Member Info for LionelGreen

Some background/summary of the geological sources of vanadium. It is relevant as to why the Bushveld complex is such an important and unusual source of high-concentration/high-purity vanadium :
https://www.vanadiumprice.com/knowledge-of-causes-and-the-geological-sources-of-vanadium/

The 30 January RNS (Bushveld Vanadium Q4 Operational Update) included the following statement:
"The Company has completed 13 (VM001 - VM013) exploration drillholes, as part of an initiative to increase geological confidence and grade control of the ore mined at Vametco. The results provide evidence of additional resources and reserves at Vametco mine with an updated Mineral Resource Estimate due to be published in Q1 2019."

The 27 March RNS (Bushveld Energy Q4 & Subsequent Events Ops Update) updated this schedule:
"The Vametco Mineral Resource Estimate is now expected by 15 April 2019."

We know from http://www.bushveldminerals.com/bushveld-vametco/ that:
"The [Vametco] ore body is well defined, continuous and dips in a northerly direction at approximately 19 degrees. The mine is based on a JORC resource of 142.4Mt, including 26.12Mt reserves with in-magnetite vanadium grades averaging 1.96 per cent V205."

Are we expecting anything particularly new (and in particular any effect on the SP) with this updated resource estimate, or is it likely to have more of an operational (grade-processing) impact?

Since January 2018, BMN have issued 58 RNS (including 2 GNW). Of these:
14 were issued between 07:00-07:01 [8 of which were operational updates, final results, or Sojitz buyout]
16 were issued between 07:10-11:00 [5 of which were operational updates]
13 were issued between 11:10-14:00 [1 of which was an operational update]
15 were issued between 14:10-18:00 [no operational updates]
Most of the others (excluding operational updates) were related to warrants, brokers, holdings, webinar, etc

Extrapolating, the RNS we are most waiting for are most likely to arrive at 07:00, and almost certainly before 11:00.

Dates/times of the previous operational updates and interims/finals were:
22-Jan-18 7:00 am Bushveld Vanadium Q4 Operational Update
27-Apr-18 7:21 am Bushveld Vanadium Q1 Operational Update
22-Aug-18 2:00 pm Bushveld Vanadium Q2 Operational Update
09-Nov-18 7:00 am Bushveld Vanadium Q3 Operational Update
30-Jan-19 7:00 am Bushveld Vanadium Q4 Operational Update
11-Apr-18 8:30 am Bushveld Energy Q1 Operational Update
11-Jul-18 7:00 am Bushveld Energy Q2 Operating Update
29-Nov-18 7:59 am Bushveld Energy Q3 Operational Update
05-Apr-18 10:30 am Lemur Q1 Operational Update
04-Jul-18 7:00 am Lemur Q2 Operational Update
17-Oct-18 7:00 am Lemur Q3 Operational Update
13-Feb-19 8:30 am Lemur Q4 Operational Update
29-Jun-18 7:01 am Final Results for Period Ended 31 December 2017
26-Sep-18 7:00 am Interim results for the period ended 30 June 2018

@Alfa: you did not pick up on my emailed note, I think. Would you like me to rework it in any way?
Cordially
Lionel

@LondonSouthEast: since you explicitly removed my post this morning, could you please confirm that you considered it to be disruptive?

Thank you in advance for your response.

It is a powerful and an inspiring speech. BMN holders will like to take note of his words at around 33min in, quote
"A group of South African business leaders... initiated what they called the public-private growth initiative... Through this initiative we want to mobilise investment in various sectors of the South African economy. They have already identified 19 sectors, from mining to renewable energy, from manufacturing to agriculture. These industries expect to substantially expand investment over the next five years, and create a VAST [his emphasis] number of new jobs, especially if we can... ensure that the environment in our country continues to be strengthened, and improve the conditions for doing business. [More words on how this attractiveness will be developed]."

By the way, at around 54min, he makes reference to a big oil and gas field off the coast, which he says is expected to be a game changer in terms of energy security.

At around 65min: "Security of energy supplies in our country is an absolute imperative. Our electricity company Eskom is in crisis, and the risk it imposes to South Africa is great... We need to take bold decisions and take decisive action... [and more on this in general terms].... Eskom will need to develop a new business model.... especially in view of the new technologies that are coming up....

On a lighter note, amongst some great dress and impressive hair styles, the camera couldn't resist dwelling on a great Elton John impersonator a little after 57min.

Alfa: did my note arrive with you @editorial?

