Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
bapuk: Basically it had just become massively oversold. This is not a company that hypes itself. The slow move upwards before the RNS was probably due to those who have followed the company being aware that its technologies had possible utility in the current Covid-19 pandemic.
I have studied the RNS - I have studied Artemis & note that they will still have skin in the game with their shareholding. I have studied the posters, both those supporting this deal and those who have doubts. I have compared with Eurasia where I have some knowledge. My personal conclusion is that this is cheap with a market cap of £6m on the increased share cap post completion. Compare with Eurasia cap at suspension & also compare the reserves. There is a disconnect somewhere. Either EEE is far too cheap or Eurasia ran far too high. I acknowledge that more funds will need to be raised but I expect most of the development spend to be via debt or a royalty financing agreement or both. Also I note the benefit of being in a mining friendly jurisdiction. Altogether & assuming that the deal concludes smoothly then I do not see 6 to 10 pence as being particularly outrageous. All my personal opinion of course.
Seems to me a bargain entry point into the Platinum / Palladium space & in a stable, mining friendly jurisdiction.
For: MKumar - they will certainly be aware of Israeli progress as one of their collaborators via Immugenyx [the subsidisary that holds the hymanised mice technology] is Orgenisis - NASDAQ quoted but an Israeli company. Orgenisis is closely associated with Professor Sarar Furber & names do not come much better than that. I have posted before about Orgenisis & how their own programmes link with HEMO's - all available in my posting history.
As to the query about a vaccine : No, that is not what this is about, or not yet at any rate. It could possibly move in that direction but essentially this is a treatment. Consider how probiotics are used to counter bacterial invasions & you get some idea. By introducing engineered antibodies EMO plan to send in reinforcements to enable an individual's immune system to mount an effective defence. It is all about viral load & the body's capacity to defend itself.
Consider the possibility that an effective treatment such as this would considerably reduce the need for ventilators & considerably reduce the numbers sadly succumbing to this disease. In other words it could be, as other posters have said, a game changer.
And remember that an effective vaccine is not a given.
Well, the placees get in at 0.5. The Primary Bid offer at the same price remained open for all of 34 minutes. Effectively zero window for PI's so effectively a stitch-up.
Must be 2 billion shares in issue now & this will cap any short term rise.
Value will only now arise for PI's [ie, unlike placees & the Primary Bid investors who must have been "primed" to react so quickly] if the company really delivers. At 1p the company values @ some £20m backed only by promises.
PI's have been the cannon fodder for Xeros & so my advice, for what it is worth, is "beware".
Firstly the RNS of 22 April: Grown up brokers for a grown up company.
Secondly the Antibiotic Induced Hearing Loss test:
The vast majority of babies going into neo-natal intensive care require antibiotics. For some the wrong antibiotic causes deafness. So, if that happens & the family claim negligence what is the insurers first question. Did you do the AIHL test & if not why not? So testing in all advanced demographies is likely to be mandatory. This is the only test on the market.
GDR is capitalised only at some £25m. In my opinion there is a significant disconnect here. Leave aside Covid & we have a company that is undervalued on the basis of AIHL alone. All my opinion of course.
Farmers , plantation owners, are very conservative people. They only change methods of operation when they have been convinced, either by demonstrable benefits or by recommendation from other growers.
So, this type of evidence is essential & represents the firm foundations of the company.
All credit to BM. The years of patient building are now about to bring their reward.
If the junior pharma sector is the oyster then HEMO is the pearl. Understated, careful with its funds, making announcements only when there is something of substance to report.
The link in the RNS is to the 24.06.19 announcement that I have referred to in earlier posts [can be found easily in my posting history]. Much more detail in the humanised mice programme can be found via the Immunenyx subsidiary.
Covid-19 becomes critical when the viral load overwhelms the immune response. Delivering antibodies is like sending in reinforcements. These are the good guys!
And, the point is, they are developing a treatment platform not only for this pandemic but for future threats.
And, quite apart from all of the above, HEMO's leukaemia [AML] programme is a source of quiet excitement within the company.
With junior pharma's "you pay your monies & take your chance" but, in my very humble opinion, HEMO could be about to deliver upon its huge potential.
A most impressive RNS which shows the sheer professionalism of GDR. But the words that stand out for me, in the context of value are:
" ... which we believe places us amongst the small group of companies that have the capability to produce simple assay solutions at significant scale" - emphasis on "small".
They forecast a product ready within 5 weeks which i suspect means that they expect to have it ready slightly before then - say 4 weeks , ie around 18th May.
Potential from here is still very significant.
Weak holders are taking the opportunity to sell. So wave them goodbye & say "have a nice day".
Then, if you have the patience, sit back and hold for long-term value.
Immugenyx is a Hemogenyx subsidiary. Google Immugenyx & click onto "Immugenyx - Hemogenyx Pharma".
It concerns the hunanised mice programme ApbHC & contains the statement "A tool for the repid generation of human antibodies in response to human-specific pathogens"
Now Nasdaq listed Orgenisis has an alliance with Immugenyx/Hdemogenyx - Check there 30 March announcement re Bioxomes and the bit "where we can deliver antiviral payloads".
My presumption is that the antivoral payloads would consist of antibodies. Are they talking - I would be surprised if they were not.
