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Russia’s demise - lol, what a topic

How ret@rded one should be to seriously discuss it this way in Oct 24?

Trump’s winning the race is a great thing for FXPO, the share price speaks for itself most recently

Still, a couple of idiots, who surely sit with a 70-80% loss, dare to complain about it

For every MATD share trade, there are four posts today, quite a ratio!

Does it mean the share price is to quadriple in the next four weeks?))

In the last two months (Aug and Sept), Russia has gained 5 times more territory in Ukraine than in 2023 combined. Basicallly, it is now 300-400 km2 every month and increasing

On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are pretty much destroyed in Kursk and whatever is left will likely step back to the Ukrainian territory in the next few weeks

Coupled with Trump becoming a new US President, this will potentially open a room for negotiations

Ukraine will have to accept the inevitable truth that the four regions are lost

If it continues living in miracles, the four oblasts will turn into six and then into eight. 20% of lost territory will become 40%

Hamm, again and again you keep saying nonsense regarding MATD per barrel valuation, which you claim is 0.06p per boo (whatever that means)

With 60 mmbbl of recoverable reserves (I take this number for granted) and 35 mn pounds MCAP, that's almost 60 pence per barrel. Or US$0.78/bbl

Tha latter number is not a huge undervaluation, given the reserves are not producing (and possibly not even proved undeveloped) and taking into account so many other risk factors specific to MATD current situation)

Contrary to all Zelensky us saying, he doesn’t need peace. He wants to continue the war, he wants to continue getting billions in financial aid, from which his subordinates can easily steal

For him peace means elections, which he will most likely lose

And then possibly go to jail for what he has done to Ukraine

At least electricity is currently available, whatever the price

In a few months time it will likely be not

A couple of idiots continue to post various nonsense day after day going further and further from reality. It is so far from what’s really going on now that one can’t even laugh at it

All holders should be prepared that FXPO production will be severely disrupted these winter

And pray that once Donetsk region is fully under Russian control, it doesn’t go to Poltava

Had Ukraine signed a peace agreement back in 2022, it would have retained sovereignty over four regions including Donbass. It has lost them by now

There is a price to be paid for being stupid

Two years from now and the square of lost territories will only increase

It seems to me that Zelensky has set up an invasion to Kursk with an only objective of not having any peace negotiations eventually. He clearly understood this would immediately become a no-go for Russia

No peace means he can continue to stay in power for as long as the war continues. No peace means he and his subordinates can continue stealing from billions of financial aid provided by his masters

There is no other sense in sending thousands of some of Ukraine's best remaining soldiers to commit a mass suicide

Good analysis, Lemontree

I did several trades on FXPO in the last five years, most of them resulted in decent profits. The last one, which I closed immediately after I heard about Kursk invasion, was a 7% loss. Roughly, 3.5k in absolute numbers, on a 100k shares trade

Since then FXPO dropped another 20%. And now there is only one way road, to the south

Ukraine is doomed, it will be the hardest winter for them and there will be no peace talks any time soon. My base case scenario is that FXPO will have to stop its production lines because of severe electricity shortages

MCap will then go further down to almost equal the net cash. Have a look at ENW as an example

Once all of the Donetsk region is under Russia’s control (should not take more than couple of months now), the question is what next step will it take?

Looks like it will be one of the following:

1) Take control of the remaining parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions still controlled by Ukraine

2) Create a buffer alongsige the Ukraine’s northern border with Russia to minimize negative impact on Kursk and Belgorod regions

3) Move alongside the Black Sea coastline, first towards Nikolaev and subsequently towards Odessa

In this regard Poltava is pretty safe

Whatever Russia chooses, that will only mean more pain for Ukraine. Losing only four regions (plus, obviously, Crimea) will soon look like too-good-to-be true

My best guess is that this winter Ukraine will experience huge shortages of electricity supply. Obviously, industrial producers will be hit the hardest. FXPO will most likely be among those

Dire future, for the country, for the economy and for Ukrainian people. Only because a few clowns once believed they would be saved by their masters

In the meantime, Zelensky is seriously contemplating a peace summit in India, where he reluctantly agrees to invite Russia.

Lol, what a bunch of clowns

Good points, Minecheck

Most losers here (and I am only referring to results of their investments in FXPO, lol) have no clue. They simply fail to understand the most basic things, they do not whatsoever understand Russia's rationale, what it does and why. And what will it likely do further under certain circumstances

If there is further escalation from Ukraine, it will be sent to medieval times eventually, as a country and as an economy. Its power generation will be destroyed completely, among other things. Kiev will become another Gaza

FXPO will stop its production lines, all of them. But that will be just a bit of a pity compared to other consequences

There will be no peace talks any time soon, this option simply eveporated because of Ukraine. It may well be the case they did it on purpose to escape accepting they have lost

Before Kursk, 80% of Russian had supported the war, now it is 95+%. The number of volunteers eager to go to the frontline just skyrocketed

But idiots here still dream about Russia's surrender. Unbelievable

Wow, Ukraine is winning, again. This time for sure! Lol

Apparently, a new delivery of some potent drugs most recently

In the meantime, seems to be a good entry point for FXPO, started to accumulate a position. Ukraine's loss is FXPO's gain, as simple as that

Good deal for Ukraine. But its US and UK sponsors will not allow it to happen. As they didn't let Ukraine sign the peace deal back in 2022

In two years time, the offer which is on the table now, will be seen as too good to be true

Taking Crimea, lol. What do you smoke there?

How can one be so delusional and far from reality to believe this nonsense

Good point, DisasterTourist

So is is either someone forced to sell or insiders selling in front of some negative announcement

Volume is scary indeed

Seems like it will fall below 40 next week. Wouldn’t be surprised too much to see a plunge on some not very good news

If there is a ceasefire, it will be a great window of opportunity for FXPO. It can easily increase 5+ times from current levels, provided there is no asset loss

But in 1-2 years time, the conflict will start again, pretty much for sure. There is no long-term solution, unfortunately, and the ceasefire can only be a temporary one

Both Russia and Ukraine will just use this break to prepare for the next round. Pretty much inevitable

It will take decades to resolve it one way or another. Pretty grim a situation

Surely, that would be a great accomplishment for Russia

Donetsk, Lugansk, parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Inland route to Crimea

Modernized army, so much better than the one at the war start

Economy adapted to sanctions and growing

Would be good to put the conflict on halt. Sure thing. Not for Ukraine though