Member Info for LionelGreen

On June 9 Engineer Live reported:
Generating clean energy from the rise and fall of the tide has captured the imagination of engineers for decades.....There has been real progress for the industry, with European tidal power recently surpassing a 60 gigawatt-hour cumulative electricity production milestone and over €45m invested in the technology in 2020. For a battery to effectively manage tidal generation it needs to charge and discharge up to four times a day, a duty cycle that would rapidly degrade the lithium-ion batteries that currently dominate the stationary energy storage market.....EMEC has therefore partnered with Invinity Energy Systems, supported by the Scottish Government, to deploy a 1.8MWh vanadium flow battery (VFB) to ‘smooth’ tidal generation and create continuous, on-demand electricity to generate hydrogen. Vanadium flow batteries are a form of heavy-duty, stationary energy storage that are ideal for high-utilization, industrial settings. They provide hours of continuous power, one or more times per day, through decades of service. Most importantly for EMEC, they suffer no degradation of their performance based on the number of charge and discharge cycles they complete. This makes them the perfect candidate for balancing tidal energy’s cyclical generation patterns.

Some extracts from the article posted by DaddyBigBucks:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437087-vanadium-miners-news-for-the-month-of-june-2021

Summary
* Europe vanadium pentoxide spot prices were significantly higher the past 30 days. Wood Mackenzie expects the global energy storage market to grow 27-fold from 2020 to 2030.
* Vanadium market news - Roskill: The vanadium market is set to tighten over the year and more so in 2022. The U.S. DoE has set aside $20m for flow battery.
* Vanadium company news - Ferro-Alloy Resources announces completion of Vision Blue Resources initial investment and appointment of Sir Mick Davis as Chairman. Vanadium Resources Steelpoortdrift PFS delivers superior results.

A Roskill post states:
The vanadium market is set to tighten over the year and more so in 2022, driven by higher demand but also by tighter supply, as Chinese steel **** producers are running close to capacity. Outside of China, incremental supply will also be limited and come mainly from AMG’s new facility in Ohio, USA, and Bushveld’s Vametco gradually increasing its production in South Africa. Roskill believes that vanadium prices reached a low in Q4 2020 and should gradually rebound in 2021.....Vanadium redox batteries (VRBs) could become a major market for vanadium amid growing demand for energy storage, should the technology develop....On the supply side, Roskill does not expect significant tonnages from new projects to enter the market before 2024.

On May 27 CleanTechnica reported:
The U.S. Department of Energy has just taken a big step toward America having an emissions-free economy by 2050 by setting aside $20 million for flow battery manufacturability.....The government’s decision to set aside money for flow battery manufacturability, along with the positive comments from Secretary Granholm, indicates a dedication within the U.S. government to longer lasting, more environmentally friendly batteries like vanadium flow batteries.

On May 30 MINING.COM reported:
A report by IDTechEx states that redox flow battery technology might start to gain field to lithium-ion batteries over the next decade, overtaking the Li-ion battery energy capacity installed by 2031. By relying on a vanadium, zinc-polyiodide, polysulfide bromide or uranium electrolyte solution held in storage tanks, redox flow batteries can store energy from renewable sources, including solar, wind or wave power, and release it when required.

On June 2 The Outsider Club reported:
According to QY Research, the VRFB market was valued at $320 million in 2018 and is projected to reach $4.25 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 38.3\%. Meanwhile, vanadium prices are on the rise. For the year, prices for vanadium pentoxide flakes (used to make steel alloys) are up more than 60\% since December 2020.

@Libero: nice perspective.

FWIW, I'm still working on the assumption that Fortune is intentionally playing this low profile for some longer-term strategic advantage, but admittedly I have no idea what his strategy might be. Yes, he could easily have played the "iron ore assets" card, but he must have chosen not to for some specific reason. He could have disposed (or announced the planned disposal) of Lemur, but he has chosen not to. Again, he must have a reason. With respect to JSE listing, he does not tend to telegraph his future intentions in advance, rather they drop unexpectedly when he's good and ready. It is not easy maintaining boundless enthusiasm for the medium-term future of the SP, but I still consider BMN's assets and potential are enormous and largely unrivalled. I'm still in and positive, albeit (like so many here) frustrated.
Cordially
Lionel

@Sanchez: I know you as a strong supporter of BMN. I therefore take your critical views seriously, and indeed they touch on many important points. FWIW, I share them.

