Member Info for lignumvitae

Next announcement is lilely to be a partnership. Could be with a major.

M&C is trekking towards all time lows. In addition to the financial misreporting & the ongoing FCA investigation we have the hammer blow of coronavirus trading headwinds [more of a full blown gale than a headwind]. So what a time to have your £36m banking facility up for renogiation on 30th Apri. The market smells blood.

Look at Rock Rose announvement today & their cash balances. I wonder whether a farm out to RR or maybe RR simply deploy some cash to buy them out. Remember their opportunistic bid for Independent O & G which failed. Both i3 & I O&G are next door to RR.

My personal opinion is to keep the faith. The genie is out of the bottle & unlikely to be put back.

Worry not RedB - I saw an analyst comment that sales of dresses etc would fall off a cliff as no woman will buy a new dress if there is nowhere to go. Whoever he [& it must have been a he] was then he doesn't understand women! Of course nobody is buying anything, other than provisions in the "panic" period but once that has passed [is passing?], sitting at home with nothing to do then it will be a different matter. Enormous opportunities for SOS. Nonethleless would have been nice to see the BOD cutting their remuneration & dipping their hands into their pockets to pick up some cheaop shares.

I am no scientist but as for the maths: 10000 tests per hour = 240,000 potential per 24 hours. The big problem for those who call for widespread NHS testing for front line staff is that any one of us is only as safe as the last person that they had contact with. So whereas the antibody test is excellent for onetime testing to prove any previous infection the GDR test provides the facility for repeat testing, ie those NHS staff to be tested weekly, thus giving reassurance to staff and patients alike.

The proposed fundraise was underwritten so clearly a rights issue. But the underwriting was only on a "stand by" basis which, it seems to me doesn't really mean anything. It is saying " we agree to underwrite but on terms to be decided only when we know the price". I do not think that COST have any responsibility to them or to their advisers who basically said "let's fly a kite" only to see it promptly shot out of the skies. Frankly the advisers should be ditched for such a cavalier approach in a febrile market. And, as for the putative stand-by underwiters I suggest that they employ some social distancing. This company is far from being a dead duck but for rehabilitation to take pace a long period of good stewardship & recognition of their shareholder base is necessary.

The point about GDR is that , despite its modest size, it has credibility. The pathogen deat with the US defence is proof enough of that. And the HCV field test, although not yet achieving sales traction, has undoubted utility. The Antibiotic Induced Hearing Loss test, currently in NHS evaluation could become the defacto test in developed health service settings globally. After all, if a baby suffers hearing loss because of an inappropriate antibiotic when there is a readily available loss, then the costs of compensation for a lifetime disability is enormous. Now we have the Covid-19 test assay & this will be taken seriously because GDR is a serious and respected company. None of this will be lost on the American majors, Abbott Labs - Baxters - Becton Dickinson. And the market cap is derisory for such potential - the current news being merely the trigger for a re- evaluation. So, expect a partnership or even an opportunistic takeover approach which, I feel, would have to be north of £50m.

So, current MC is £11m. Bearing in mind a credible company with a credible, high throughout test for Covid-19 just weeks away the potential is obvious. If Covid-19 represents potential Armaggedon then the GDR test is ammunition to take into the battle. I think that a perfectly realistic market cap as of now would be £25-£30m.

Accurate & high throughput test. This is gold-dust. With a current cap of little over £5m GDR is heading for the moon.

Whatever is wrong with lse. Share deals only uo to 11am - same on Friday. Woeful.

A Budget plus for AFC was the removal of the red diesel subsidy for all commercial users other than agriculture from 2022. AFC's plans for generators now become even more attractive for industry in gneral & civil engineering firms in particular [who, of course, work on very slim margins].

This company has now lost all credibility. What a totally incompetent way to go about a fundraise, especially as it does not appear to be wholly necessary. To think that advisers are being paid loadsamoney for lousy advice.

Liquidity constraints should not be a surprise, the question is how & whether they can navigate the. The relatively good news is that there is not, so far, a share suspension. With this stock now you "pay your money & take your chance". At worst a wipeout & at best, over time, a return of multiples of the current price.

Well, there seemed no neccessity for a fundraise & by dangling it before the market with no figures attached this apology of a company has managed, as I write, this to have destroyed £55m of market cap in the pursuit of £100 of inflow.

Fully underwritten fundraising to raise c£100m. Presumably a rights but on what terms? If underwritten then presumably the terms have been agreed but I do not see what they are? Am I missing something? Seems weird to me - what a way to run a company.

This is my report on Kier's Progress this term:
Kier has made solid progress in the last 6 months but resolutely refuses to varnish his achievements. If he had a light & a bushel within reach I am sure that he would, instinctively, hide the one beneath the other. His success will be measured by the realisation of his projects. On a personal level I believe that his student debt is still too high & this may weigh on him somewhat. He has his critics in class, the Shorter brothers but, I believe, he is determined to prove their criticism misplaced.
Looking forward he has a solid body of work in progress, not least his majot HS2 project which should now start bearing fruit. Having said that he prefers collaborative projects within his "framework" efforts which will, I am sure, be of considerable long-term benefit.
As to his debt I know that he plans to reduce this by passing on responsibility for his "Living" project to another. This will, I am sure, be a considerable weight off his mind & will enable others to view his overall achievements more positively.
Finally, Kier is one of those understated boys who does not shout his progress from the rooftops but allows it to speak for itself. I will follow his future progress with interest & believe that he may surprise many.

The market shake-out has let the shorters off the hook. Uncertainty & panic are meat & drink to them. But results are just two days away. Let's see how it pans out but, for the shorters, their own uncertainty is the actuality & tone of the results announcement. I would expect covering to recommence from today pm. Only my assessment of course.

Drawdown - my personal opinion is that there is little doubt that recessionary trends are now firmly established. For the UK I think thsat we were heading for recession in any case & are probably now to all intents & purposes, in recession. But governments are there to manage the situation as they find it. FDR dragged America out of the depression with an infrastructure blitz & the temptation will be to do the same. Governments can borrow in circumstances where individuals can not. What is more they can borrow long-dated at low coupon. Companies benefitting from infrastructure may well be one of the few places to prosper if serious recessionary conditions take hold.

I eo not think that investors should panic [although panic is not necssarily irrational], but nor should investors be complacent.
The point about coronavirus is that it is new, it derives from the animal world, there is no immmunity within populations from previous infections & there is no certainty that it will not mutate.
The big problem for the world economy is that this is happening at a point when a long standing bull market is long in the tooth. And there will undoubtedly be an economic impact - quite how large remains to be seen.
But the question here is whether this in unduly negative for Kier. The time hounoured policy response in times of steep economic stress is infrastrucure spending - particularly when governments are able to borrow low &long. So, in my opinion, the prospects for Kier remain positive over the short & medium term.