Member Info for Lee1235

droverman - for pure ai companies that can ring true however a lot of them are already market leaders in the it industry - like microsoft with 0365 / xbox etc. amazon in retail and also aws. broadcom with vmware / networking / wireless / servers etc. so they are not 1 trick ponies. thats why i see this current state different to the dot.com era. google is proving much stronger than expected as i thought search was under threat with ai but its adapted very well. meta screwed up with the meterverse but is changing direction now and the recent results show this. in the states the companies tend to focus on investment in growth other divis and i think the results of the last decade show this is working vs the uk / eu approach.

i agree it seems like a ponzi scheme at times but its not. they are working together to address the risk on china winning the ai race. by doing it this way its speeding things up and will move towards agi - which is the point i will go hide in some remote cabin and wait for the worlds end. regardless china will just steal the ipr, rename it and say they won d:). 6 years for chips is ok for useful life. over time the price per unit will come down - and vs say servers you normally run them for 5 years before they should be replaced.

tom - not sure what your comment is meant to mean. obviously the execs will be sold on this. within the next 5 years many of the junior / mid level jobs will be gone. i expect most junior / mid level people are still sat thinking this wont affect me. i talk to 1 team of developers i manage who tell me ai wont replace me, whilst i am sat looking at tools my company is already providing - so that i can replace people.

i will give a great example from this week:

i am waiting for 3 weeks for a technical design document from an architect. the guy ****es me off with the slow output, so i use chatgpt and get the design done in less than 2 hours from start to finish. in future, why do i need an architect? i can just use chatgpt and have a guy approve it in half a day. so if i have 10 architects and i can probably reduce that down to 5. and this also speeds up delivery of a project by weeks, with very little cost, little manual effort which means i am now able to increase output and therefore can sell more. alongside it i also managed to get the full project plan created which again would take someone a few weeks to manually sort that.

some comments from element around power and copper etc which is very valid. it will help ggp and miners plus i also expect nuclear energy usage to increase. so there are some critical industries which also benefit from this.

Element - they are investing for future returns. The market is acting as if the returns should be instant. Ok - its not happening as fast the market expects - does it ever?

Revenue matters. Cashflow comes from sales. Amazon generated 11 Billion USD free cash flow for the year which is low vs operating cashflow. In metals we have some limitations based on mine output / reserves but if you read what Amazon is doing, they are targeting multiple revenue streams in future, the release mentions satellites / robotics etc. So in time these companies will see AI generate money in multiple different ways. Look at what the cloud did for the US economy and whats happening is much much bigger. The cloud took most providers datacenters and placed it in a big tech datacenter and called it a cloud. On the surface its nothing but the results are crazy.

Im not listening to some guy called Dan - i understand tech and i know what the future is bringing. Its not even far away. Check out what the Open Ai and Anthorpic are saying about coding - they dont do it any more is the statement. They use AI. Those roles are 100k+ for a good developer role and within a few years there will be very few positions. That will reduce cost.

Can we agree to disagree? I enjoy your posts on gold / GGP / metals but i dont agree with your comments on tech and i never will. I have watched what big tech has done to the industry in the last 10 years and i expect the coming decade will show even bigger changes.

For now we have a share sale so we should enjoy that instead.

Ntl101. Great and I am genuinely pleased for you. I have done well with GGP so far. Obviously there is a part of me that wishes I put more in earlier but truth is I put what I could risk at that time. Around 20% of my portfolio is GGP now which I am comfortable with

What's happening in the markets at the minute is great if you have some spare cash.

Element

Maybe don't consider yourself an expert in IT when you are talking to an actual IT expert who has worked in the industry for 20 years FFS. Ai is not been 'sold' to me. I work in a very senior position for a global IT company and use AI with my customers every single day. I know what AI is capable of and I have a good view where this will go with AGI.

