Member Info for LionelGreen

Q15. Why is the SP at current levels (around 11p) if prospects are so good? It was at 49p at the end of 2018, right?
A. This is considered to be a combination of many things, in no particular order:
* a general lack of awareness of the strategic importance/prospects for vanadium and especially VRFBs;
* recent decrease in vanadium price from its latest peak in 2018;
* the company's LSE AIM listing;
* shares issued in placement last year are still (probably) being sold into the market;
* inclusion of the Imaloto coal project (Madagascar), which may exclude the company from green portfolios;
* accumulation and other tactics of market makers;
* South African geopolitics and associated credit rating;
* limited in-depth research by analysts on small companies;

Common views by long-term PIs here are:
* this is a well-run company with big projects and big ambitions, and these take time to put in place
* BMN is currently significantly undervalued
* no stocks rise continuously, all are subject to sentiment and trading patterns
* BMN appears to be a great example of Warren Buffet's principles of (a) finding an undervalued company, with what he described as an "enduring competitive advantage", and then (b) waiting until the less-informed or less risk-averse catch up, which is unlikely to be within weeks or even months.

Q16. Suggested further reading:
A. Company www site:
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/
https://www.bushveldenergy.com

There is also an independent compilation of a large amount of relevant and updated information maintained by BMN private investors (led by Alfacomp)
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/

Key RNS in the past 18 months:
* 01-05-19 Acquisition of Vanchem Plant
* 22-05-19 Vametco Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Update
* 23-05-19 Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2018
* 21-06-19 Brits Vanadium Maiden Mineral Resource
* 21-10-19 Mokopane Mining Right Application Granted
* 01-11-19 Support for redT - Avalon Merger
* 01-11-19 Strategy for partnering with VRFB companies
* 07-11-19 Vanchem completion and funding, with associated increase in attributable vanadium output
* 07-11-19 2019Q3 Operational Update
* 12-11-19 Potential investment in Enerox GmbH
* 19-12-19 Update on investment in Enerox GmbH ("Enerox")
* 20-01-20 Full Year 2019 and Q4 2019 Operational Update
* 09-03-20 Joint Venture agreement with redT
* 01-04-20 Bushveld to hold 8.71% of newly created Invinity
* 04-05-20 Q1 2020 Operational Update
* 23-06-20 Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2019
* 03-08-20 Investment in Enerox GmbH
* 02-09-20 Q2 2020 and H1 2020 Operational Update
* 07-09-20 Vanadium Rental Partnership with Invinity
* 30-09-20 Financing with Orion and Convertible Loan Note
* 30-09-20 Interim Results for six months to end-June 2020

Q17. What are BMN's anticipated short-term future developments?
A. These include:
* increased production, at Vametco, Vanchem, and Mokopane
* VRFB commissioning and contracts, including the ongoing Eskom tender
* progress with their own battery (vanadium) electrolyte plant in South Africa
* JSE joint listing, ongoing
* prospects of moving from AIM to the main market

Q18. There are many posters on this board. Where can a newcomer start in understanding their contributions?
A. There are numerous regular contributors to this board who hold generally very positive views of the company, and whose posts cover many key aspects of BMNs business. They provide their views on aspects including:
* possible future developments;
* technology developments and opportunities;
* commentaries and detailed scrutiny of company RNS;
* mining and mineralogical aspects;
* the worldwide vanadium market (and BMN's vanadium shipments);
* critical assessments of the company's financial and accounting aspects.
* risks associated with the South African economy more broadly;

For new investors looking at this company, the following posters (amongst many others) have very positive reputations amongst the other bulletin board members:
Alfacomp: broad understanding of the business, the battery prospects, and provides frequent comments on the share trades
BigBiteNow: insights into the business model and possible future developments
Loudspeaker: vanadium price monitoring
mogwhy: updates of major VRFB projects
NickDerby: company accounting aspects
Ophidian: technical aspects and insights of the mining and processing
Paludina: tracks and reports on the export/shipment of BMN's vanadium products
Pdub: company and business insights and summaries
Sanchez599: company and business insights and summaries
SloppyGuiseppe: posts on relevant worldwide developments
Tyfoon: South African politics, and where BMN sits in this

My apologies for omissions: there are many other regular and respected posters, contributing their technical, business and corporate insights. It is this collection of accumulated knowledge that has led several on this board to suggest that BMN is the "best independently researched company on AIM".

