Member Info for lignumvitae

The market worries about debt although it is coming down & Premier has a valuable discovery in Mexico will high-impact Mexican drilling to come. We don't know what Sierra Oil & Gas fetched but the value of the Mexican assets must be considerable & a realisation of some or all of those assets must be on the cards. Because of the debt Premier's share price has huge operational gearing.

Donald Trump has The Saudis over a barrel [pun intended]. Quite naked bully boy tactics. We will continue to sell you arms & go easy over the Khashogi affair if you keep pumping oil. Effectively a public humiliation for Saudi Arabia which they will not forget. Russia is no friend of America despite the embarrassing love-in they had a while ago. So maybe OPEC will go easy for the present - while Trump holds the cards but they will not forget this. I reckon a modest cut for now but they will bide their time & exact revenge at a later date. Saudi needs oil at $70 & it will come again. Plus prices are getting to a stage where the USA frackers will be starting to feel uncomfortable. This is a good update from Premier & note the 30% 2019 hedging at $70.

Of course we all make future predictions. That is how we arrive at our decisions to buy or not to buy. Based on sales and profits and PE ratios & dividends and growth and the higher ratings that are given to companies that achieve high levels of growth. And then we constantly test our valuations against company specific news & industry specific news.Of course all of the metrics are currently unknown - we are working on probabilities. If the answers to the questions were known with certainty then there would be no uncertainties to measure. That is why, Tracylied, your research is valuable in that it helps to measure the probabilities.

Trying to analyse the trades & whether the market is in balance or over/under supplied is virtually impossible unless one has access to market makers books. It could be they amassed a large book as the price fell & are still working it. So i think the only important factors as of now are [1] the quality of the technology [2] how it stacks up against the competition [3] where it sits in the market [4] the quality of the management & its capacity to deliver [5] cash burn. These factors are all worthy of comment & analysis because they are of fundamental importance. It is possible to sit down & calculate fancy future valuations for Ethernity based on market penetration, sales mix & likelihood or otherwise of dilution. So delivery is the key & this will be demonstrated [or not!] by contracts gained & efficiently executed.

So, as nice big dollop of nil-cost share options for the new CEO. On the basis of what exactly? So far as i can see, all Ms Mesler has provided so far is a few fancy words. Earthport shares are 6p in the market. Dear lady, if you believe in your own talents, open your purse & buy some rather than diluting existing holders. In that way you may earn some respect.

So, who are the "independent" shareholders i respect of the Whitewash vote. Hopefully all holders participating in this fundraise [ie interested parties] will be excluded from voting. This gives truly independent holders power to say - "Look, if this company needs £15m to execute on the future that all you well remunerated directors etc are promising then, fine, let all existing holders participate at the same price". Of course boards & major shareholders frequently act as a cabal - feathering their own nests at the expense of private holders. And what is the betting that, having destroyed the share price we will soon be observing announcements of more "confetti" share options being awarded.

So, on 15 Nov we were told that trading was good & a fundraise of £15m was planned at a significant premium to the then share price of 16p. Now we are told that trading is even stronger & the £15m fundraise will now take place at - must put my glasses on here - ?? 10p. What has changed? No pre-emption of course so holders unable to participate have been mugged & left for dead at the side of the road. Who is the highwayman here - Saint Neil Woodford it would appear. Not a word of apology from the company. Total disgrace.

I have posted before about the dangers facing Kier - ie contract specific & post Brexit recession dangers but i think that a little bit of perspective is required at this point. So - nothing has changed in respect of current trading - fact. Record order book - fact. Market cap last Thursday close - £730m - fact. Equity raise of £250m - fact. Market cap of the enlarged share capital based on yesterday's close - £685m - fact. So they will have an extra £250m in the bank with a cap £45m less than when they started. Even Aladdin would be proud of that. But the essential point to hold in mind here is the shorts. Rumour & viral anonymous posts have led the market to effectively be in collusion with short sellers. In truth i imagine that there are market players actually in collusion. It is said that short sellers are a necessary evil - like maggots that eat away at rotten flesh to cleanse a wound. I don't get it. It someone wants to profit from a negative perception on a company they can use CFD's. Shorts can destroy fundamentally sound companies - they are interested only in themselves - in short [pun intended] the practice should be made illegal. Kier is fundamentally sound & will ride out this turbulence & prosper. A big opportunity for the buy & hold investor.