Amazon shares was killed last night. They announced 800 bill revenue for the year. All because of concerns on hardware spend. Which is needed. Go check some of the new tooling mentioned in the release. One of them, you give it a task and it goes and figures it out on its own. I think for now it related to fixing software bugs however it will be possible to reapply that in multiple environments.

AI actually scares me because of the independence its gaining.

Nvidia I agree is over rated. But for now it's sales are increasing at a crazy rate every year.

Apple .. you are giving your view. Seems the world doesn't agree with you. Your view doesn't mean its fact. Apple just recorded recorded revenue in the latest results and the news article says: This growth was heavily driven by unprecedented demand for the iPhone, which brought in a record $85.3 billion in revenue.

Its a few years before these companies start generating 1 trillion revenue. What would the price of gold need to be for Newmount to make that? Over 1 million an ounce? So impossible in our lifetimes.

So please dont try educate me when you haven't bothered reading the actually company results. Nothing to do with the MSM like you state. I can read a company balance sheet.

As I said GGP will do very well but I'm not daft enough to put all my eggs in 1 basket.

Speedie I wouldn't say the current debt levels are not payable. Its not likely a major economy that prints its own currency can default.

Take a look at Japan. Their debt is around 250% debt to GDP. That I do think is unsustainable. Its only a problem now because of the interest rate.

What I assume will happen is governments will change their inflation targets and put less focus on controllimg inflation. With lower interest rates to reduce interest payments.

You also talk in nominal terms which is misleading. By 2029 its expected the world debt will reach similar levels as the aftermath of WW2 when comparing debt to global GDP. So there is still time on this.

Element 1 - dont be a d1ck.

Gold has beaten some index funds, fine. It doesn't mean it beat all individual shares. Nvidia went from 1 dollar to over 200 dollars in a decade. its down 20% from its highs.

I do believe in GGP but i disagree with your views at times. Newmount is the worlds largest gold producer who made 21 billion USD revenue in the year up until September. If the price of gold goes up by 4x then they will still generate less than 100 billion revenue per year. if that happened in 3-4 years time the that would be 10% of the revenue of Amazon. If gold goes up 10 X then Newmount would make 210 billion Revenue. Which is roughly 20% of the revenue generated by Amazon. Your maths just dont work out. Amazon sits on nearly 100 BILLION USD in cash. Microsoft the same. It will take gold to go up 4 times just for newmount to make the same revenue as the cash sitting on big techs books.

The AI build out is already included in the numbers i showed as this is the net income. So companies are investing heavily in future tech, whilst delivering huge revenue and profits.

Are the prices for tech crazy? Yes but is tech changing the world and will continue changing the world in the next decade? or is it done? Of course its not. So people are paying a premium for that. I doubt any Mag 7 company will fail in doing this given the free cashflow.

Of course i believe GGP is undervalued and it will do well in the next few years, but i also dont rule out what Tech will do at the same time.

Sorry but maybe read about big techs actual numbers and balance sheets. GGP has 1 billion cash which is great but big tech is playing a different game.

Tech is still much better than gold in terms of revenue and profit. Sorry but the amount of money generated in tech dwarfs gold. Even if Gold doubles or trebles - the profit we will make is peanuts in comparison.

Amazon is making 80 Billion + USD profit per year. My guess is this will be the 1st company to hit 1 trillion annual revenue before the decade is out

Broadcom - 23 Billion USD Profit

Microsoft - 100 Billion USD profit

NvidIa - 72 Billion USD Profit

Apple - 112 Billion USD Profit

I dont think the bubble will burst properly, despite what people claim. There will be drops but reality is these companies print money. Thats despite heavy investment into AI. People compare the situation to the dot.com fiasco but there is a big difference, these companies have actual revenue today and back then it was a promise of future revenue, which most companies failed to generate in the end, hence the prolonged drop.

With GGP we will get to maybe 4 billion USD revenue with Hav online? I dont think we can say that mining stocks will surpass big tech any day soon.

A few days ago the company issued an RNS that shows great fundamentals.

