Member Info for lignumvitae

So who is this Stephen Perring guy who has popped up with 4%? Presumably this is the guy who purchased the 210000 on the 19th Dec. I notice a Stephen Perring associated with Pollen Street Capital. Any connection? Interesting.

Anyone looking for a reason for the price moving higher need look no further than [1] Look at tthe pipeline [2] look at the considtent director & PDMR buying [3] stock overhangs take time to clear but once done with the buyers take the stage & [4] even after the rise market cap is only £47m. This is not just about brittle bone disease, it is a potential major in its embryonic stage.

The big trade of 210,000 at 33.5 is almost certainly a buy executed between 11.12 & 11.36 on the 19th. I suspect that this was a negotiated trade that took out a large part [maybe all] of a stock overhang that has been around for some time. Steady buying demand should now result in a gradual rise in the SP. Any significant demand prompted by further news would accelerate the rise.

Despite all of the evidence being laid out before it, the market has been very hard of hearing when it comes to PCI. The company is still only capitalised at £14.5m. It now has a complete suite of products in its chosen area of expertise &, crucially, appears to be gaining acceptance in the USA. This is a payment protection company making strong progress & appears, IMHO, to be woefully undervalued.

I would recommend that PI's not only read the Trading Statement of 15 November but also read between the lines. I think that much work to reorganise & redirect Kier has already been done & whilst much remains to be done the direction of travel is becoming clearer day by day. Regardless of individual politics the thumping Conservative election majority can only be good for Kier - business friendly with a declared focus on infrastructure. Also with large gains in the Midlands & North quite a different constituency of voters to satisfy. This is one of my shares for 2020 & beyond. Initial price target of 120 & hopefully steady share price appreciation thereon as realisation of its rebirth gains traction.

It is no use being invested here if, like many AIM investors, you have the attention span of a hyperactive gnat. To my mind the management are carefully & patiently putting together a worthwhile media / consultancy business. There us no need for a RNS every time they cut their toenails. Clearing up the old Widecells legacy business has clearly been more difficult & time-consuming than anticipated but they have not cut & run. They have stated that they will avoid unnecessary dilution & meaningful revenue generation is close at hand. There may be old Widecells money in this that just wants out & we are, of course, approaching the end of the year, a traditional time for "housekeeping". I believe - & this is purely a personal opinion, that this could be one of the success stories of 2020. Of course, detractors may believe that it will crash & burn. As the saying goes, "You pay you money, etc ...

A rerating of SAV must surely take place soon on the back of an up-to-date market appraisal of Mutumba now the permitting process is virtually complete. Indeed, one might well conclude that the rerating process is overdue.

We now have fully funded refined Phase 111 trials for Lupuzor. The potential reward is some way in the future but, if realised, could result in a company valuation running into the hundreds of millions. So what to do in the meantime with the limited cash resources available? In the interims announcement we were told of plans to license, divest or spin-off the Ureka & Elro subsidiaries & i feel these should be accelerated. The shareholding in Incathera can be retained as a punt on their future success. Focus should then be on a significantly downsized operation concentrated upon further development of the P140 peptide programme from which Lupuzor derived. Cash burn will then be minimized whilst we watch & wait.

Essentially this deal represents the rebirth of the company.

Any reading of and between the lines of the Trading Update of 15 November leads me to believe that Kier is firstly a survivor & will then move on to prosper. I had my doubts about Andrew Davis but now believe that he is providing capable stewardship. All fat & excess is being stripped away & we should soon start to see the benefit in a reduced debt figure. Sales of KL or property assets will accelerate the reduction. Indeed i believe that 12 - 18 months ahead we could well see net cash or negligible debt. Admittedly shareholders will probably have to wait for 2021 before seeing a resumption of the dividend but this should be made up for by steady capital appreciation.

A welcome clarification but this underlines my frustration with EUA. Instead of all of these interviews etc & Pi's having to delve anywhere & everywhere to stitch together multitudes of information sources to get a complete picture would it not be sensible to have from the company an update RNS, approved by the board and all of its advisers. We understand that no transaction is guaranteed - we understand that early stage discussions cannot be discussed but essential information could and should be confirmed or updated as necessary. Then PI's would be on much more solid ground and much of the fruitless speculation removed. And as to solid information here would be a start: [1] Current production at West Kyltim - is steady state production of 200 oz per day still the target - what is the progress on mining costs - what are the refining costs and [2] As to Montechundra confirm what the reserves are believed to be and where the figures come from & how much veracity can be attributed to them ie What figures come from the old Soviet era resource calculations. [3] and finally it would be nice to know that all of the BOD are singling from the same hymnsheet.

