Member Info for lignumvitae

Well Arsenal - i wasn't comparing Amazon to Minoan - it was merely a comment about assessing risk. The point is that we now all know your views so why do you continue. This is the question that you simply refuse to answer. Each of your posts essentially say exactly the same. viz Minoan is rubbish, its assets are not worth a bean, it is going nowhere, it is running out of cash. Nobody can fail to understand your position.

Arsenal, it is not a question of dreaming. Of course you are correct in stating that Minoan is a risky investment. Every single share, from Amazon downwards carries an element of risk - as shareholders we all weigh risk/reward in making our decisions. KingofHighbury talks of shared concerns but, to be honest if anyone doesn't know you opinions on Minoan now they obviously do not read this board. So i repeat, what is your agenda? Are you & KoH two people or one? What is the point of this continual barrage of negative comment?

But why are you two Gunners taking aim at this stock. If you think it is a bummer, don't own the shares & have no intention of buying into it then why bother? Why waste your valuable time? So my conclusion is that there has to be an agenda that you are not revealing.

For the purposes of understanding this board i am assuming that ARSENAL17 & KingofHighbury are a double act.

I would be looking for an exit value of £50 million or so - representing in excess of £1 per share. I don't think that is unrealistic.

As i understand it both Lojuxta/Juxtapid & Myalept key patents expire in US 2027 & EU 2028. Approvals for new conditions may extend these dates. The presentation on Amryt's website is worth reading. In particular look at the comparator companies in the rare disease space ranked in order of sales - then look at their current market caps & the implied post capital raise valuation of the merged entity and, as they would say in America, "do the math". I realise that this is rather a crude valuation methodology but instructive nonetheless. All posters seem to have written-off AP101 but Amryt still seems to have faith & so the contingent rights could be valuable. Do holders retain these rights if they sell the underlying share? - That i do not know. As to the capital raise i calculate that this will take place at in excess of 20p - simply calculated by extrapolation. So this is the opportunity for the much vaunted Amryt management to prove themselves - hopefully to the advantage of PI's.

Seriously, the shorts have got this in their sights. However the Bovis approach to Galliford may give them cause to pause.

I have called my canary Kier because it is not the only thing going cheap-cheep

The Bovis approach highlights the undervaluation. Galliford has very much been caught up in the negative sentiment affecting the sector. Brokers are still positive. Given the background a bid at around £7 - £7.50 could succeed but it would be on the cheap. Expect a jump on Tuesday.

Seems that Friday cleared the overhang of shares that has been providing such a hangover! All we need now is news of further alliances & tie-ups to drive this stock materially higher. This could be a mirror of Earthport - friendless at 8p then a bitter takeover battle driving the final exit price to around 40p

They have stated that they intend to go for a NASDAQ listing. Another underpinning is that the contingent rights accruing to existing Amryt shareholders in respect of AP101 create a disincentive for those holders to sell into any early rerating

Bronxville, i really think that you worry too much. Amryt will have done their own risk assessments & the BOD has a lot of experience. It is possible to worry yourself to death if you conduct forensic investigation into every aspect of the deal. Anyhow holders are all locked-in for now. Upon readmission holders who feel the risk profile is too high can always sell and move on.

This looks to be a transformational deal. The enlarged business will have scale & note the proposed NASDAQ listing. If i am reading this correct the fundraising will be at a price of above 20p. Also note the contingent rights attaching to current Amryt holders re AP101 which could be hugely valuable. Suspended pending publication of the admission document & for which we may have to wait some time but reasonable to expect a considerable uprating.

The building blocks are still being put into place. This is a business on the up. Obviously risks remains but patient holders could be well rewarded.

I wonder whether some corporate action is in the planning? Toople has a main market listing & a much admired operating system in Merlin. Could it be the route to market for XLN? A larger company which shares much of Toople's ethos and scores high for customer satisfaction. Such a tie up would certainly be a potent rival to the majors.

As i understand it the shares are XO [ex offer] & therefore shares sold now are still entitled to the offer

There may well be longer term opportunities here but undoubted risks abound. The RNS makes clear that whilst the offer price at .0125 is at a considerable discount to the prevailing share price it is nonetheless at a material premiun to existing NAV. So at todays close of .036 ex offer this implies a market cap going forward of in excess of 300% of NAV post the offer. Now assuming that any reverse takeover target is not connected with the existing board this would imply them accepting new shares at such a premium which seems unlikely unless the valuation placed on the target is itself ambitious. So, given that we have no crystal ball, risks abound for PI's.

I think that the answer to the question is: Yes

Went XO @ 8:00am today so, yes, i believe you have an entitlement of 10m under the Open Offer even if you sold the total of your existing holding. IMO.

Surely not correct - as i understand it the shares go XO at 8:00 am today so any purchase today will not qualify for the Open Offer. So, as for today, this will not be a bird soaring into the sky but Icarus plummeting to earth.