Member Info for LEFKOSIA

Well done Harry nice start. What a fool to suggest a different horse to you. Luckily I still follow you as well.

Good afternoon first foray into Goodwood produced nothing following de Souza but will persist again today. For anyone interested and I believe there may be one other blogger following him or who follow successful jockeys ,some interesting statistics from his races for the month ended 24 July. • 34 winners out of 125 rides.27.2% • (All rides where sp odds were 20/1 or more produced nothing not even place money 13 in all 100% or 10.4% in total), • (all odds on won 3 in all 100%), • 28 wins were at odds between evens and 7/1 22.4% of total rides, • one win at 12/1 and one at 16/1. One win at 11/1 since 24 July. • A level stake of £10 win only no ew produced a net profit of £437 on all rides. • Doing doubles on all his horses at each meeting resulted in net 98 points profit. If one cuts out all the 20/1’s and above and anything over 7/1 this would increase the net profit substantially. Haven’t had time to work it out. May have to reconsider my attitude to multiples or at least doing doubles which is seldom. • No trebles but he did have one at Leicester between 25 July and now 4/1. 5.5/1 and 11/4. 120.87 points profit. Have not calculated how many losing trebles to offset. He usually got one winner at each meeting but some meetings drew a blank, Newbury, York (twice once after 24 July), Ayr, Newmarket, Doncaster,Nottingham, Pontefract, Southall and Goodwood yesterday. Possible conclusions for the future; Ignore where odds are 20/1 or over or at least restrict to £1 win just in case, not worth doing ew as too many losing bets?; This would increase the net profit to £554 on a level stake. Back all odds on favs; Restrict level wins to SP ‘S of evens to 7/1? This would have reduced the level stake net profit by £280 for the 2 big wins but increased it by £ 250 for all the losers resulting in a net profit of £524; Do doubles on horses at same meeting where odds are between odds on to 7/1. All based on past performance since 24 July and as usual past performance no guarantee for future performance but there does seem to be a pattern. using the above filters 2 horses qualify 16.20 High Sprung 11/2 and 17.30 Rythimical 6/1 proviso re Dikta Del Mar 15.10 20/1 ‘One at bigger price who has made trip across water to be here is Dikta Del Mar may run better than odds imply’ Goodwood is hard but how about CONNECTICUT 2pm MUTHMIR in addition to Harry’s King George and OSAILA 16.55 win or ew dependent on odds. gla

ps word of warning de souza does have his bleak phases as everyone does. Since 24 June there have been 2 of 7 to 8 consecutive losing races and one of 15 but he does come good in the end when PUTIN at 11/1 came in and using my non level staking plan recovered the previous losing stakes. the additional insurance stakes to recover any losing bets today up to the penultimate race has only cost an additional £12.03 so I don't have to be tied up watching the races this afternoon.

correction since 24 June

I like your choices Acker good luck.There are quite a few horses with the name Harry in them that I have been monitoring for fun. Haven't placed any bets yet. Harry thank you so much for sending me the stats on Sylvester de Souza, he is having a blinder of a season. Picked up his 3 winners at leicester yesterday at £10 a pop singles 11/4 5/1 AND 4/1 very nice. It's at times like this I rue not doing multiples but long term I don't think they pay. Doing all his rides at goodwood today at £10 a pop except the 2 33/1's only £1ew the pair. All the rest win only. My strategy does not involve ew's except of course the 33/1's. Regarding those none of his rides at odds of 20/1 or over have won or been placed for a payout since 24 July where my records go back to hence the £1 stake just in case. gla

Good morning. Thank you Royjohn and Harry for your input which has to be respected. I too have always believed in the level stake method since my experience of following Gordon Richards many moons ago. However any run of betting will never produce 100% winners and there will always be a bad patch. It happens in other walks of life eg football winning matches. I believe it was Arsenal was the last premier team that went a whole season and some , was it 45 matches, without losing, but it does not happen very often. I have learned that stop losses are essential in trading the stock market and if applied here will help reduce the losses that will most definitely occur from time to time. I will continue to paper trade the strategy, well £1 a point, to see how it goes and back test when applied to Harry's main selections and separately to include all of the horses mentioned in his posts at the weekend as work has to take priority for the rest of the week GLA.