My position over the last couple of years has been that Fortune is intentionally playing a very low-profile hand, in my mind somehow related to deals or plans that he has in the pipeline. But I am afraid my position is changing.

Two years is too long to keep shareholders in the dark for some undisclosed purpose(s). What is happening with the BE deals which MN was so upbeat about? Why are we still holding Lemur/Imaloto such that green funds are excluded from investing? Why are we not raising the profile of the BESS as Largo has been doing so successfully (and, yes, I agree that BMN has more substance)? I could go on.

Some investors can afford to be (almost) infinitely patient. But some are now getting wary of all the jam that is promised, but only tomorrow. It is the lack of any explanations, not the lack of potential progress, that concerns me.

Come on Fortune, it really is time to recognise the support that many large PIs have given you over the years.

Cordially
Lionel

aw, tnx, explains a lot. I saw the upload date of 13 May, and assumed it was recent. My bad.
Lionel

@mogwhy: good spot, thanks for posting. The table on p16 is indeed interesting, both for the possible partners, and for the full listing of RFI responders.
What I found difficult to follow is the emphasis (Section 3.4) on lead acid and also Li-ion supply chain and recycling, but nothing at all on the relevance of vanadium.
Also interesting, as we knew/expected, is the emphasis on job creation in SA (Section 5.4).
Lionel

Mineral resource estimates (across all minerals, including Fe) are given in the Mokopane PFS (table, p16):
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/mokopane-pfs-jan-2016-27

Cordially
Lionel

@Sanchez: commented "The only person who seems to be doing really well out of Bushveld at present seems to be Fortune."

I consider Sanchez as one of the most respected and committed supporters of BMN on this board, and his comment prompted me to look into the relevant numbers.

So I have just gone to the Annual Report & Financial Results 2019 (dated 23 June 2020, on their www site) to quantify this. The relevant numbers are given on p92. I cannot claim to understand the details (which cover guaranteed pay, as well as STI and LTI, and unvested awards). But it looks to me as if FM's total remuneration was 2,872,440 US$ in 2018. In 2019 it was 816,550 US$ + a substantial figure in unvested awards (which I will not give here in case I have misinterpreted).

If anyone who has more familiarity with company accounts could look at these and summarise the annual figures, I would certainly appreciate it.

My provisional reading is that these are big numbers, perhaps justifiable when the shareholders are also benefitting. For the past two years we have not.

Again, there are those on this board far more familiar with annual accounts, and company salaries, and I would value their views.

Cordially
Lionel

Mmm, now that post from SloppyG looks very interesting. FBE should be very helpful in fostering further visibility and progress in Europe.

@mogwhy: I much appreciate your regular major VRFB project updates.
I was not expecting the see the three Eskom BESS packages to be listed in your "planned" list.
Is this just wishful thinking , or have a missed some important announcement?
Cordially
Lionel

BBN: thank you for your reply. Valuable thoughts, and much appreciated.
Cordially
Lionel

BBN: I read carefully through your revised post this morning, drawing a couple of diagrams to assist comprehension. I got there, eventually.

[1] I like to add my thanks to all the others who have so expressed their gratitude to you. Your insights are a great help in allowing us to maintain our continued confidence in this company.
[2] for anyone else struggling to comprehend the tortuous dealings, allow me to pull out what I consider the key point of your conclusions: "Two significant VRFB manufacturers delivered back to the market with off-take deals in place, substantial ownership retained and further outside investment achieved without the need to dilute their ownership stake more."
[3] may I be permitted a humorous aside: there was some speculation a year or so back that you are, in fact, FM. Let me hasten to say that I don't really believe this. But since you are so successful at dissecting and interpreting nuanced statements in FM's offerings, I spotted the following in your post: "Rather conveniently (not planned I assure you), BMN's total $8.8m of sales (again transaction costs noted) in Invinity shares pretty much matches..." It's the "I assure you" that you got me thinking again!!!
[4] may I finally ask a question that will be on everybody's mind: given the massive potential that is so evident in BMN for anyone who really cares to look, do you believe that the SP is being held down in some way, and if so: how and for what purpose? Or are we really just waiting for others to catch up?

