Member Info for LionelGreen

Can anyone (Pdub?) help me with the following questions (all part of my attempts to understand the current SP).

(1) at about 2m in, Matt throws in a question about "BMN carving BE off". I've probably just missed this, but have BMN actually stated their intention to spin off BE, and do we know anything about the schedule, or the likely terms? Would they be waiting until its value can be better assessed?
(2) do we have any guess as to why FM has not proceeded with JSE listing? What might he be waiting for?
(3) ditto regarding Lemur/Imaloto. The BFS has been long awaited, I think.
(4) given that AIM has been a difficult market for BMN, a move to the main market is presumably not an option at the moment in part because of the current MCAP. But even when the MCAP was much higher, FM did not appear to be pursuing this. Again, is FM just waiting for a stronger balance sheet? What else (apart from timing it with a JSE listing) might he be waiting for?
(5) there was much talk in the past about the commercial opportunities of the Mokopane iron deposits, and we've heard nothing on this recently. I appreciate that BMN will not have the capital to set up their own processing facilities, but might we not have expected offtake agreements?

Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

Today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsXLOrjca-g&ab_channel=CruxInvestor

https://www.energy-storage.news/sumitomo-electric-brings-51mwh-flow-battery-online-in-northern-japan/
One of the world’s biggest vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) energy storage systems has come online on the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido in the last few days.

Technology provider Sumitomo Electric said that the 17MW/51MWh VRFB system it installed to help integrate local wind energy onto the grid has been in operation since 1 April after installation was finished a day earlier.

The project has been commissioned in line with a schedule announced by the company in July 2020, as reported by Energy-Storage.news at the time. It will directly contribute to decarbonisation and increased renewable energy penetration on Hokkaido.

...continues...

Alfa: any thoughts on this you feel like sharing with this board? It seems interesting, but as it's based on the same chemistry, it's not obvious how they are claiming to achieve a superior product?
Cordially
Lionel

A really exciting RNS - it's difficult to imagine a better one could have come from the company at this time. They've moved quickly to determine the production potential of Li and Ta concentrates, shown the mineralogical consistencies throughout resource, outlined a clear path to pilot production of both, and stated that the capital costs of both can be met from existing cash reserves.
The RNS also demonstrates that a lot of work has been done on this over the past few months, pretty much under the radar (at least, under my radar). Yes, a very exciting development indeed.

Cordially
Lionel

Excellent analysis!
Count me in to £1.50... (and beyond)
Cordially
Lionel

@LUKE1444: you are correct, in the sense that Duferco's conversion on 12Nov was from a previous holding on that date of zero shares (as per the TR-1). But the inference is therefore, as mogwhy noted, Duferco must have already fully disposed of their *previous* holding. The question of whether Duferco had been relentlessly selling down their previous share allocation has preoccupied this board for several months (see, e.g. Pickler's analysis of 21Oct), and has now therefore been confirmed.

So, as of today, Duferco again hold 5.31% of BMN shares. The question is now, will they hold, or will they continue to sell these also. Why take the shares if they plan to dispose of them before they increase in value? I'll plump for (a) Duferco holding, at least for the medium term, (b) hopefully an end to at least this round of selling, with consequently (c) a rise in the SP now on the cards. But, hey, WTFDIK, and obviously, DYOR.

That's my understanding, happy to be corrected.

Cordially
Lionel

Worth noting that BMN's RNS has appeared without delay:
5. Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached: 12/11/2021
6. Date on which issuer notified (DD/MM/YYYY): 16/11/2021 [i.e. BMN notified today, BMN RNS'd today]

Cordially
Lionel

@mogwhy Thanks for your updates. Under your referenced USA projects link it's nice to read:

"Three of the four energy storage projects implicated will utilize vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) technology, another milestone in itself. VRB is lesser known but the advantages are clear, slower release for longer duration, longer operational lifespan, and safer due to nonflammable materials. Long duration storage is something that California's energy regulators are calling for as the state prepares for more conventional power plants to be replaced by renewable sources. Once again, CCCE is leading by example and not just among California CCAs, these projects set a precedent for California's investor-owned utilities and the nation's energy industry."

Yes, nicely summarised, and presumably an influential decision as well.

Cordially
Lionel

Good spot jimbo66: it's only a 5 minute piece at the start of the podcast, being a first-hand account of the IES vanadium flow battery at the Energy Superhub Oxford, now operational, but it is super-positive about this major UK VRFB project. He talks about watching the real-time chart showing how much money the battery is making (like it!), and contrasts this Invinity battery with the noise of the air-conditioning system operating with the Li-ion battery (and the associated fire risks for the Li-ion system). Yup, super-positive.

Super-positive stuff.

Cordially
Lionel

@sammy58: In the absence of any detailed knowledge of this sort of trading, my guess is that "recycling of shorts" (assuming that it is possible?) would comprise (a) aggressively selling short into a rising market to suppress any really significant rise in the SP, then (b) buying back in smaller amounts over a longer period when the SP is weak. Repeat as required. No idea whether this is what is meant, and no idea whether it would work in practice, but in the absence of more expert opinion, I'll offer that as a thought. It sounds pretty risky to me. But I can imagine entities willing to take that gamble. And if it's not illegal, why would some with a vested interest in a lower SP not try? Happy to be corrected.

Cordially
Lionel

@Pickler: intriguing and impressive analysis. I have been offering my own thoughts that FM has been intentionally down- playing the progress of BMN for some unknown reasons, and your suggestion offers a very plausible (IMHO) logic behind such a strategy. I re-iterate Pdub's comment that... "if there is substance to it then November could be a very interesting month".