@Alfa: please see your editorial mail

@Alfa: happy to do this. I could put together something a little more structured, and send it to you at editorial for your review if you agree. Do you have a source you are willing to share and have quoted as your "industry insider", because some of the practical details of the mill processing may be harder for me source?

(3) this issue was further covered in a couple of posts from @Alfacomp on 16Jan2019, which I quote verbatim:
"I had a discussion with Richken yesterday regarding Niobium substitution. It is not a trivial thing to do. Here's a good summary from an industry insider, and I'm not just talking about any old analysts here:-
-----
Vanadium and niobium impart higher strength in carbon steels through very different metallurgical processes. Vanadium has high solubility in carbon steel and stays in solution while the steel is being rolled, only precipitating as a carbide or carbonitride after the steel is rolled and on the cooling table. The precipitation results in increased strength primarily through precipitation hardening but also as a result of grain refinement that occurs due the presence of the precipitates. Increased strength is not process related but rather linear to the vanadium content of the steel
Niobium has low solubility in carbon steel and this feature is used to produce fine grain steel where the majority of the increased strength is due to grain refinement. Nb precipitate during the TMCP rolling process causing fine grain steel to be produced. The strengthening effect is primarily due to grain refinement and is process dependent.
-----
The mill processing requirements for Niobium are much higher - you need a reheat furnace that goes up to 1200 deg C. Most bar mills have a reheat furnace that only goes to 1050 deg C.
Also for the Niobium process you need a high power rolling mill that can produce a minimum of 50\% reduction in cross section on each pass through the rollers (this is a big difference from Vanadium).
The final thing for me is that 90\% of the world's Niobium comes from a single mine in Brazil - if I was a steel mill owner I would be very wary about going to lots of trouble to introduce a new process and spend money on new processing equipment if that relied entirely on a single mine outside of my control. Fine maybe I'd consider it if I already had the equipment sitting around and staff that knew how to run these different processes, but if not, then no chance - I and every other mill owner will just have to just suck up the extra cost of Vanadium, like we would if it was an increase in the price of iron ore, or energy."

@dxgraf: it is a very reasonable concern, which I consider has a very solid response, which I will answer in three parts:

(1) the substitution threat from Nb is considered briefly in the webinar Vanadium 101 which is still available from the front page of the BMN www site: they stated that "this is present as a risk, but perhaps not too significant and risk considered manageable"

(2) world supply of Nb is actually dominated (73%) by one producer, CBMM in Brazil. The following gives further details, and is a copy of @patientvulture post on 28Sep2018:
"Regarding niobium. Actually 3 main suppliers
CBMM in Brazil, Now has a 30\% ownership by Japanese/Chinese/Korean investors. I think this is an investment/off-take arrangement.
CMOC in Brazil. Another example of forward-looking Chinese investment strategy. China Molybdenum bought out Anglo American's interest in this mine in 2016. What brilliant timing, given vanadium strength spilling into niobium.
Third player is the private equity firm Magris, who bought out a niobium mine Niobec in Quebec that the gold miner IAMGOLD had picked up in another transaction and wasn't interested in keeping as it didn't fit its gold portfolio. Think IAMGOLD will be kicking themselves. They sold off a diamond.
Market shares according to Roskill are CBMM 73\%, Magris 15\% and CMOC 13\%. So a tight little oligopoly with CBMM the swing producer (a bit like Saudi Arabia back in the day). Roskill article below suggests that the niobium tap could be opened up in terms of production. Big question is whether CBMM will allow niobium to follow vanadium up in price and so make supernormal profits or whether they will push more niobium into the market and so take market share from vanadium.
They may also want to dissuade new entrants and so sit on the price a bit. Currently, this is what SQM and Albermarle are doing in lithium. By broadcasting big lithium ramp-ups they are hoping to scare financiers away from backing too many new projects. So will be interesting in how quickly niobium prices will follow vanadium prices upward. Roskill article 18 months old but very much worth a read:
https://roskill.com/news/niobium-continues-attract-investment/"

(3) continued on next post...

https://audioboom.com/posts/7158879-aidan-bishop-of-bigdish-and-john-meyer-from-sp-angel
The piece on BMN start at about 10 min. Here are some direct quotes from John Meyer:
"The big news out today is BMN, who reported their Q4 production... EBITDA came in at 107M$ for the year, 39M$ for the last quarter... that's a very good operating profit number... this gives me a lot of confidence... I can see this company going from strength to strength, when you look at the forecast cash flow generation out of this business for this year and going forwards. It's got so much going for it. I really feel this is going to be a leading company in London for the next few years... they only acquired the Vametco vanadium operations just over a year ago, so they've really gone from nothing to huge value generation in what was a spectacular deal."