Cash in the bank

Gold to sell which they didn't manage to sell in December

No debt

Likely resource upgrade coming any time soon

Results at the upper end of guidance

Whats changed? Just the share price - which happens. It cant be compared to the 2020 company. Its not the same.

I topped up. These days are a dream if you are investing for the long term.

Dont panic.

Some of the comments here suggest we are at the apocalypse or something.

Nothing ever turns out as good or bad as expected. So it's likely we will see high inflation but talk of 250 pound oil etc is crazy. Considering its low because there is too much supply vs demand. And I do expect Iran will fall and will enter the oil market properly meaning lower prices. Same is happening with Venezuela.

Come on its not going to be that bad.

Example for the US in December only 9 or so percent of the government revenue come from corporation tax. If the US needs money they just need to increase taxes on corporations. This reduces the need for a part of the debt.

Tbf though it's a real shame these so called smart people in government don't have the balls to do the simple things to fix the problems.

Lesboy - its good that they are out, with no impact on the SP.

I recall some of the usual crowd sharing their concerns last year on how much damage this would cause to the SP when Newmount decided to sell up.

A non event in the end.

Looks like trump has thrown a tantrum on europe and the UK. New tarrifs applied for not supporting his Greenland plan.

Should be food for gold.

Element1 - fully agree

I found it on this link, https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/top-6-asx-takeover-picks-for-2026-and-reviewing-last-year-s-picks-including-one-10-bagger

Hence i think its nonsense.

Element1 - I am not sure i like this Ben's analysis.

I checked and back in April, GGP sent the forecast of 260 - 300 Oz for 2027. But since then we seem to have some upside from the drilling - like ECS / Central and Tarkin that was handed over to the Operations team so i imagine he is talking out of his backside to suit his narrative. It seems to me he is pushing for a takeover of Antipa.

I was thinking we do have a single point of failure with having 1 plant so wouldn't it make sense to keep a buffer of gold, to use to mitigate any possible downtime? I'm not talking about share price and the market, but managing the operational risk. Unsold gold is a nice balance sheet asset to have if needed.

Philbrim it's more likely that guys like you will lose people money.

I don't love a single company on this planet, not even the company I have worked 20 years for. And in investing you shouldn't fall in love with a company.

But the research that people are doing here is showing very positive news coming and so far the company has delivered extremely well so they have my trust. What negatives are there?

I can see the risks, price of gold reducing, operational issues or delays to Hav. But then that's the balance of risk vs reward. All sectors of the markets have risks. I honestly can't see gold reducing any time soon. Operational issues, well I assume the fact we have produced more gold than sold over the last year is a form of risk management from the company so that they have a buffer avaliable for any downtime in future, which makes sense. Then delays to Hav would be mitigated by having higher volume from Telfer, which the WDD and Telfer resource update in the next few months should mitigate.

What else is there?

You should never take investment advice from a board. If you do then you shouldn't be investing.

watchthisspace - **** off with cross ramping. stick to the gst board, donkey.

Thanks Dipp for adding more info.

TomE - Happy new year.

So approvals are hopefully granted by the end of June. Its not long to wait.

TomE

In the feasibility study there was this info:

Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth) (EPBC) and Environmental Protection Act 1986 (WA) (EP Act) approvals are required for Havieron's development, including construction of three additional evaporation ponds that are required before restarting the Permian decline development. Hence, these approvals are critical path for the Havieron Project.

These approvals are targeted for FY26, however the timing for their receipt is dependent on completion of the ongoing approval processes with the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority (WA EPA) and the Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW). Works approval for construction of additional evaporation ponds has already been granted.

Paddy posted recently so how that these approvals where out for comments.

So it looks like the items on the critical path are progressing. I doubt too much will happen until these approvals are in place.

moon******

share your analysis here then? or guessing you cant share something drawn with crayons on the net.

i do think you are thick. said it many times.

prove your data then instead of just been a *******.

Littlepost. My bad. Sincere apologies for my mistake.

No excuses.