I like to think that the longer the apple remains on the tree then the juicier it will be when it finally falls. But, of course, that may just be wishful thinking.

Quite correct Paulo - very difficult to find the real stuff amongst the welter of confetti

... just following up. All of these links were given in "trading123321" post of 11:45am today. Essential reading if you are interested in this stock & want to form your own opinion of valuation.

Thanks "trading". This bringing together of so many information links is extremely useful to PI's trying to separate the woods from the trees. I valued the Kommersant piece from September as it was giving a Russian perspective, and who better to understand a Russian mining venture thsan Russians! I think that this article would support a Russian bid for a Russian asset, ie MT [& the favourite has to be Norilski] of some $500m. Advisors have to be remunerated of cf course & there is taxation depending upon how the deal is structured [see my earlier posts] but i estimate net value of some 8p per share, Remaining assets i reckon to be worth the current SP. My assessment, for what it is worth.

As i have said before, if we did have an asset sale, ie Montechundra then the most tax efficient [& therefore profitable for PI's] method would be a demerger of MT followed by its takeover & Pi's therefore retaining their EUA shares constituting interests in West Kyltim etc.

My point is that the company gain would be taxed upon the company & thereby reducing the amount available while the dividend would be taxed on te individual, either as Capital [if a capital distribution] or as income [if a straightforward dividend]

Hurrah ! This board has suddenly become a proper discussion board agsain instead of some sort of social media page. So here is another point: It has been suggested that a sale of Montechundra would trigger a special dividend. Seems hugely tax inefficient to me. If MT is housed in a subsidiary then surely the best option would be to spin it out to shareholders & then structure it as a takeover. Then received as a Capital Gain direct to holders irrespective of their tax domicile rather than a company [EUA] gain subject to double [company & individual] taxation.

On the one hand we have a plethora of information - past RNS's - Optiva research from Oct 2018 - Podcasts & Interviews containing some solid info but also a lot of nods & winks & nudges. So there is the danger of out of date information giving rise to assumptions & then assumptions being built upon assumptions & all the time being uncertain how much is rooted in reality. On the other hand we have too little info in that what PI's really need is an update bringing all of these threads together so that investors can make solid judgements of value based upon the latest facts. Now the general view gaining traction is that the most likely development here is a sale of the greater Montechundra area - ie the original acreage & the flanks which contain the majority of PGM reserves. Nobody seems to have told us how much credence we can give to the old Soviet era resource calculations. My personal opinion is that these were most probably prepared to a very high standard, equivalent to JORC but it would be nice to know, particularly as one of the nrew advisors, remunerated by a chunk of equity transferred by DS is qualified in the very area of expertise. We do not know, nor would expect, to be provided with details of current, ongoing negotiations but we are entitled to be made aware of the building blocks of valuation. Also, if the target is a disposal of Montechundra then a very useful tool for PI's in assessing a MV now north of £100m is to try and make a judgement of value for West Kytlim - the producing asset that woyuld remain. In his last interview DS indicated that since the company had taken full control of the mining operations daily production had been at a maximum of 200 oz and that the focus was achieving this daily rate as steady rate production. On this basis it is possible to calculate, at least, a crude valuation of WK. Lets say a steady rate daily production of 200 oz is achieved for a 7 day per week operation with a mining season of 9 months of the year. Take a PGM basket price of say $1300 with a mining cost of $500 [DS said, i think 400 - 500] & say $200 for refining [i think this is extra & my figure is a shot in the dark & maybe excessive - interestingly they use, i think, the nearby NN refinery which gives Norilski an insite!] and, on that basis i arrived at a Gross Profit of some £36m per year. Overheads & directors remuneration to come out of this & of course taxes BUT - it seems to me - that the resultant NET PROFIT could well justify or exceed the current market cap. So this is a solid bit of information that the company could provide, ie what is current WK production - is it still the belief that steady rate production of 200 oz per day can be achieved & what is the expectected timetable? Also an indication of refining costs would be welcome. Now i realise that other PI's may have done much more research than me & be able to correct any mistakes i have made or fill in some of the blanks but, it seems to me that if the ....

I realise that it will vary year-to-year but does anyone know, with reasonable accuracy the length of the mining season for Eurasia's assets. I am sort of assuming that about 3 months are lost during Winter & that they therefore have production for some 9 months of the year.