Current cash balance of £5 million. This is the key metric here in that the company has not been burning it's reserves. This gives BB the comfort of time in executing its business plan. And that is what they appear to be doing - patiently & efficiently building a media company of vision and scale. I think investors are lucky, given the dross & self-serving companies that make up much of AIM, to have a CEO & management capable of and determined to build a successful company.

This rights issue is being conducted in almost indecent haste. Reading through the full announcement & prospectus raises some causes for concern, chief of which is the explosion of net debt. Also it seems to require 5 !! joint book-runners [arm twisters?]. Dividend cover is rejigged which will severely reduce FY2109 yield although should produce a respectable yield for FY2020 +. But this is all dependent on post-Brexit Britain. Forward order book looks strong but how much of this is HS2 related? They are involved in Crossrail which, reading the runes, still has the potential for nasties. Commercial & residential could be subject to unfavourable winds. In construction generally recessions can appear quickly and be long & deep. Whatever they say about the reason for the cash raise i wonder whether they are putting the sandbags in place. Long-term i think Kier is a sound & well run business with potential for share price gains but, short & medium term we could see it much lower.

Thanks for the courtesy of your reply. You clearly research things comprehensively.

You have been posting a lot of impressive stuff on ENET which implies a deep technological & particularly telecommunications knowledge. I am sure that i am not the only user who would appreciate some broad detail of your background. Just helps in putting your comments into context.

The foundations have been laid & this contract represents another brick in the wall. Patient holders should just observe as further bricks are laid. The potential here is considerable - execution is the key. Still very much under the radar, with a market cap only modestly in excess of cash. Still under the radar but if progress continues will not remain so for long.

So - is the rise fake or was the fall fake? I think the rise is probably a reassessment following wholesale selling on the "abandon hope all ye who enter here" basis. Most of those who were badly burnt and never want to hear the word Immupharma again have now exited. There is still a chance that Lupuzor could be a mainstay treatment for Lupus or a niche treatment for a Lupus subset. What was notable about the main trial results was not that Lupuzor performed badly below expectations but that placebo performed greatly ahead of expectations. Now , one would not expect placebo effects to be sustained over any long period of time, otherwise all Lupus patients would receive a little pink pill and everyone would be happy - obviously not the case. So the extension trials could still be very important indeed & i think this is reflected in the FDA approach. So, you pays your money & you takes your chance but Immupharma could surprise us all.

There is still supply available but recent daily deals are very much weighted to the buyers. Who knows when the weak holders will be cleared - maybe soon. With cash almost matching the market cap all we now need is more progress on the operational front, ie more contracts. It is always darkest just before the dawn.

The simple fact for ENQ & PMO is that they are highly geared - so movements in the oil price or other factors move the share price %wise disproportionately up or down. The market values these companies at Market Cap + debt. Accordingly they are both yo-yo stocks - but low & sell high. Only when debt starts to fall materially will a proper re-rating take place. Fact is that anything over $55 per barrel they still make good money - any spike means they make extra good money. Saudi Arabia are on the back foot now because of the Khashoggi scandal but they will want to engineer a return to the $75 - $85 area. Let us not forget that OPEC controls the lever. This short-term fall will persuade the smaller members of the importance of discipline over quotas. Also some funds are baling out of all oil stocks as they perceive oil to be in long-term decline. Personally i suspect that there is a lot of life in the old dog yet.

This has been a very thinly traded stock, under the radar, and these results provide an opportunity for weak holders to exit. The results were excellent and the company is now on a much sounder footing. Of course Zimbabwe is not the UK or Europe and country specific risks have to be taken into account. Having said that big opportunities exist and is the risk really any greater than, say, a disorderly Brexit or an implosion of the Eurozone. What this company does have and what distinguishes it from many Aim companies is an exemplary CEO who aligns his interests firmly with those of the company he runs and with private investor shareholders. So, risks & rewards! A long term buy & hold for those who believe that, at long last, Zimbabwe is emerging from economic torpor and able to take advantage of country specific opportunities & African cross-border opportunities.

With this stock you keep thinking that the seller[s] are cleared & are then hit by another wave. So, instead of good news provoking a re-rating it, instead, provides an opportunity for the sellers to resume their offloading. But could this be it? Could the 11:17 sale of 21263 represent the end of this dumping of stock?

The folks you talk about arctic are "Good Samaritans" only in the same way that Donald Trump is the Angel Gabriel

The key word in your post Todster is "adding". In other words a business that is moving in the right direction. Of course they need to replicate the momentum, month on month, but the signs are hopeful.