Member Info for Kingfisher68

...below £1.20. Not sure what has caused this stock price to decline in recent weeks, perhaps nervousness at forthcoming Starmer tax rises. Thoughts?

Forward PE of 5.5x & EV:EBITDA 3.9x apparently (my calculations, DYOR). This seems very cheap for the sector. No dividends or buybacks to date but presumably the £132m net debt could be paid down to zero in 5 years with will & the right 'trade winds' (net debt reduced £35m in one year). Sold some MCB at around the £1.40 mark but tempted to top up at

Congratulations, UpDowns. Welcome to the club.

Impressed by how management (Friday) and the Board of Directors (today) handled this brouhaha (love that word) by the Osun State government's advisors. Dismissed as 'false claims and allegations'. No breakdown/explanation of the $1.9m number ever received. Osun State actually reduced their claim to $62,500 (for 2019-2024) before their Friday clown show! Strong complaints made to Federal Ministry of Mines & Osun State Governor. Welcome to the weird & wonderful world of Nigerian business. Those with a nervous & risk averse disposition on this chat should avoid.

Topped up our holding by 20%. Share price +7.4% according to our screen. DYOR.

No. Never cave in to a 'first request', especially given the public fashion in which this has been aired. One has to engage with the relevant government body in a transparent and professional way. It seems the $2m tax claim hasn't been detailed/substantiated. Ask them for their calculations/evidence/logic and take it from there. Management has to be patient, strong & disciplined. If you cave in to every request like this you'll have a rather long line of folks with their hands out at the door to the finance department!

From watching Vancouver the share price seems to be £0.171 equivalent. EV:EBITDA around 1x & PE below 2x. My fund is a buyer at these prices, for better or for worse. Should be a fun week. DYOR.

Will be interesting to look back at this thread on September 29, 2025.

I've been a NED of a Nigerian company in recent years and regard this scenario as 'very Nigerian'. My Nigerian friends in the business community agree. A state government is claiming, to great fanfare & publicity, that THX & Friends owe $2m equivalent in unpaid taxes. The glorious politician is shaming the horrible foreign investor. I assume the company will dispute this in the nearest future. This situation is irritating, but in my opinion will be dealt with & won't have a material long-term impact on a strongly profitable & exciting entity. I own 0.18% of the company & won't be panic-selling a bean, having been a battle-hardened investor in emerging markets since the 1990s. Anyone afraid of volatile, frontier, uncertain emerging markets like Nigeria, Senegal & the Ivory Coast shouldn't be investing in stocks like this and should run away now. This won't be the last 'troubling chapter' in the THX story given the nature of the sector and the nature of the geography.

Tempted to dip back into this stock after the inevitable share price decline following the poor H1 2024 results/dividend slashing. What are everyone’s thoughts on H2 2024 to date? Seems like EV:EBITDA is 1.7x based upon H1 2024 numbers and Richard Bay/Newcastle has firmed since then.

EBITDA & net profit significantly down. Dividend slashed by 80%. Net cash reserves depleted. Let's not pretend that H1 2024 results are good news for shareholders. Possibly a good time to duck out of TGA, though one can argue that the business is still 'cheap' and H2 2024 should bring more positive results.

Time to buy this morning

I'm not convinced by this one. There has been a lot of positivity/ramping in recent weeks, but MTRO remains a loss-making bank with a shocking track record as a listed company. Good luck to every shareholder here (including my brother) but I'll believe the turnaround when it's a reality rather than projections/hot air. Maybe I'm missing out...

Why the large share price rise today?

Net cash of £157m. Net financial investments of £219m. By my reckoning JUP has an EV of around £70m and therefore EV:EBITDA well below 1. This is a very profitable, dividend-paying organisation managing £51b being valued as if it's on death's door. Wouldn't write off a special dividend at a later date.

Doubled our stake in AXL this morning to 0.2% of the company. Thanks once again for the high quality of posts on this forum. Love the combination of production/cashflow 'bedrock' and potential exploration upside here. Good luck to the AXL team on the ground.

LincolnLad, I think it's a number of factors dragging this share price down:

1. Woeful performance as a publicly listed company. A lot of investors have been burnt badly in the past.

2. Indebtedness. Net debt of £358m rather high compared to FCF £101m.

3. Declining sales & profits. 12% drop last year and could get worse. Net income -46%.

4. Punchy valuation multiples. Forward PE 24.9x (Yahoo) though historic PE & EV:EBITDA not too demanding.

5. Capped dividend. Will be £0.0255 maximum FY25 (sensible in my opinion).

We are left saying that 'the shoes are cool' and 'the brand is iconic'. Great if a suitor wants to jump in and give shareholders a modest premium. Until then we have to hope that the cost action plan works and the sales decline is reversed.

I would short this one if I shorted as a trading strategy.

Taken a 0.1% stake in this company today (thanks for all the helpful comments on this thread). Love the 'perfect storm' of low valuation multiples, good cashflows & exploration upside. Don't think the market has latched on to the Q1 2024 trading update and factored in the recent volume uptick. May double/triple the stake on trading and exploration updates.

Any idea what is driving the rise in the share price today?

IRR of 215% on this one in recent months. Selling down 15% of our holding at these prices but reckon there is more upside. Awaiting next trading statement with interest.

Not been a great share this (-6%) but strongly believe JUP is wildly undervalued. Significant AUMA of £52.6b despite everything. MC £404m, net cash & investments £366m, EV £38m. If things continue this company will be valued at less than her net cash & investments. Jumped into Costain when things were similar and got rewarded for my patience and faith. EBITDA £109m so EV:EBITDA a ludicrous 0.35x. Am I missing something? Oh, and a dividend yield of 12.4% (including the special).

I'm not a shareholder here (yet) but I love the brand and have worn Docs with pride and attitude since the late 1980s. Be honest, is there any compelling, non-emotional reason to invest here, apart from 'there might be a takeover bid at these low valuations' (always a red flag when it gets to this point). The latest results were horrible and seem likely to continue. PE multiples are now high. Debt is a rather hefty £358m. And the dividend will be capped at £0.0255 per share in FY25 (probably sensible). Agreed, the 'cost action plan' of £20m-£25m is a positive for shareholders.

Thoughts?

We love the fundamentals of this stock and hold a small stake.

But how seriously should we take the Mali country risk? Military government. New mining code. Islamists operating in the region. Rumours of forced nationalisation of another gold mine. Time to buy on the dip, or time to sell?