Royjohn regarding the other betting strategy I tweeked the level stake and introduced a stop loss policy. The change has dramatically increased the profit to £886.80 after 34 wins compared to £437.82 level stake only and £340 £10 a win only.It does mean the Putin win would only have been £10 compared to £110 for level stake only but the plus is that the losers are almost eliminated entirely and the maximum bank to fund it only increased to £218.64. As always it is minimising losses that makes a successful trader so too with horse betting. I have tested it on two other selection processes and the results are similar. I will now test it on Harry's tips.

here is the link for the favorites phenomenon. I want to make it clear I am not recommending it, have not purchased it and do not know the details of the system. Whatever I came across from betting rant must have been a bastardised version not containing all the details. I have checked out reviews on the net and they seem to like the system. Has anyone heard of Mat Watson (Harry?) or used it? I believe it is crucial to have some sort of stop loss in place and also to consider having filters so that not all races are considered eg no odds on fav, whether the going has changed ( Harry has said that results could be very different if there has been a lot of rain) Harry also said he avoids first timers, there could also be courses to avoid, jockeys and trainers as well to consider, without knowing how the system works. http://www.fpsystem.co.uk/index.php I suppose the concept of SAW stop at winner could be used in conjunction with Harry's excellent tips to filter out or reduce the losers? Any views?

I may have jumped the gun in dissing the favorite strategy. I cannot locate it on my computer and may have not had all the details and was lucky not to have hit the heavy losses. In view of this other independent assessment I may give it another go paper trading it. Having stop losses makes sense. I should have known that from trading shares. It's the damn losses that one has to minimise or cut out to stay ahead. see below 'Favourites Phenomenon 10 / 10 Favourites Phenomenon (FP) is a 'stop at a winner' system. That is, you bet a series of horses until one of them wins, and then you stop for the day. Thus, your target each day is to make a single point profit. The downside with this type of system is that it has invariably offered very heavy losses on the rare losing days. FP accounts for that by placing 'stop losses' in the cycles, and using a couple of other sensible steps in the process. Since 2006, FP has shown a profit of a remarkable 761 points (to end March 2009). That's £76,100 to £100 stakes over three and a quarter years, or £23,415.38 a year, which is higher than the average annual UK salary. Check this one out here' if the link does not work when posted this can be found on the geegeez website for anyone interested. Robjohn and Harry any views?

Royjohn. Level stakes of £10 a punt produces a better return £467.82 compared to £340 for the month and £447.82 compared to £350 up to the last win at Putin yesterday. Three losers since then. Also the longest losing run of 15 would have required a fund of £160 compared to £113. The £10 a win staking policy guarantees a win of £10 and no losses once a winner occurs, whereas level stakes does not. In practice placing the bets the previous evening to win £10 a race usually results in lesser staking as one gets better prices and even if the winning sp is better Betfair and I understand other bookies pay sp so one does win more than £10 per winning bet on occasions. One still has to adjust the stakes and place further bets the next day to recoup losses when losers occur. It can have an adverse effect on stakes wagered if the odds drift the next day rather than shorten eg one horse was backed the previous evening at 22/1 but the SP was 28/1. It lost but the stake wagered would have been less if 28/1 had been used. Conversely I got Putin at 14/1 the previous evening.Still only won £10 but with a lesser stake. If I had backed at 10/1 the previous evening but sp was 11/1 I would have won £11.

Would anyone be interested in a strategy to produce consistent winners, amongst losers as well, to keep ahead of the bookie? It produced 34 winners in one month from 125 selections 27.2% with varying stakes. Biggest bet £51.46 longest losing run 15 followed by 2 lots of 7 to 8 running losers and a few good priced winners 11/1 today and previously a 16/1 and 12/1, a couple of 6 and 7/1's but mainly 4/5/1 and below. To produce a profit of £10 a win = £340. the largest fund required to take account of the longest losing run of 15 was £113 just outside the month. Prior to that the max fund required for the 7 or 8 consecutive losers was £69. It does entail recouping previous losses but not doubling up, which can bankrupt one. If anyone is interested I will post the strategy and the full results. Please note based on 1 months results between 25 June and 24 July 2015 extended to yesterday 27 th July 35 winners and the 11/1 Putin at Southwell and the 15 longest losing run, which was beginning to give me kittens, but it came good with an 11/1. On further analysis of results one could cut out a number of selections where the odds were 20/1 or more and any odds on selections. If betting for a living the target would be £100 per winner giving £3,400 for the month and a betting fund of at least £1,130 but realistically £2/3k.Biggest single bet would have been £514.16 if one had bet on the odds on winner. If missed then 33 winners and single largest bet would have been £25.42 for £10 a winner or £254.20 for £100 a winner.