Cordially
Lionel

The last detailed broker note (SP Angel, 6 October) gave a valuation of 33p. In the past, many LTH considered SP Angel's views very conservative. I'll therefore happily take further confidence from their current assessment, which still gives plenty of additional upside for future developments with BE. So, yes, I'm disappointed with the current SP, and the delay in Eskom tenders, etc, but very satisfied with the progress and future prospects here. And there has been a welcome upside to the concerns expressed by TheScholar and Invest.well, which is the re-iteration by our better informed board members of some of the company's fundamentals - it's always good to be reminded of them. Thanks especially to the facts, summaries, and perspectives offered by Pdub, fatbanker, loudspeaker, Bushy100, and others.

Cordially
Lionel

@taufor: since you ask - like most, I am disappointed by the current SP, and especially by the paucity of recent RNS-worthy news from the company. Progress towards the end of last year seemed inexorable, and I had planned to do a monthly update of my Big Picture to assist the orientation of new investors. But the absence of news on BESS , and especially on what we all felt had been expected from Eskom, the lack of news on JSE listing, on Lemur, and various other topics, has certainly given us very little new material to work with, and to comment on. On the positive side, production is steady and increasing, reserves are enormous, and demand/exports are strong. Development of the electrolyte facility is in progress, and will take the time it will take.

I assume that the take-up of VRFBs in Europe has been slower than had been anticipated, but in retrospect probably we should have anticipated that. Experts and decision makers in the field will not be unaware of the prospects of VRFBs, and they must be witnessing the rapid progress and take-up in China with some awe. I still feel that it is just a matter of time before we see a serious market in VRFBs developing, but I'm also aware that "jam tomorrow" has been an overly-optimistic promise. I am surprised that the take-up of VRFBs in UK has been so muted, but there again "UK" and "leadership" do not sit as easily together they once did.

My belief remains that Fortune is juggling some big pieces of a much bigger jigsaw, and all of this is taking time to put in place. Big projects, and big businesses, take time to develop. Warren and I are happy to invest for the long-term in companies with an "enduring competitive advantage". Key progress markers are, for me, the company's RNS, although the research that many still contribute to here is extremely welcome (my sincere thanks to those that continue to do so). Upbeat posts are often well-meaning but perhaps serve little real purpose (at least, they serve no negative purpose unless you buy stocks based on anonymous share tips!), while the trading of personal insults is a sign of our times but can also be ignored easily enough.

I have no insight into Alfa's thinking. I admire(d) him for his technical knowledge, and the huge effort that he put in to assist the company and to assist other investors. I can imagine that being faced with an endless barrage of nonsensical criticism from anonymous keyboard warriors would be immensely frustrating. I assume that the only difference in taking down TBP is that he will be continuing his forensic analysis of the company and its prospects without sharing the results of his work as selflessly as he did before. Our board has been the loser.

I will finish with my own upbeat comment, FWIW: at the back end of 2018, we saw many days on which the SP rose, from a base of around 10p, by 2p or 3p per day. I look forward to the days when we see that sort of price action again, which I expect we will.

Cordial

... who was that buying at 16:36:08 ???!!!

Perhaps that set's things up nicely for Monday!

Cordially
Lionel

Thank you for your clarification, Diamondlover.

I imagine that most "genuine" shareholders must be experiencing emotions ranging from frustration or disappointment through to annoyance or disillusionment.
I guess we all have our different ways of showing it.
I still consider that the fundamentals of this business remain very strong, and am willing to be patient for a while longer.
I would like to think that Fortune recognises that there is a group of LTHs who have strongly supported him and spoken up for him when he most needed it, and that he does again have some masterful strategic plan that will soon be revealed. Perhaps I'm just too naive. Who knows? Not me.

Cordially
Lionel

@Diamondlover:
--- quote
AlfaComp dissapear (that is good), Lionel gone and other may be
They are all nice people but were only one sided, and hammering any other opinion
--- unquote
(a) It is generous of you to put me in the same class of expert knowledge as Alfacomp, although I fear it is not so!
(b) I have not gone. It is simply that I have expressed my opinion as to what is going on on a couple of occasions in the past month, and feel no need to repeat it time and again; I am not out to win converts!
(c) hammering any other opinion? Any specific example(s)?

May I take the opportunity to agree with Sanchez599 on his recent views of the SP, to thank NickDerby for his personal assessment, and to thank the other regulars (Pdub, loudspeaker, mogwhy,...) for their continued fact finding and posting.

Cordially,
Lionel

@taufour: the full paper "Safety of Grid Scale Lithium-ion Battery Energy Storage Systems " can be obtained here
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352158070_Safety_of_Grid_Scale_Lithium-ion_Battery_Energy_Storage_Systems

The other two authors are not, I believe, so evidently pro-nuclear, and I would be more inclined to suggest that in a paper objectively criticising one technology, some caution is requiring in appearing to advocate another.

Good to hear that Alfa has contacted Prof Allison, and I wonder whether his response was positive...

Let me add that I have appreciated your own contributions to the analysis of trades here.

Cordially
Lionel

Excellent solid presentation, although nothing in the main presentation that was not known from the Full Year Results.

I was particularly impressed with the Q&A session, where questions were asked and addressed (although not necessarily with any definitive answers) in many of the areas of concern that have been raised on this board in the past weeks and months: e.g. production costs and reasons for downgraded guidance, ongoing SP disconnect, getting institutional investors on board, communications strategy, Lemur, delay in JSE listing, lack of Director purchases, status of iron ore assets, status of Vametco minigrid, etc.

I revert my opinion to "Strong Buy".

Cordially
Lionel

Just a reminder, as per 7 July RNS
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BMN/investor-presentation-12xllix96vha2wx.html

Cordially
Lionel