Irish situation7 Dec 2013 01:23
Just through 4 pages of comments and saw someone said that the market overreacted to the Irish situation. So I thought I'd counter that by saying that by saying that:
the markets reaction isn't entirely linked with the comparative size of RSA's operation in Ireland nor the expected £70m hit RSA now expect.
I reckon the main reason for the fall is a lack of trust.
The insurance industry has seen its fair share of dodgy insurance operations. The most memorable of them was not even that long ago with the Independent Insurance company whereby the entire company went bust, the value of independent shares went to zero, and plenty of people lost a hell of a lot of money. I personally have met a guy who worked there who lost his job, his pension, and around £500,000's worth which he had in independent shares.
What caused Independent to go bust? False financial and claims reporting. Amongst many things Independent's top brass did was have claims reserves that were far too low (so they could charge cheap premiums to undercut the competition), and they made out there was reinsurance in place (which acts as a safety net) when there wasn't.
As a result of this fraud the company didn't go bust in 1998 like it should. Instead it won awards and it's CEO got some special honour too. The company stayed alive through financial and claims trickery for another three years before finally going to the wall in 2001.
Those acts were criminal and the top 3 chaps involved all went to prison. As I said a lot of people got burnt and people don't forget. Markets don't forget.
So RSA's Irish situation is much more than financial. It was serious, and should be treated as such. And, bearing in mind the chap I mentioned earlier, it annoys me to hear that commenters here think the market overreacted. Until it can be proved the false reporting from Ireland was a one-off thing and something that won't happen again, RSA's SP won't perform as it should based on what are some good fundamentals because the market won't trust RSA. It's as simple as that.