Q19. What about rampers and ramping?
A. Do your own research, and form your own opinion.

All bulletin boards will have members who enjoy predicting the next leg up, and setting their own price targets for the next day, week, month, or year, whether based on technical analysis, intuition, or simply optimism. You can - naturally - take these into account, or not, as you wish.

I, and presumably many others here, are invested for the fundamentals and for the medium/long term. Experience has shown that it is difficult if not impossible to predict the next price movements, the short-term SP direction led by the market makers, or the next moves of our respected management.

Q20. Why do some posters (generally transient avatars) spend time de-ramping, i.e. expressing negative views of the company and its prospects?
A. It is not always easy to understand why those with negative views of a company should spend their time posting about it. Explanations might include investors who bought in at times of share price peaks and who feel aggrieved that they have made poor investment decisions. More likely are those who, as on all boards, presumably post negatively in an attempt to encourage sellers for a variety of trading reasons (day traders, stop-loss fishers, shorters, competitors, etc).

De-rampers and trolls are usually recognisable by their unsubstantiated and poorly researched statements, an absence of factual evidence, repetitive posts on minor aspects, personal attacks, and frequently poor syntax.

Generally, this is a board that welcomes new and genuine BMN investors attracted by its prospects, but it does respond robustly to those believed to be trying to manipulate the share price downwards.

Q21. In a few words?
A. BMN is a very well-run company, with impressive assets, and exciting prospects.

I hope that this summary will provide newcomers with some pointers to allow them to make their own assessment of the company and its prospects.

Cordially
Lionel

There is an important lesson though: try to ignore any and all posts, now and in the future, which refer to "coiled springs", "can't go lower than", "buying opportunity", "the chart suggests that", "I'm loading up", "we'll look back at this price", enz, enz. Who can know what any individual's agenda really is? Look for and take onboard the FACTS, of which - thankfully - there are many communicated on this boards, and make decisions accordingly. Ignore the emotion, and ignore SP predictions.

Of course, by that token, you should ignore this post also.

There have been some very interesting ideas, thoughts, and observations about the reasoning behind the sell-off. Much food for thought. Here's another observation: is it noteworthy that one or two of our very respected posters with quite some insight into past trading have not so far commented?! Are they all on holiday, or... (smiley emoji here)?

I have no idea what is going on, but I am feeling very satisfied with the company's progress and direction.

I have said before, that I suspect Fortune has so many balls in the air, that he likely has to be very cautious in giving too much away while plans are unfolding. He has done so much to earn our trust and confidence over the past few years, and I'm really looking forward to developments between now and the end of the year.

Today was the original Closing Date for the Eskom contract (Package 1), but this deadline was moved to 30 September
see https://tenderbulletin.eskom.co.za/Tenders/Docs?TENDERID=44754 (Amendment to the Bid documentations)

Thank you, mogwhy.

There are, meanwhile, 61 projects listed under "Technology sub-type = vanadium redox flow battery"

Cordially,
Lionel

This link to the US Department of Energy "Global Energy Storage Database" was just posted by antelope on IES. The xls compilation may be useful to mogwhy for his very useful updates? Those of interest to us/BMN are listed under "vanadium"
https://www.sandia.gov/ess-ssl/global-energy-storage-database-home/

My further take on this, as I've noted before, is that it seems possible that Fortune still wants to play the stonking progress of BMN somewhat under the radar. Perhaps holding onto Imaloto is part of this? And why otherwise would some of the company's NED's city contacts not be snapping this company up? The optimistic scenario is that, when FM is ready, we will see a series of big announcements (as others here have summarised), including the JSE listing, and perhaps the first Eskom-BESS contract.

Then, and perhaps only then, something like fair value might be on the cards.

sharesaplenty: you said "I don't buy the MM conspiracy theories pegging down our SP. Simple economics of supply and demand dictates that if the demand of investors to buy shares is in excess of willing for holders to sell the SP rises."

