting

This is the Q1 2020 Operational Update, and it seems very solid and measured: stable production, decreased costs, early completion of the annual maintenance programme planned for Q2, both Vametco and Vanchem ramping up to normal levels after Covid-19 lockdown, and good progress with Bushveld Energy.

... reminder
The Invinity Energy Systems’ shareholder presentation will take place on Thursday 9th April at 4pm (UK). We will circulate the presentation registration and participation details by EOP Tuesday 7th April, in the meantime if you have any questions, please email invinity@hudsonsandler.com or visit the company website www.invinity.com for more information.

@RichKen: I/we appreciate the regular summaries of the overall company position which you put out.

... not seen since 19 March I think, 7 days. Any news welcome.
cordially
Lionel

Big, but not VRFB:
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101001803/huaneng-starts-construction-of-the-largest-battery-energy-storage-project-in-europe/

SP Angel have a target share price roughly 4x current. From memory, I do not recall seeing such a large disparity in current vs target valuations with other companies, but I could not find an easy way of trawling through other companies' broker notes to verify. Does anyone here know whether this indeed represents an unusually high multiple? It would be another measure of BMN's excellent prospects.

kinkladze: interesting spot, and nice to read more coverage of the big boys piling in to energy storage.
Alfacomp summarised the status of the various "flow batteries" in a post of 29 November, including the ESS Fe/Fe-Cl flow battery.

numpty: I would be rather surprised if people were not somewhat surprised by such a totally surprise move.

The timing of the planned JSE listing has been discussed by the company most recently in these two RNS:

(1) 31 Jul 2019 (Q2 2019 Operational Update) which states: "The application for the listing of the Company's shares on the JSE will now occur in calendar year 2020. The revised timing is due to the completion of the Vanchem acquisition now being scheduled to occur on 31 October 2019." [actually completed on 7 Nov]

(2) 30 Sep 2019 (Unaudited Interim Results) which states, under Group Outlook: "Progress workstreams for the JSE listing."

On 10 Jun 2019 I wrote here that the JSE www site states that (https://www.jse.co.za/capital/altx) "Depending on several factors, including how complex a method is chosen for your listing, the listing process will take between eight and 12 weeks to complete."

Note that the company is only intending to APPLY for JSE listing in 2020, while the stated time scale for the listing process is short compared to the period of time that the company has been discussing such a listing.

In view of the company's excellent progress, accompanied by the rather lacklustre SP performance over the past months, can I ask again: are there any thoughts (BBN?) as to why the JSE listing is not being pursued with greater urgency, and (consequently) whether the company might be targeting some next move before the JSE listing process is actually initiated?

Codhead: I imagine this is just a glitch with LSE, nothing more

Perhaps of general interest at times like this (9 min):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEYh7eNtVro

Since the case has been with the FCA for 6 months, it seems difficult not to conclude that anyone involved in any manipulation does not care in the slightest about the FCA. It would be good to be wrong, and even better to see the FCA hit back in the case of BMN. Thank you again, Alfa, for what you are doing here.

Is there a way of recording proof that PIs are unable to purchase shares at some specific moment (it should always be possible to buy up to the number given by the EMS, i.e. 30,000 in this case)? Presumably this would provide strong evidence of manipulation?

Looking at the Bushveld Perspective:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/nitrovan-shipments-to-the-us-183
I see that another shipment is logged as having arrived in Baltimore yesterday. I'm not sure that this was explicitly flagged up on this Board. But it is a whopping 95,409 kg of Nitrovan which, even at the estimated $31/kg, represents a welcome $2,957,679.

Shouldn't get lost in the excitement of Mokopane!

Well done to Fortune and his team.

And also our gratitude for the many excellent contributions on this Board, which have been predicting the Mokopane license for sometime, and which have therefore allowed investors here to benefit from this remarkable company.