Member Info for Libero

Out of interest what were your 3 stocks for 2013, jolly?

Ahh interesting. Thanks for the reply, alb1on. Oh and perhaps add Gallaghers to your list of prospective buyers as they acquire a lot of businesses. Mostly brokers of course - Health Lambert and Giles being the main ones - but also some insurers and it's part of their strategy to buy insurers too. They also have a bit of a secret weapon in terms of funding these acquisitions too. So it's worth keeping an eye on them...

I've had no funds for a while now and so, despite wanting to buy in here, it looks like Redt is running off without me! Whereas other stocks I really like the look of have had the courtesy to wait for me or even go a lot lower (in MOS' case) REDT isn't waiting for anyone haha!

I've read all 4 of your posts here with a lot of interest. You really seem to know your stuff - about typically buffers, how they're built up in the good years for the bad, and how reserves for some classes can be used to fill holes elsewhere. All stuff I didn't fully appreciate/ realise even though I'd love to follow my dad into underwriting myself! Out of sheer interest, where did you work? do you see any parallels between RSA and the Independent Insurance Company? If RSA have been consistently underreseving for 4 years straight as you suggest, how come auditors didn't even spot this?

Bambos, don't get too excited by the news. I got the impression the UK launch would be on a trial basis, not the sort of thing to go crazy about. The real news is that this company is set for ridiculous growth over the coming two years. The 2014 HY report will be the first bit of news I'm most excited about for that reason. (not the 2013 FY report because, as discussed previously, revenue has been really affected by the now resolved Indonesian situation this year. Not like 20% growth isn't something to be excited about - its just not as amazing as 50% growth like it should have been! Thus making 2014 all the more exciting because the Indonesian revenue (even at a flat rate) will make the company look like its growing all the faster.)

1) my dad knows the chairman. he's an elderly old guy who is a figurehead more than anything from what I understand, and my dad doesn't really talk to him about that. I'm sure they're both more interested in legal developments etc (my dad is a lawyer himself by background ) 2) even if I did know something I'm sure it'd be against the law to tell all I'm sure. What I do feel confident in saying is that my dad knows JIL make huge amounts of money and have huge margins on the business they do. So he feels like JIL would be a good investment, especially considering the huge dividend. And, at these prices, it is all the more tempting. If I had some money right now I'm buy in!

that RNS was total non-news, although I have to admit it was nice to hear something :)

UBC Media Group Plc ("UBC" or "the Company") Update re: Proposed Acquisition Further to the announcement of 25 November 2013 regarding the proposed acquisition of 7Digital Group, Inc ("7Digital") by UBC, the Company provides the following update. UBC and 7Digital have agreed to continue to work in good faith to agree Heads of Terms outlining the detailed material terms of a potential acquisition of 7Digital by UBC and will update the market as and when agreement has been reached.

If there is I hope it comes after Wednesday (cos of the Fed Meeting uncertainty which takes place Wednesday)

Thank goodness you're alive and well - was starting to worry bout you! Thought you might have gone on a mad bender on the profit you made from TSTL or something, and ended up in hospital haha! Hope you had a jolly nice time in France, and it's good to have you back. Hmm maybe I'm discounting too much liability wise (thus inflating the EV) by literally including it all - total current and total non-current liabilities.. Either way I like the look of Redt and, having looked at the business itself a bit, I was pleasantly surprised they're linked to the industry I work in - insurance! For instance I see that Redt are involved in Kidnap & Ransom insurance (K&R) from the February RNS, and I had an interview to be a K&R insurance broker just around that time too!

Doubt it. But why the 16th? Is that day significant? Lol

Absolutely superb post and, if you look at my previous posts on here, I totally share your concerns. I just didn't explain myself as well as you - partially because I clearly don't know anywhere near as much as you seeing as I'm an incredibly junior ins broker who only started this year. I just knew that inadequate claims reserves and inadequate reinsurance were two key ingredients in the Independent's demise and saw comparisons here. Unfortunately I don't have an answer for you but am pleased by your presence on the board :)

Jolly, when calculating the EBIT for the FY, do you factor in some extra growth on top of your HY EBIT x 2 calculation? Because I'm accounting for the cash now but, even so, my EV/E value is 9.08 if we were to presume 2.5m net cash. Sorry to ask but I want to get this right. PS - what do you think of JIL?

I hope your right purely due to the fact it will hit equities so hard if the start tapering. Although, the better solution would be for the market not too think QE is the be all and end all because it's not. In all honesty I'm surprised they're still bothering with QE in America. The economy is strong enough over there not to need it and has been for a couple of years now at least. So I honestly think they might start to end it. We'll have to wait and see. In the scenario that they do taper: AIM shares will take a hit. Especially for stocks that derive a lot of revenue from the US I reckon. But come April the government are going to get rid of stamp duty on AIM shares and I'm confident that will give us a boost to undo any damage done by this meeting. In the scenario where things continue exactly as they are then buy into shares now before the meeting cos it'd mean this is a great buying opportunity. We'll just have to wait and see

Just had a quick look at BBOX and I am trying to research further but I can't. Where is the information? Without the information there for me to research it properly I'm not interested y'see

This is going straight in the watch list until I do some further research later, but it looks undervalued to me :)

I know I was very interested to see that too. The market does seem very weak right now with companies being badly punished on poor news, and share prices struggling to rise/falling in general. The FTSE has had its worst week on week run since 2008 and is now the lowest it’s been since 10th October. How much of that is because the first half of December is historically bad I don’t know. I think it’s more likely to do with market speculation that the US will start tapering monetary stimulus / possibly people selling to free up cash for Christmas. What do you think?

The London insurance market is incredibly durable and strong. However the conditions in which we operate have worsened drammatically in recent years. Before the recession insurers could be profitable even when their combined loss ratios were above 100% due to high investment returns. But now, with very low interest rates, insurers have been forced to focus on making the underwriting profitable and keep their combined loss ratios below 100% at all costs. Yet - at the same time - there's huge downward pressure on rates and so this has proven to be very difficult. On top of all of that reinsurance rates are historically low which has meant there are too many market participants all fighting for market share etc which has meant rates cannot increase. Historically, when this has happened, there'll eventually be a huge catastrophe loss that hit some insurers so hard they're forced to withdraw from the market and rates harden. However, with reinsurance rates so low, that hasn't happened, the very high level of competition has remained and rates have stayed low and the forces against insurer's making good profits have remained. So, when I see QBE and RSA having trouble, I sincerely hope they'll raise rates because they're the sort of respected leading brands who could raise rates without losing much market share and then others would follow. Although, the fear of losing market share, could prevent them from doing so. We'll haveto wait and see...

This is clearly oversold and should be in the 90-95p area right now / in the short term. In the long term I can see RSA doing very well because, at the end of the day, RSA is a well respected insurer. As you can see from the article below commercial brokers are fans of RSA and I know that London Market insurance brokers like mine are also a big fan of RSA. http://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/1406252.article As selfish as it sounds, as someone who works in the London Market, I'm really hoping that premium rates will harden. RSA and QBE have had bad news this week and they're two of the largest insurers in the London Market or the world even. So they're exactly the type of insurers who could lead the industry into a hard market, and that would benefit everyone. Fingers crossed

I knew that once RSA dropped below the psychologically important 100p it would drop considerably further. Once this settles it'll be well worth buying into I'd say because it looks a little oversold already.