Webinar 3 May 13:15-14:45 (1/2)3 May 2018 15:53
Hosted by Fortune Mojapelo and Mikhail Nikomarov
As an overall comment, I would say that this really was a Vanadium 101, with an excellent overview of the overall demand, supply, and prospects for BMN and BE, but with little new insights not known to close followers of the company. It consolidated the fact that they have done a careful analysis of the future supply prospects, and the space occupied by both BMN and BE. FM did stress that the Mokopane mining license is "imminent". Here follows a brief summary of the main points covered.
1. Fortune Mojapelo
Will be recorded and available on the www in a few days; slides are available as download, numbers indicated [x]
Why are they holding the webinar?
- because Vanadium is still not well known
- price has grown 5-fold since Nov 2015
- demand comes 90% from steel industry
- also suitable for energy storage, accounting for 0% of V consumption in 2014, 2% in 2017, perhaps 20% in 2020
- China accounts for bulk of V consumption, anchored by the steel demand (itself driven by government regulation of rebar)
- use will be driven by this and other emerging markets
- strong correlation between steel production and vanadium consumption [15-16]
- various details of the Chinese rebar regulations
2. Mikhail Nikomarov
- energy market of tens-hundreds billions of US$ [20]
- VRFB expected to be 10-20% of this total energy market
- outline of VRFB principles [20-21]
- advantages: long lifespan, non-degrading, up to 100% DoD; lowest (levelised) cost per kWh [23]; also safety, response times, re-use at EoL
- examples: Sumitomo (JPN); Dalian (Rongke at 800MWh); Pu Neng (400MWh)
- demand outlook: VRFB is strongly indicated [25]
- VRFB use ONLY vanadium, which constitutes some 40-50% of the battery cost
- if VRFB use captures 25% of the energy storage market by 2027, this will require some 50,000 tonnes vanadium
3. Fortune Mojapelo
- Roskill base case forecast of overall demand = 129,000 mtV by 2027 (steel will still dominate, but VRFB become significant)
- so vanadium demand is robust, underwritten by steel demand
4. Vanadium occurrence
- reserves are dominated by China, South Africa, and Russia
- 88% vanadium occurs as vanadiferous magnetite ores, with the balance in sedimentary form such as oil residues or shales [31]
- most vanadium supply is co-product **** (very capital intensive), mostly (68%) undertaken in China
- however, the future lies with primary vanadium ore feedstock, using the salt roast process [32]... this only useful if vanadium grade is high enough
.. continued