Key Highlights

* Vametco's sales revenue and EBITDA for the 2018 financial year increased by 142.7% and 349.2% respectively to US$192.2 million (2017: US$79.2 million) and US$107.5 million (2017: US$23.9 million), underpinned by higher vanadium prices.
* Ferrovanadium price averaged US$81.2/KgV in 2018, an increase of 148.9% relative to the previous year.
...Vametco' s realised price is based on the prior month's average price.
...Ferrovanadium price has averaged US$76/KgV, year to date1.
*Vametco's production for the 2018 financial year was 2,560 mtV (2017: 2,649 mtV) in the form of NitrovanTM from magnetite concentrate, compared to previously announced guidance range of 2,600 to 2,650 mtV. Production was impacted by an unplanned maintenance and repairs programme in Q4 at the refractory and cooler girth sections of the plant.
*Vametco's production for Q4 2018 was 657 mtV in the form of NitrovanTM from magnetite concentrate (Q4 2017: 539 mtV), an increase of approximately 22.4% relative to Q3 2018 (Q3 2018: 537 mtV), following the unprotected industrial action from the previous quarter.
*In October 2018 the Company, with the assistance of an independent external consultant, initiated a detailed diagnostic review of the Vametco plant performance. Following the completion of the review in December 2018, the Company commenced an operational Transformation Programme to enhance Vametco's performance.
*The Company has commenced the implementation of the Transformation Programme and expects production levels in the current year to be higher than 2018. Guidance for 2019 will be provided in the Q1 2019 operational update once all aspects of this programme have been scheduled.
*The Company has completed 13 (VM001 - VM013) exploration drillholes, as part of an initiative to increase geological confidence and grade control of the ore mined at Vametco. The results provide evidence of additional resources and reserves at Vametco mine with an updated Mineral Resource Estimate due to be published in Q1 2019.
*The Company has received all assay results for Phase 1 of its exploration programme at the neighbouring Brits Project, which has to date been above/in line with management's expectations. Results of the Phase 2 drillholes are expected to be received in Q1 2019 with a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate in Q2 2019.

Good spot, nick26. The information was updated today (29 Jan), this is what it says at the top:

Mokopane vanadium project, Limpopo 15637
Bushveld Minerals is proposing to develop a new open pit magnetite mine with associated infrastructure on a site located near Mokopane Town in Limpopo Province. The proposed project is situated 45 km north-northwest of Mokopane and 65 km west of Polokwane, within the Mogalakwena Local Municipality in the Limpopo Province. Bushveld currently holds a Prospecting Right (PR) over portions of the farms Vogelstruisfontein 765LR, Vliegekraal 783LR, Schoonoord 786LR and Bellevue 808LR. The PR allows for prospecting of iron ore, vanadium, titanium, phosphate, nickel, copper, cobalt, chrome, platinum group metals, gold and all minerals that may be found in association with these and phosphate ore. The combined PR area is about 10 109 ha. The principal focus of the proposed project is to produce a magnetite concentrate. The magnetite concentrate will be further processed as part of a separate project to produce vanadium.

https://www.l2b.co.za/Search/GlobalSearch#?GlobalSearch_SearchText=1564883&GlobalSearch_Order=1289212

The trade at 13:40:36: 15,000@4.38 (4.30-4.50), shown as a sell, was my buy (at 4.375).

@Alfa: my buy of 100k shares at 40.7p (12:44) still not showing.

...both are correct... the definition of the golden ratio, phi, implies that 1/phi = phi -1

Alfa: my buy of 88,000 at 40.37p (14:50) not yet being shown.

A couple of days ago, patientvulture gave a link to an interview with John Lee, CEO of Prophecy Development Corp, on their US Gibellini vanadium project in Nevada (dated 28 Sep 2018), link repeated here:
https://independentspeculator.com/independent-speculator-interviews-john-lee-ceo-of-prophecy-development-corp/

faramog stressed that it was well worth a listen from 20min, where he (John Lee) is extremely bullish on vanadium. The entire interview indeed gives a quite well-articulated case for the long-term importance of vanadium and current supply deficit (which all LTH on this board are, of course, well aware).

At around 25min he he speculates on the future price of vanadium, and states "I would not be surprised if vanadium makes a run at 30, 50, or even 100$/lb." Although I thought we were already beyond 30$/lb at the interview date, his numbers (for what they are worth) would imply a possible future of up to 100$/lb (220$/kg), assuming I have interpreted his use of the term "vanadium price" correctly.

LionelGreen: 26/07/2019 £100 £100