So what is 25% of Zama worth? My gut feeling is $500m. So, potentially net debt comes down to around $1500m in the near term. There is a clear ratchet effect with PMO - as debt reduces market cap for the ord shares increases. We could be getting close to an inflexion point where the market fundamentally reappraises PMO.
The share price of Safestore has risen some 1200% from a low of 50p in Nov 2008 to now. It has all the hallmarks of an exceptional business one might say. BUT: Buy today's Daily Telegraph & isolate the MONEY section & turn to Page 4 & read the account of their business practices applicable to long-term users of their service - practices that could be said to amount to exploitation of the elderly & vulnerable. Just makes you wonder whether other dirty little business practices are there waiting to be unearthed. Certainly, on this evidence, i would not consider this company as a safe store for my own investment cash.
So, the funding toe, as expected, is now testing the water. Well, Xeros is capitalised at £23m at yesterday's close & wants to raise £10m. I think that they will be lucky if they can raise at 7p - more likely at 5 or 6p.
I find this RNS very comforting. The feldspar & quartz add-ons support mine economics and therefore the investment case. Management are slowly but surely completing the Portuguese jigsaw. Then there are the Oman & Mozambique jigsaws although Portugal is clearly No 1 for investment & deliverability. Management should be supported. The best policy for those who have lost faith is to sell & move on.
This announcement just adds to the positive story here. The ducks are lining up. We just now await the Araguia financing package but the fundamentals are hugely supportive. The company name gets shortened to Horizonte Min. I prefer to think of its future as Horizonte Max.
Aha, have just read today's FT offering. I can agree with most of the content. But it fails to highlight that Intu's malls & properties are at the higher end of the quality spectrum & that refreshing and reimagining the estate has already commenced & that footfall has actually been increasing [ie outperforming the high street in general}. And in fact the term "high street" is misleading for Intu. In addition the long term strugglers, the "walking wounded" , have now departed or done their CVA's, leaving the stronger retailers better able to weather the storm. Time will, of course, tell.
The very bearish FT article that zcc refers to is, i presume, the piece of unadulterated "knocking copy" penned by Neil Collins. As for the refinancing required in 12 months this is sheer supposition. No debt instruments fall due for repayment or renegotiation until first half of Calendar 2019. These i think total some £950m although only some one-half of this relates to bonds with the balance being the revolving credit facility. Any refinancing before this would be due only if a further catastrophic fall in property values occurred. A further 15% from 30 June 2019 values would be manageable & would represent a 33% peak to trough movement. Plus the market seems to totally discount the planned sale of the Spanish interests. Remember that the NAV per share on the lower of the two methodologies at end June was £2.10 leaving today's close at close to an 85% discount. Now i realise that any further falls in values have a disproportionate %age fall in NAV as the debt remains constant. Even so this is an Armageddon pricing. And let us not forget that John Whittaker [Peel Holdings] sits there with 29.99%. He nearly tilted for the company around last October and the market expected a bid of north of £2.00. So, in my opinion "Nil desperandum". Quite possibly if you bought now & went to sleep for a couple of weeks then you may be pleasantly surprised on waking up.
The action against Indivior is an action against the company, both as to when it was a subsidiary of RB & as an independent entity from 2014. Indivior are resolute in their position that the vast majority of any failures took place under the first incarnation. To the extent that the claims are effectively "joint & several" the question is whether RB's "without fault" settlement substantially clears an overall negotiated liability. Directors prepared to put their own money on the table are signalling their confidence in a positive outcome & a profitable future for Indivior.
All of this about Align is true but i have taken the time to study a fair number of their reports. They generally seem to be well researched & bring our the counter arguments in stocks that are in the firing line & consumed by negativity. And at least this is all above board. The stories propounded & planted by the shorts are purely & simply designed to create fear & uncertainty in order to profit. And Align are right, in the sense that they frequently identify the point of maximum overreaction in a share price, more often than they are wrong.