emblaze1 I'm afraid there is no such thing as a dead cert. Something I have learned to my cost. See my earlier blog re Bula unbeaten in 12 or 13 races and sods law when I chose to back it at 1/5 it got beat. Take last week's dead cert White Bullet 1/8 got beat. Look at that 1st favourite stop at 1 point profit per meeting strategy. Recent results show that it is seriously flawed. Robjohn said it would end in tears and he has been proved right.I was just ‘lucky’ that when I used it I happened to win. What does that also reveal? Favs are the form horses, or what the market perceives as the ‘dead cert’, but invariably they lose to the extent that sometimes none can win throughout a 6,7 or 8 race meeting. How many odds on favs ‘certs’ get beaten? Betting Rant has a strategy of betting against odds on favs which they claim works . Just like trading it is impossible to have 100% winners. The best tips are inside info the kind Harry comes up with on a consistent basis. I believe Robjohn said if you stick to Harry’s selections and ignore the also mentioned one would be in profit. The trick to stay ahead is to stick to level stakes and as Royjohn says stay away from multiples as they favour the bookie long term, unless one has inside info to give one an edge. I tend to stick to the occasional double.

Good morning everyone. My one bet today was going to be CHADIC and Harry's tipped it. See below some info I picked up on Jonjo O' Neill rather on the lines of Harry's comment on Cathy Gannon last week and that she was good at Bath. ‘Tomorrow night Cathy Gannon has only ride in the last at Lingfield KINGSSTONE BASSAFRAS I can't believe she has gone there for nothing she would rather be home with her baby who she dots on’ I think Harry may have been on the sauce when he posted it as it was the first race and the horse was Jakaby Jade which obliged at 10/1. Nothing beats Harry’s inside info. Jonjo O’Neill is profitable to follow at Worcester, especially in handicap contests and so it proved to be the case. All four of his runners were winners yesterday at SP’s of 6/1, 11/2, 9/2 and 7/2 for a 4-timer at 1125/1 for anyone Too late now but good for future reference. Jonjo was Gordon Richards’ (NH trainer not the jockey) lead jockey way back when. Richards was having a blinder of a season so I started backing all his horses on the basis of recouping any losses on the basis he will have another winner eventually. Bad mistake never to be repeated. It got very hairy as I was up to over £100 to bet on the next horse which for me was a lot of money in the 1970’s. Luckily the horse won but can’t remember its name Canadius or Canadian. Never tried that strategy again.

Harry I'm also going to look at doing place only bets on the tote. Can that be done? So often the place winnings are depleted by having to place the win bet too for the ew when one only believes the horse is capable of a place. I have only very occasionally used the tote. usually take a price when making a bet. Its good that bookies pay out the sp if greater than price taken these days.

Good morning Harry. Thanks for the statistics on sylvester de sousa. I'm presently working on a strategy involving best trainers/ jockeys/ and odds of winners. Will be posting suggestions once I have back tested it. Missed your new source of three winners as you said to watch. I see I may be back in Fitbug if my repurchase order at 3.91 got triggered. Zak technical analysis is predicting 9/10 short term which will please acker and the 2 other amigos!!!!! Busy with work so won't be following the gee gees today or the weekend.

other fancies worc 15.50 Theatre Flame 20.50 Lim Mount Marcus Baker ew NOT fun Names

Royjohn I believe Betting Rant back tested laying odds on favs with certain other conditions re prices of 2nd and third favs and number of runners and confirmed it is a winner. Having to pay out at more than odds on could severely damage one, like the fav that won at 4/1 yesterday. One's fund would have to be large enough to suffer a losing run of winning odds on favs. I believe the longest run was 8 or 9. Is it worth carrying on your test but only selecting odds on favs to lay and adjust the results so far?

1 fun name today Paddy Mulligan 14.40 Worc: Former Chelsea defender from the 1970'S. Don't hold your breath he's the rank outsider 66/1!!!! ew of course Thanks Royjohn. I'll stick to the occasional double. You have confirmed my feeling that multiples are losers in the long run but there will be the very occasional crock of gold winner. If I had done a place yankee on my 4 fun names yesterday it would have paid off. the one winning double would have produced 22.5 points offset by the 10 WIN losing other bets.I am content with the 7.5 points from the 2 win singles and the 4 place singles savers. I had a good day on Harry as well as took his advice re the girl Jockey at Bath. Also had a punt on Sylvester, cats name Sylvester, da Sousa's mounts which also paid off so all in all a good day.

Fun horse names proved a winner again for me, 2 winners 4/1 and 7/2, a second and third 3/1 and 5/1. It never ceases to amaze me that I get better results than studying form.

royjohn from a practical point of view how would you place the losing doubles as you would not know who the final favs would be in advance and if there were 2 or 3 favs at the off?