Cordially
Lionel

AlastairMcgrift: did you have in mind Peter Oldacre when you referred to Mike Oldacre (perhaps you were thinking of Tubular Rebar...)? I was never clear what PO had brought to the company as "Head of Origination" (?). Two years ago it was stated that "Peter reports to the CEO of Bushveld Energy, and is responsible for the strategic focus and execution of the energy storage business with a view to the growth of assets under management and their ongoing asset management." He came with loads of city contacts. I think he is no longer on the board though?

Excuses if I have this all wrong.

Cordially
Lionel

ukmoe: I think this is well understood in the industry. See below for some background (although not necessarily specific pricings):

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/u-s-vanadium-successfully-recycles-electrolyte-from-vanadium-redox-flow-batteries-at-a-97-recovery-rate/
https://usvanadium.com/solving-the-technical-and-economic-challenges-to-reprocessing-vrfb-electrolyte/
https://www.webpronews.com/whats-next-for-renewable-energy/
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/30/2136800/0/en/Saudi-Arabian-Oil-Company-and-Shell-AMG-Recycling-B-V-Sign-Agreement-to-Explore-the-Feasibility-of-Building-a-Recycling-Supercenter-in-The-Kingdom-of-Saudi-Arabia.html

Cordially,
Lionel

Of course, I echo the sentiments of Pdub. I would imagine that ALL serious investors in BMN want to see Alfacomp return to this board. I am equally sure that the disrupters hope that he will not, and do whatever they can to deflect him.

We should persuade Alfacomp to continue his role as technical guru here, and leave the task of confronting the disrupters to others (who do a better job anyway!). Sloppy is, for me, a bit of a star role model here: he digs out nugget after nugget, presents them without comment, and lets anyone else dissect them if they so wish.

Alfacomp: this is not the time to abandon your 97% of admirers and supporters, and Fortune, for the 3% of irrelevant disrupters.

Come on, Alfacomp, you know it make sense!

Cordially (and, I'd like to think, on behalf of the 97%)
Lionel

wyndrum: I agree with you that the posts here are unlikely to have much influence on the share price, at least directly. My point was rather that the background research and factual posts here are of ENORMOUS value in assisting small PIs, like myself, to gain insight and confidence in the fundamental and long-term merits of holding BMN. Apologies if my post was unclear.
Cordially
Lionel

I looked in this morning to read back over some strange and unwelcome developments over the weekend.

A number of widely respected posters on this BB have together done an enormous amount to bring the facts behind this company to the fore over a number of years. Many of us have greatly benefitted from this shared knowledge, selflessly given. In my own opinion, this is a small but welcome example of society working at its best.

Sometimes the tone of posts is not what we would like, sometimes the opinions are not ones we share, sometimes the style of posting may differ from our own. But FFS, if the content is informative, should we not just gloss over these minor downsides? It's simple to skip over any posts we choose.

There are disrupters too. They are easy to recognise. And simple to ignore, although robust rebuttals are often important and valuable to prevent their intentionally misleading views from taking hold.

For some, BMN has well-defined plans in place and, for them, a wider appreciation of the company's value is only a matter of time. For others, the company has been too opaque as to its plans and progress. Can we not respect both viewpoints as having some validity?

Whether our management is, through inexperience or whatever, paying inadequate attention to PR, or whether it has other priorities, or whether they are following an intentional strategy of maintaining a low profile at this time for some unclear reason (my own hunch), we cannot clearly say.

But when the frustrations rise to such an extent that key people here feel aggrieved by the views of others - who share the SAME vision, the SAME passion, and the SAME belief in the company and its management - we all suffer.

Can I urge that ALL who believe in this company - and in particular those who are presently feeling unfairly aggrieved - take some time out, and then let us return to business as usual asap.

Otherwise only the disrupters win.

And where on Earth is the sense in that?

Cordially
Lionel

Actually, Libero, I had not noticed that change! I did point out (at the same time) that the contact email address was not functioning correctly. I now see that that has also been updated.
So, I'm afraid I can't give you the "Lionel Green" award for that spot, but you certainly get a glowing commendation!

Nope.

I emailed Chika this morning with a minor (but I think useful) suggestion for improving the home page of the company www site. I'm sufficiently impressed with their response and turnaround to report here that the suggestion has ALREADY been implemented.

The rarely given and much acclaimed "Lionel Green Award" will go to the first BB member who, having nothing better to do with their time, can spot the change. I'm going to exclude Alfacomp from this, because he's likely to have spotted it already!
Cordially
Lionel