Member Info for latpulldown

On a staycation break at the minute and just put some custom x 3 through my first Picture House cinema and cafe / restaurant today. (Owned by Cineworld).

Very impressed with the quality of food offering and the accompanying alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, the politeness of the staff and the film offerings.

Slightly higher end but plenty of customers as well when I was there.

Absolutely spot on Blue Buxton,

Lets hope they take us back to the 87.4p that was robbed from so many.

Equally as important as the Infection rate is the death rate.

Yesterday they late released the death rate and most missed it but it dropped significantly back down to the 20's (28). Today it is down to only 14.

3rd wave scaremongering that caused so much damage to this share price, on the data the last few days, looks to be behind us.

Pandemic of the unvaccinated now imho.

GET VACCINATED and convince those that haven't been to do the same. It may actually save their lives.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I only agree with rising Covid cases being the reason for the fall Lhall.

I am aware that shorts are disclosable to the FCA at 0.1%. It's on their website. Also aware that we only ever get to see the published ones over 0.5%. I've mentioned it on here before. Similarly it's 3% for holdings RNS's and we never get to hear of any right up to 2.999999%.

Blue Buxton's observations confirmed.

5th Day on the trot of a fall in the infection rate. In actual fact the trend reversal started to the day after Freedom day, on the 18th July.

*54674 Infections on the 17th July
*Now down to 29173 reported tonight.

*46% fall in a week.

So we all sat here and watched the ultra cautionery Sage scientist headlines and interviews stating absolutely the wrong time to unlock. The Downing Street briefings of a doubling in Covid numbers every 9 to 10 days (when numbers were 50k+) and urging caution, backed by modelling data, and the PM failing to rule out the potential for further restrictions. 3rd Wave and apparently being about mid cycle.

Result a hammering to share prices in leisure, hospitality, retail and airline stocks over the next few weeks.

Reality as a result of the latest data - looking a whole lot different tonight.

It would be nice if the powers that be took it back to the 87.4p (and higher) where the share price was prior to infection rates rising and "Project Fear", as I call it, kicking in.

Probably the cue for another 1/4 plus "equivalent" of the issued share capital of Cineworld to be traded over the next couple of weeks.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

PS - if you know anybody that qualifies and has not had the vaccine yet can you persuade them to get on and get both doses.

Sammy18, good to hear from you and a perfectly valid point.

Better wording on my part would have been that over 1/4 "equivalent" of the issued share capital of Cineworld has been traded since that date.

Still though - not one holdings RNS and only a 0.14% increase in shorts.

Biggest winners. The market makers and those handling the share transactions.

It probably is an attempt at a scare story Cruis1. Minor film and not even on the Cineworld list so I won't be wasting my time on google searching.

Great news that Blue Buxton on the infection rates.

If you read my earlier post the primary reason for why the share price is where it was rising Covid infection rates. See my previous post correlating key dates with rising numbers and the share price graph and corresponding coverage.

I'll have a butchers.

Thanks Cruis for the clarification. You will see that I responded to Blue Buxton in between times also.

Just caught a smell of my Sunday dinner.

I sthat the smell of a Sunday dinner

It would appear the link I posted isn't working. Here though is the Cut and Paste to year end.

The Green Knight is not on the list. Dark Knight sequel or the Batman, which is pencilled in for 4th March might be more significant.

19th May 2021 – Nomadland
19th May 2021 – Peter Rabbit 2
19th May 2021 – Godzilla vs Kong
19th May 2021 – Spiral: From the Book of Saw
19th May 2021 – Raya and the Last Dragon
19th May 2021 – Judas and the Black Messiah
19th May 2021 – Those Who Wish Me Dead
19th May 2021 – The Unholy
19th May 2021 – Mortal Kombat
19th May 2021 – Tom & Jerry: The Movie
28th May 2021 – Cruella
28th May 2021 – The Conjuring 3: The Devil Made Me Do It
4th June 2021 – A Quiet Place: Part II
4th June 2021 – Dream Horse
9th June 2021 – Nobody
11th June 2021 – The Father
18th June 2021 – In The Heights
24th June 2021 – Fast 9
25th June 2021 – Supernova
2nd July 2021 – Another Round
9th July 2021 – Black Widow
30th July 2021 – Jungle Cruise
6th August 2021 – The Suicide Squad
13th August 2021 – Free Guy
27th August 2021 – Candyman
3rd September 2021 – Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
17th September 2021 – Dune
17th September 2021 – Venom: Let There Be Carnage
30th September 2021 – No Time To Die
15th October 2021 – Halloween Kills
29th October 2021 – Last Night In Soho
5th November 2021 – Eternals
12th November 2021 – Ghostbusters: Afterlife
19th November 2021 – Top Gun: Maverick
10th December 2021 – West Side Story
17th December 2021 – Spider-Man: No Way Home
22nd December 2021 – The King's Man
24th December 2021 – The Matrix 4

