Member Info for lignumvitae

FACT: Mark Crossley is the CFO FACT: He has bought 63291 shares. FACT: This represents some £38000. So, even if no news is imminent this is a positive.

So they intend to revisit the Senior Note offering when market conditions improve "later this quarter". But what if they don't, what if they get worse? Pretty much a hostage to fortune. This could get nasty.

Bitcoin is the Canary in the mine of world currencies. It senses fear ...... It sings, "Bitcoin, Argo, Cheap, cheap, cheap ....

The recently announced share options are exercisable @ 21.2p.

All of the indications are that the world's major currencies are about to be further debased & the Boris / Donald axis will be at the forefront. Bitcoin refuses to lie down. Believers in crypto smell blood.

So, directors' buying at 1.1p. Currently the SP sits at a 50% premium to this price. So, should we treat this as a green light to push the price higher? Hmm ? Personally i think that would be more like "ambler gambler".

Woodford or Placing or both ?

Well, dividends are off the table for the present & a good thing. Cash inflow & not outflow are the priorities right now. And i have read the RNS pretty much in full & clearly take more comfort in it than others. I suspect that when the new CEO ordered the end June property valuation he instructed the valuers to offer no "hostages to fortune", ie it is a rock bottom, distressed valuation. Effectively a form of kitchen-sinking. As to the two NAV's i am not sure that i fully understand the difference in methodology between the two but let's take the lower of £2.10 & we have a 75+% discount. Also, as they make sales, they seem generally to achieve premiums to book value. So i believe that the company will slowly work its way through its problems. Whether they can achieve this within the quoted sector it is difficult to say, in that a bid from Peel Holdings of £1 per share may have a chance of success. So while the share price may drift a little lower my personal opinion is that a purchaser at these levels will have a good chance of significant percentage gains.

Once the market starts to believe that Kier is a survivor then the shares should trade comfortably above £1 whilst the transformation of the company takes place. Disposal of Kier Living would add a large measure of reassurance. Contracts are still being won & infrastructure spend is a well trodden path for economies facing difficult times. Good stewardship is required but Kier could be in the foothills of a slow but steady climb to £3 or so. Patience will be required of course, a quality in short supply among most traders.

I see the Geocurve JV as a significant positive. Hopefully this will signal a slow but sure recovery in the share price. Much needed !!

Firstly an excellent new finance director. In the circumstances the retiring FD was tarnished. So this is an overall positive. As to the trading update clearly we are in a period of transformation but: Net Debt is better than the market feared - Kier Living seems on track for disposal which should materially clear debt - trade payable times are probably now industry leading [even if forced upon the company]. And if we were trading at equal or better than last year the shares would obviously be significantly higher and not trading at merely 1.5 X last years final div. Also trade sources indicate that contracts continue to be won. Could be the start of a recovery.

Markets are unforgiving at present which makes it more important than ever to look not just at the headlines but also between the lines. Doing so it would seem that short term challenges have been & are being addressed and that a quiet transformation is taking place + cash is not an issue.

Reading the runes you sort of feel that this stock may be turning the corner. A disheveled dog of a share now being groomed to take its place at Crufts. Risks abound but could be quite a ride.

There is one word that i take from Friday's announcement and that is Buffet. Buffet = long term commitment. So this is the starter and the main meal will follow.

OK Yesman. If you refer to the Preliminary Results announcement of 29 April it states that following the completion of the Oncomed merger on 23 April total cash resources at that point were £53.9m. Happy hunting.

OK, so once you go out on a limb there is the danger that the branch will snap & you will end up on the ground looking and feeling foolish. Nonetheless i am prepared to say that, in my humble opinion, this stock appears to be dirt cheap.

Cash @ 23 April 2019 was £53.9 million - yes, burn is high because the product portfolio is very deep & in due course a raise will be required BUT NOTE - consistent director's buying in the market, both London & on Nasdaq & and it would seem that all options are priced at a premium as are all warrants so none of the usual freebies there. The people in charge here are prepared to risk their own money & seem a cut above most management teams.

If the timetable is running to time then the Admission Document should be literally a few weeks away.

Seriously - has nobody truly posted on this stock since October 2108? That is not just "off the radar" but lost in space! On the face of it this stock has to be cheap/ What am i missing? Yes, I know that Woodford has 30% or so but value is value.

And let's not forget the current metrics. T/O for 2018 $4.6m with that for 2019 expected to be higher. Cash at 31.12.18 of $15+m. Works with global leading agencies. Ongoing discussions with significant enterprise clients. So this is not a start up. Further funding will be required but this is probably better achieved away from the glare of the stock market.