I do believe that this view of supply and demand defining fair value is likely to be an incomplete one for various reasons.

Take the interesting Jan 2017 Vox Markets interview link posted yesterday by jogj99
https://audioboom.com/posts/5508274-687-prospex-oil-gas-pxog-dekeloil-dkl-and-doc-on-recent-market-mechanics

In it, Doc Holiday outlines the following possibility (from 22min). You can listen to the Doc's actual words, but let me attempt a summary in the context of BMN for those that didn't listen to it:
1. a specific MM takes the view that *most* AIM companies are likely to be early-stage, struggling financially, and overly optimistic in their future (business/financial) expectations
2. such companies are very likely to require a capital raise at some point in the medium term (of order months); to them, it's not a question of "if", but of when, and in what form
3. the shorting desks might target a portfolio of 10 such companies (in this case, BMN would be just one, but not explicitly singled out); and perhaps their shorting strategy anticipates success [in the form of a cash call, see below] with 8-9 of them
4. they then proceed to match any further buys with naked shorts...
5. this activity, effectively holding the SP down, may then go on for months; evidently, they will not want it to go on for months, but once they start, they expect that things will eventually work out in their favour
6. at some point, the SP is allowed to rise, and market speculation may contribute to driving it upwards
7. despite the SP rise, the company will sooner-or-later (they have reasoned) need to raise cash
8. the relevant entity can then offer these struggling companies cash during a fund raise, at a discount to the current SP, and enough to cover their accumulated shorts

The Doc ended by saying that all this (the shorting) can take weeks or months to reverse... as far as I could understand he did not say that this practice is illegal, although it would not necessarily be endorsed by the regulators.

Interestingly, the interview started by referring to a period (in 2017) when 5 companies, including BMN, "have all risen of late, without releasing any news".

Seems plausible to me. And this picture may stack up with Alfa's long-standing suggestion that BMN is being shorted.

If they have (on this occasion) picked on the wrong company (amongst their basket of targeted shorts), and if a fund raise is not imminent, then market forces must eventually be allowed to operate, and they will have to cut their losses, and buy back in at whatever price they eventually relinquish control.

Nice summary Alfa. Thank you.
It's NT to buy on the H-L platform at the moment, even for the quoted EMS (30,000)

... JSE listing date + tender result perhaps also combined with a carefully timed sell-off of Imaloto, so that BMN simultaneously and massively increases its appeal to the green investment funds...

stodgy:
Package 1 (Skaapvlei 80MW/320 MWh): Contract Award 30Dec2020
Packages 2-3, bids due 26Aug2020, Contract Award 25Jan2021
see: Eskom BESS Consultant Tender Update: From the Terms of Reference Document Pages 35-37
https://tenderbulletin.eskom.co.za/Tenders/Docs?TENDERID=44761

AfriTin approaches midway mark at Uis
https://www.internationaltin.org/afritin-uis-midway-mark/
AfriTin Mining has reached a significant milestone in its latest operational update, with tin concentrate production almost at 50% nameplate capacity.

Operations began at the Uis mine, Namibia, at the start of this year. Since they began, all key metrics have continuously improved on site; the utilisation and processing rate of the processing plant have risen by roughly 50% in the 7 months of operations. The measures currently stand at 85% utilisation and 65 tonnes per hour, respectively.

As a result, the headline figure of tin-in-concentrate production has more than tripled, from 7.4 tonnes in January to 22.7 tonnes in July. That brings AfriTin's production to over 100 tonnes year-to-date. However, it also brings the processing plant up toward the 50% nameplate capacity mark. For Phase 1 operations at Uis, the goal is to reach 60 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate per month.

The company are not at full capacity yet though, and are implementing debottlenecking procedures to further improve throughput and tin production. AfriTin has identified a higher-than-expected fine material portion in the processing plant feed, and so is moving to rebalance the material flows. Improvements during Q2 were focused on the fines dewatering circuit and should improve throughput in the latter stages of the processing flow.