Same reply Blue Buxton,

Cruis1,

You do realise that Cineworld haven't even got the Green Knight listed as showing.

Maybe more relevant to the "independant" cinema chains.

I think everyone can get the general picture of who is trying to trade and isn't presently holding stock.

https://www.cineworld.co.uk/static/en/uk/blog/new-movie-release-dates-everything-you-need-to-know.

Incidentally Since 13th July – 380,822,652 shares in this company have been traded.
Total Shares In Issue £1,373 Million.
So over 1/4 of the issued share capital in Cineworld has changed hands.

*Not one Holdings RNS notifying of any change in holding off our Institutional Investors.
*Only 1 minor increase in short positions amounting to an increase of 0.14% of the shares available in the company 1922200 amounting to about £1.25M

Statistics which I myself find completely incredible.

bullsbears, Interesting comparison with NEX first of all for the trends in their share prices and similarities.

You asked for thoughts and here are my own to add to that of any other replies.

I have to agree with LGHall that the bulk of any recent drop in the CINE share price for me is predominantly Covid related. That plus all falls on CINE get exaggerated due to traders, market making and short interests (not the over 0.5% disclosed ones, but the less than 0.5% ones that escape the radar) To put context on things.

*Only on the 5th July the share price finished the day at 87.48p. (Chart below)
* This was exactly 1 week prior 12th July - announcement date by the PM on Freedom Day.
* In the week prior Covid cases in the UK started to rise.
* We then got the cautious Sage members vocalising in the press that we shouldn't unlock. Then you got Govt Ministers coming out talking about watered down Freedom Day measures (e.g still having to wear masks etc)
*12th July you got the press ahead with Freedom Day but with accompanying doom-laden press briefings of warnings of doubling of infection rates every 9 to 10 days and to expect a lot more death and urging Caution. (No doubt heavily influenced by the Behavioural scientists that Crumpets highlighted). All creating that element of fear. The PM then failing to rule out that fresh restrictions in the future adds.
*Then add the press across the back of all this multiplying the story and compounding the message.
*12th July against rising infections - we unlock
* 19th July - Freedom Day comes. Just to point out that the Infection rate on the Friday just prior to FD stands at 54,674 and the highest it has been. All these events covered and magnified in press coverage.

* The share price imho mirrors this exactly but with two jumps back upwards.
* You can probably add in a bit more for Black Widow day and date release and the the pirating debate. BW released on the 7th July. Disney releasing imv misleading streaming numbers and whereby "global" streaming numbers $60M were being compared to Domestic US Box Office $80M for the opening weekend. When it should have been against $156M global Box office take. *One of those jumps back upwards came after Mooky was interviewed by Deadline (link below)

But let me just say this - from the point on the 17th July - when the infection rate rose to 54674 and it's highest, the press didn't pick up on the next two days immediately leading to Freedom day, seeing falls in the infection rate. In fact it has taken them until Friday to start publicly commenting and acknowledging what have been readily apparent falls in the infection rate. (31,759 yesterday)
*Chart
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=CINE&share=Cineworld
*Mooky Interview
https://deadline.com/2021/07/mooky-greidinger-interview-black-widow-day-cineworld-1234793975/#comments

The Cine specific stuff won't be applicable to Nex but the rest I suspect will.

It's just handy small trader to know that any threats re litigation for back payment of rent at this time is a toothless tiger as the preserve at the moment is in trying to get a compromise solution first.

If HMSO's solution is the norm it led to a 30% reduction in rents (and ended up with them collecting the vast majority of 2020 rents) at 89%. The rest I would probably put down to Debenhams, Top Shop. Miss Selfridge's and all the other associated companies.

