Member Info for LEFKOSIA

btw Harry what now on Golden Horn and the ARC? I have him at 7/2 win and Gatsby ew at 20/1. Have not backed the fav filly NERVE yet who I understand is unbeaten and looking for an unprecedented 3rd Arc, rather like Red Rum winning his 3rd National. Also are you able to explain how the horse African Queen who had been beaten many times beat not only Golden Horn but all the other proven class horses?

btw thank you also KNIGELK. my interest in longer priced winners was partly prompted by you and cemented by SDS's apparently fluke beating of Golden Horn where I was lucky to have got him at 100/1. As you know I wasn't going to back SDS at York at all because of his appalling record at the course until Harry tipped a couple of his rides. Also he had not had a winner at odds of 20/1 or over since 24 July similar to WTD. However, there may be some mileage in backing horses at those odds of 10/1 or over using the recovery of losing bets strategy. Will keep you posted after I have researched it more.

Good morning Harry et al. I have not had the time to fully analyse Paul Hanagan but judging by his last 14 rides you may have made a wise choice. If you started yesterday and based only on sp’s I calculate that to a £10 basic win stake on every ride with top ups for losers you should have made at least £105 with £38.46 losses to carry forward to recover today or tomorrow. If you placed the basic £10 bets the night before at better odds then the profits would have been more and the losses to carry forward less. Am I far off the reality? Word of caution. Based on the last 14 days he does not seem to bag any really good priced winners the best one being 8/1 yesterday. This strategy works best with successful jockeys who also bag winners at big prices hence SDS. I am monitoring Detorri and may add him to the list and drop WTD as his strategy is based on ignoring all his long priced rides. As regards to my day yesterday it was mixed. Bad day at the races for Cathy and SDS but tremendous day following Fahey. Fun bets no good. With regard to Fahey I had been analysing his record as you place a lot of faith in him. He is certainly successful. 42 winners in the last month but then again he does have an awful lot of runners. Based on my £10 a win, not stake, strategy with recovery of losses that may have produced a win for the month of £420 up to the 28 August if no stop losses kicked in. However he has far too many runners and losers to monitor that strategy. I was looking at other ways to use his current statistics when you made your blog, Basically, only backing his runners at £10 win no ew’s where the odds are 10/1 or over. NO EW’S. Without having time to prepare my spreadsheet I took the bull by the horns and backed all his runners at 10/1 and over yesterday with recovery of losses built into the stakes and it paid off. A profit of £260 with no losses to carry forward to recover. It may have been more if I had backed the night before. Missed his 8/1 and 15/8 winners but one cannot bag ‘em all because he has too many runners UNLESS one has an unlimited bet bank. With regard to Cathy and SDS the losses are mounting and my stop loss may kick in. I will continue my updates on sds today to show how the strategy pans out. Again I have only you to thank for my £260 win on Fahey as you pointed me in the right direction and may also have done so with Paul Hanagan, we will see. I have taken a rain check on backing WTD for now but still continue to monitor him. I may also do the same with Cathy after this last run has finished and all losses recovered. I fear I do not have enough raw data on her as she appears to have taken a holiday last month and her winners were flattered by one 20/1 winner. GLA

Nothing beats Harry's inside info another 16/1 winner well done harry nice end to the afternoon's racing

long odds fun name 17.10 BEV INGLEBY ERIN 80/1 EW.

sds 4losers plus 1 place loser plus top up £4.38 £49.38 to recover.got 8/1 last night on cape lion so 15 ahead on present sp if it wins therefore only £34.38 to recover. present odds 13/2 therefore £5.29 top up bet.

SDS 3 win losers £30 plus £5 tote place loser therefore £35 to recover on Mister rockand roll presently 8/1 therefore yop up bet to win £4.38 as got 8/1 on £10 win last night.

SDS now has 2 losers so £20 lost. I got 12/1 last night on Shawcantango so need to top up £1.67 at 12/1 odds to win £140. £10 at 12/1 to win £120 plus £1.67 at 12/1 to recover the £20 lost. However it is presently 20/1 so no need to top up but will do a tote place only bet at those odds. Betting the previous night pays off if the odds shorten but on this occasion it has backfired as it should be a no bet in the strategy and a separate ew bet outside the system. In case it only gets placed I will have a £5 tote place only bet. It that loses as well I will factor the £5 lost into the next bet within the strategy.

its now £12.38 thats £238 on a £1k 23.8% overnight.

i can cash in nortgate lad at £11.88 no risk thats £111.80 on a £1k bet. I won't but at £1k i would.

had £10 win on northgate lad at 14/1 last night. AS his odds are 10/1 no need for a top up.

