Complicated stock but undervalued4 Dec 2013 01:53
I kind of forgot about this stock but, having taken a look at it now, the SP is low IMO
Pros
- the company's revenue is ABOVE its MCAP.
- it has a P/E ratio less than 4, despite the sector it's in
- the share price has risen from 3p to 10p YTD yet not at all since April really, after a massive re-rate from the astonishingly good Final Results for 2012
- profit margins have increased a lot and is increasing!
- to have such a low P/E ratio despite all these good points would suggest lots of debt and yet this company has paid their debt off and the cash pile is increasing
Cons
- regulation of the industry threatens Zamano, as you can see if you scroll down through the interim results!
- the news flow seems rather poor and I feel that's the reason this company is undervalued
- a worsening situation in Ireland and USA
Conclusion
The worsening situation in Ireland and the USA has been largely counteracted by an incredibly strong performance in the UK. Realising how dependent the company is on the UK and how it'd be near impossible to maintain such fast growth here in Britain the company is now geographically diversifying into 6 new territories by the end of the year - Australia and countries in Eastern Europe.
In the worst case scenario where Zamano business ceases to exist in Ireland and USA and ignoring the diversification of the company (and therefore it's risks), we're left just with the UK.
Based on the H1 results and converting it into sterling, UK revenue for 2013 ought to be a shade over £10m ( = the current MCAP) with UK gross profits around £2.6m. Therefore making Zamano look undervalued based on its UK operation alone.
So once you factor in the improved profit margins, the new territories were entering, no debt, no threat of share dilutions etc it really is quite remarkable the MCAP is this low!
The interims showed us what a risky industry Zamano operate in. Yet, at this MCAP, I think there is very little risk for those investing into the company now. A re-rate is due and the final results RNS will be the catalyst based on the fundamentals alone, and especially if you believe - like I do - that the company is good hands with a board who realise the risks involved and have therefore taken steps to manage them.
In March 2014, when the 2013 final results are announced, I'm expecting the SP to rise to 15p at the very least.