It really serves no purpose for a landlord to force a previously profitable business to walk away from it's lease and shutter up. As is the case with Silverburn and many other such premises in City Centres and retail parks then there a vast number of pubs, bars and restaurants that feed off the passing custom for cinemas and vice versa. Indeed that is why you find many co-located around them.

Small trader,

Those that follow Hammerson will also know, for I posted it on the HMSO bulletin board, that on the 30th June 21, that the balance of things was expected to tip in favour of Commercial landlords by enabling them to initiate means to collect the back payment of rents. Admittedly though, most tenants had already renegotiated, sorted out different payment schedules, agreed discounts or had actually paid their rents, and some of the outstanding amounts were written off.

However on the 16th June - the Government extended the protections to Tenants (and that would include Cineworld) until the 25th March 2022. That 1 property therefore you will probably find is protected by Govt directive and legislation.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eviction-protection-extended-for-businesses-most-in-need

Cineworld in any case now have circa 770 sites worldwide (2 more recently picked up in the US, 1 added in Romania now opened and another set to open in Romania before the end of the year.

https://www.cineworldplc.com/en/about-us/key-facts

*Hammerson incidentally for anyone interested at it's last rent collection update on the 15th July RNS'd the market that it had collected 89% of it's 2020 rents. That's good going.

Good afternoon small trader.

I actually have interests in the Landlord side of things as well, Hammerson being one suchg landlord.

It owns Silverburn which is a large shopping centre on the southern side of Glasgow in which Cineworld has a 14 screen cinema, and multiple feeder venues situated on the approach to the escalator to Cineworld. It's been mentioned before on here.

Hammerson cut it's rent to all tenants to 70% of what was due in light of the pandemic and I believe that Cineworld have 3 cinemas in HMSO properties that will have directly benefited.

No Time article on that one.

https://www.shopsilverburn.com/leisure

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56770600

One of the benefits of having a diverse portfolio and the knowledge that comes with it.

See my next post.

I won't thank Boris Johnson and Co for the damage done to most leisure, retail and airline stocks (and other sectors as well) over the last few weeks in trying to get their message across. It either worked or Joe Public maintained high levels of already existing discipline.

I might though wish to thank those Behavioural scientists advising them for the opportunity that any scaremongering approach may have presented on some share prices.

As the data stands tonight the prospect of further restrictions and lockdowns, which the PM failed to rule out at the time of the Freedom Day briefings is now looking remote, and the modelling has got it wrong. AGAIN !!

Onwards to The Suicide Squad, Jungle Cruise and Spirit Untamed (for the kids) next weekend and I intend to part of 1 if not 2 of those opening weekends Box Office.

As the data stands at the moment it looks like we can wave goodbye to any supposed 3rd wave and it has to be said what has probably largely accounted for the last few weeks falls after Boris Johnson scaremongering Freedom Day news conference.

Another noticeable further reduction in the Daily infection rates today. In about a week to 10 days time these reductions should filter through into the hospitalisation and death rates.

That's them down from 54674 only 1 week ago on the 17th July and now down to only 31759 on the 24th July.

Looks like the vast majority of the public are still taking it cautiously and are not "ripping the pants" out Freedom Day (Professor Jonathan Van Tam).

Natural firebreak of school children now on school holidays should also help.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9821277/Britains-daily-Covid-cases-fall-fourth-day-row-41-drop-week.html

I'll give the press their dues this time around. They do seem to have picked up in the declines in infection rate. Mr Pym on the BBC news last night seemed to have picked up on it and so have the Mail and other tabloids.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9818821/Britains-daily-Covid-cases-fall-36-389-positive-tests.html

So by pointing out the contradictions in the wording in your post or asking you what your financial qualifications are which causes you to make sweeping generalisations and assumptions then somebody is "unreasonable".

*If you are not presently practising as an accountant or financial analyst with present and up to date qualifications then your analysis is no different from anyone else on here.

Furthermore as stated there are simply too many unknowns right now to be even hazarding a guess. Then you have outlook statements as well.

Plenty on here that have knowledge of their way round balance sheets and can read RNS's, particularly ones on Liquidity.

You need to be precise in what you are saying otherwise people will pick you up and your posting history is always there to remind you.

I wish you a good weekend.

The lowest of our analyst ratings is presently 75p and that goes up to 115p @Barclays.

Cruis baby,

MK doubled up with Demon Slayer for a quick 1-2 weekend that actually improved on the Godzilla versus Kong weekend that you so applauded.

Its bedtime.