Our view: It has been a difficult year for all tin miners, not least new operations that typically endure setbacks, delays, and higher operating costs while operations get up to speed and processing plants are debottlenecked. However, AfriTin have done exceptionally well to push through both a global pandemic and extremely low tin prices to reach this milestone. The debottlenecking plan will likely improve throughput at the processing plant, taking the company closer to its Phase 1 goal.

https://www3.bushveldenergy.com/
see Collaborations and Partnerships:
"BELCO – Bushveld Electrolyte Company is a South African producer of vanadium electrolyte. The company is jointly owned by Bushveld Energy and the IDC. Its first manufacturing facility is under construction and located in East London, South Africa."

Looks interesting, but that's all I could find... it has been there for a couple of months at least.

Very good spot, SloppyG! Brilliant thread title too. It's very encouraging to see some big and weighty backers of a company like VoltStorage. I imagine this move WILL make others sit up and take notice.

... and happy to wait for the next announcements.

For what it's worth, here's my view on the current SP and (perceived) lack of news.

1. Fortune has played a series of blinders in the past 3-4 years. I see no reason not to trust him to deliver more in the future, trust which he has earned through his various results. His recent Crux interview was a masterpiece of clarity, vision, and prudence.

2. The MCAP is fully justified by demand from the steel market alone, as per broker notes.

3. Prospects for Bushveld Energy represent very substantial upside.

4. The SP significantly undervalues the company. I view it as resulting from a combination of present low V price, SA market perception, low company profile [see below], limited wider understanding and confidence in VRFBs, etc

5. Some SP "manipulation" is ongoing, but in my view this is mainly in the short-term trading, perhaps largely algorithmic driven, supplemented by short-term traders. Again, in my view, this does not affect the long-term MCAP.

6. The restricted SP trading range over the past few months can, perhaps, be partly ascribed to the holders of the warrants from the Vanchem deal [as per EnricoPallazzo's post of 13 July]

7. The relatively low current price of V is advantageous for the company: it makes entry for others very difficult, and it offers excellent opportunities for the ongoing take-up of VRFBs.

8. More widespread take up of VRFBs will follow from scale-production *backed by investment-grade warranty* [e.g. as detailed at the IFBF, 30 June 2020]

9. Now consider the many elements that Fortune will be juggling at this moment. These include:
(a) a possible move from AIM
(b) JSE listing, and its consequences (which are themselves perhaps complex and difficult to juggle)
(c) SA and ESKOM politics, and the entry price for SA corporate investors
(d) increasing production efforts ongoing at Vametco and Vanchem, role of Mokopane
(e) monitoring and adjusting strategy with respect to e.g. Largo, other possible new entrants, and possible takeover threats
(f) perhaps helping to stabilise the price of V, to enhance long-term take-up of VRFBs
(g) the timing of a dividend announcement
(g) setting up the electrolyte plant, and the take-up and timing of sales from it
(h) prospective offtake deals with potential VRFB users, including (perhaps) UET, EverFlow, China (Dalian and others), Saudi Arabia/SABIK, etc
(i) consolidating the V leasing model
(j) progressing the issue of investment-grade warranty to back sales of VRFBs
(k) and a number of others

In my view, Fortune is in the middle of a massive game of chess with all of the above pieces, and more. Each will take time to properly prepare. If so, then it is not at all surprising that he is keeping a relatively low profile, and playing his cards very close to his chest, until he is confident that the time is right to announce his next moves. The languishing SP is frustrating, but I continue to be very optimistic about BMN's prospects, and happy to wait

Reminder: Monday 6 July, 09:30 – 16:30 BST
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/uk-rfb-network-online-meeting-2020-registration-105813153992
Quote:
"Join us for the fourth annual meeting and workshop of the UK Redox Flow Battery Network. We focus on redox flow battery research, development and integration across academia and industry in the United Kingdom. It is aimed at establishing and maintaining a vibrant, collaborative and productive RFB network in the UK.
Expect presentations from internationally regarded plenary speakers from academia and industry, research and demonstration presentations from UK researchers, a virtual poster session, business card distribution, and an interactive workshop all in a one-day meeting and workshop!
Registration is FREE and a link will be sent out to all registered attendees on the morning of the event.
See our website for more details."