And, regardless of any Covid-19 value, my belief is that the current market cap is more than underpinned by the clear progess they are making on the AML (leukemia) programme.
In my humble opinion HEMO is one of the potentially most exciting junior pharma on the market [main market by the way, not AIM].
As of Monday morning AML will be wheeled out of the garage and onto the starting grid. There will be lots of words with the driver & some throaty roars as it is started up. Then a nice gentle formation lap with a little bit of snaking around and where we can appreciate the purring of the engine. Then battle can commence. The nasty tactics of the derampers trying to force it off the track. Lots of thrills & spills but the skilful pilot slowly but surely weaving through the field. This race will play out over a long time but i wait for the last lap - into the finishing straight & toe to toe with the prancing horse and, in the last millisecond, forcing the nose ahead. VICTORY !! Well, in these dreadful times surely we are allowed to dream.
First thing to note is that the greatly increased volume yesterday allowed the weak holders to exit and thereby held back the rise.
Secondly, i referred again to the RNS of June 2019:
"ApbHc could potentially be used as a tool for the rapid development and/or isolation of human antibodies against unknown human-specific pathogens (biedefense applications)"
Quite apart from its prophetic nature i think that the most important word in light of the current situtation is "rapid"
I had thought that any tentative linking of HEMO with Covid-19 was pie in the sky but then came across the 24.06.19 RNS re 'Development of ApbHC - A novel type of Humanized Mice' and the following extract:
"ApbHC could potentially be used as a tool for the rapid development and/or isolation of human antibodies against unkown human-specific pathogens (biodefense applications)"
I have no idea whether the company has current ongoing work on this but it is interesting that they have this in house technology.
Other than that it is worth noting that HEMO is not a one-trick pony. There is clearly a degree of excitement within the company regarding their CAR-T (Stem cell) programme for the treatment of Acute Myloid Leukenia. This could be a company maker although it is likely that a partnership with a major would be required. Having said that, if it progresses as hoped, there will be no shortage of Big Pharma in the queue
The three technologies underpinning the company are: CDX Antibodies / Humanised (Chimeric) Mice / Hu-PHEC Stem Cell therapy.
I also note an alliance with Nasdaq quoted Orgenisis. Their technologies very much overlap. Orgenesis is cash rich following the disposal of its manufacturing division & it would not surprise if they had HEMO in their line of sight.
Very much a company that is valued by the market at significantly less than the sum of its parts. My opinion only of course.
There is a growing realisation that global financial structures are under huge strain. BTC has gone through $7K several times and fallen back. For what it is worth my feeling is that its time has now come as fiat currencies lose credibilty. Very soon it will break $7k again & not look back.
redwineday: 64p is the downside precisely because 64p is the current price - ie: Buy @ 64p - goes bust = 64p downside. The upside, as i said, depends upon implementation of the business plan. Whether you are a believer, disbeliever or plain romantic that is simply the position as we stand today.
OK - bargain. The rights at 30p are due for settlement on Fri 17th but that is already priced in. So nothing will necessarily happen to your shares. You bought in ex rights & nothing wrong with that. The trajectory of the shares from hereon will be purely down to the execution of the company strategy. If they get it right the shares go up [a lot!] - if they get it wrong then ?? So, as we stand now, the downside is 64p - the upside [over time] - £3 - £4 - £5 - who knows, but all contingent upon successful implementation.
The excitement around exosomes is their potential for intracellular delivery of therapies. A useful reference here is Nasdaq listed Orgenesis. Refer to the announcements of 31 March & 8 April & 13 April. The bit in the 31March announcement about Bioxomes [synthetic exosomes] that caught my attention was the potential for "delivery of intracellular antiviral payloads". The 8 April announcement details an agreement to source exosomes & the 13 April covers the acquisition of a virus specific company. This company does not make dramatic announcements [like RENE] so you have to join the dots. Again, like RENE, it is cash rich having recently pulled in $127m from the sale of its manufacturing operations although this will deplete by $19m re the acquisition. Even so this will be in excess of its current market cap. I am hedging my bets by holding both Orgenisis & RENE. I am not a scientist & so this is just a signpost & my thoughts only.
So, all of the indications are that this GLOBAL crisis is not going away anytime soon. Leave aside the antibody test which is fraught with difficulties & concentrate on basic testing. It is now clear that there is going to be massive international demand, both for healthcare based use & in population use. GDR should be able to meet both of these constituencies with accurate & rapid testing at scale. GDR is no "johnny come lately" - although small it has an international reputation. This is a company maker for GDR. Cometh the hour - cometh the company. And, consider this, the current market cap is most probably less than the value to be realised from the infant antibiotic induced hearing loss test. So, you could make the arguement that any Covid-19 success is in the price for very little. My humble opinion only.
For anybody shorting i would remind them that the shares are Ord 50p. So, if they wanted to raise at less than 50p they would have to undergo a share reconstruction. This would destroy any last vestige of credibility that this BOD have. When the fundung was in the air the shares pushed up to around 180p but the announcement with no price attached then cratered them. I would now expect, if markets look to be regaining some of their poise, a rights or placing at not less than 60p & the positive market reaction then pushing the sp to 70p or beyond. Purely my opinion.