emblaze1 I only use the free geegees and sky's record of past rides for jockeys, trainers horses etc which unfortunately only has past months results. Don't use tipping services because they are crap, except our dear Harry. Anyone can tip form horses at short odds its the much longer odds tips, the ones one thinks have no chance that count and Harry wins hands down on that front simply because he has genuine inside info. Yes he has losers we all do but if one tries to recover the losing bet stakes with a staking policy then one can permanently stay ahead of the bookies. Level staking plans do not work even for the most successful jockeys and even if they do the profits are paltry.see below for sds. S De Sousa Vital stats Period Runs 1st 2nd 3rd Win% £ level stake Last 7 Days (Combined) 30 5 5 5 16.67 -0.5 Season (Combined) 482 98 61 52 20.33 88.07 I am up hundreds of pounds up on sds using basic £10 bets with top ups since I started my staking policy on him. Will post results later as have to get back to racing as his 1st ride fav just came last and need to do a top up for next race to recover the £10 lost. This is the start of a new run as his previous ride Escrick won at 4/1 so the staking policy reverts back to a £10 win bet on the next race unless the odds are 20/1 or over. I got Exentricity at 9/4 yesterday. Just before the off the cash in £10 bet was worth £12.67. That's a massive risk free profit of £267 on a £1k bet overnight. Still monitoring that strategy.

profitseeker. You have not understood my staking system, which also has a stop loss built in to prevent huge unmanageable losses being built up.IT DOES NOT INVOLVE DOUBLING UP. That is a recipe for disaster very quickly and should NEVER be done. Starting with a pound as the first bet SDS's longest losing streak is 18 races since the 24 June and would have meant accumulated losses of £16,383 and a bet of £16,384 to be made on the 19th race meaning one would have needed a bank of £32,766 to place the 19th bet, if a bookie took the bet. If that had lost then the next bet would have been £32,768 meaning a bank of £65,534. After that the stakes get really silly meaning one would have needed a bank of over a quarter of a million to place the next bet. Even with my staking policy of £10 win stake each and every bet with top ups to recover losses would have meant having a bank of £3,137 and a stake of £705 to win a paltry £35 on the 19th bet but recovery of all past losses. This clearly is unmanageable for me hence a stop loss policy which includes no bet to be included in the recovery process where odds are less than 2/1. Without a stop loss that meant having a bank of £997 and a bet of £223 which for me is manageable but a little scary. With a stop loss introduced it meant a bank of £232 and it took 5 more winners to fully recoup the losses before hitting the accumulation of profits again. Sounds complicated but it isn't as long as one does not bottle out. I have a similar staking plan for Cathy to win £100 per each of her winning rides but that can get scary too without a stop loss built in. I bottled out recently and reduced the win to £50 from 100 for the next bet and she only went and won that ride. GLA

Have you ever wondered why the bookies promote quadpot and placepot etc but one cannot do other place multiples such as doubles trebles and 4 horse accumulators or yankees etc? I finally clarified with Betfair today what you can and can't do as regards place betting. Multiples are only allowed on Sportsbook where you must do the win as well. Big disadvantage because the win side takes all the profit away on adds of 4 to 5/1 and leaves bugger all untill one gets to 10/1 at 5th place odds where one gets 1 point profit. On the exchange and the tote one can do single place bets but not multiples unless one gets suckered into the special pots that relate to a specific meeting but they are accumulators only and how many of them fail. Remember what Royjohn said about Bookies loving multiples. SDS had 6 rides today and not bad results leaving it to the last race to bag a winner. His 4 rides at Thirsk produced 3 payable places 2 seconds and a third and the 2 rides at newcastle 1 first. A Tote place only yankee at Thirsk paid a net point profit of 27.5 if one deducts 11 win losers if one had done win also that would reduce the net profit to 16.5. Doing just place doubles on the six rides produced net profit of 15.75 points profit. If one had done them all ew then the 15 losing win bets reduced the profit to .75 points. I conclude from this very limited exercise that it pays to do only place multiple bets for more consistent profits and forget about the win side. The draw back is one has to stay bettinng all the time front load the bets and divide winnings up to place on the later horse rides.One could conclude it is too much hassle and bother and bookies rely on the punters not to do it which is why they don't don't offer the convenience of place multiples excecpt accumulators.

i'm over the moon SDS delivered again with the last race. recovered all his previous losers and another £40 in the bag and Cathy had a great 25/1 second which I did tote place only but Harry gets all the plaudits with his 14/1 today. Cheers Harry. keep em coming.

NO one beats Harry's inside info. 14/1 great I got it at 10/1 but will be paid the 14 /1 rounded off a days racing that was none too clever so far. too many 2nds. I stood to win a packet on the SDS ride but don't care who delivers.

Too many horses to choose from. Chevalier NEW 17.15 6/1 OUTSIDER has been good for me. fun name alans pride 5.05 THIRSK 3/1

long odds on small race Sir Mark Prescott's Tafalou at 33/1 the rank outsider in the last race at wolvh may be worth a £1ew?

Good job I didn't cash it in. A lot of money must have been placed on Cathy as I got it at 7/1 last night and sp was 9/4. Great days racng SDS, CATHY, HARRY and new chap 20YORK all delivering. WTD has Neopolionic in the 20.45 at WOLV I believe its his only ride so may be worth a punt. I got 10/1 last night but he is presently 12/1. Damn late withdrawals are eating into the profits that's three times in the last couple of days.If it had been a £1k bet on Cathy I would probably have cashed it in and be regetting that I had done so.

MY £14 ODD BET ON AQUA LIBRA IS SHOWING A MASSIVE CASH OUT VALUE OF DOUBLE THE AMOUNT BEFORE THE RACE STARTS