Member Info for Kingfisher68

We sold 62.5% of our LIO stake in the 2 weeks leading up to the results announcement (at around £4 average). In hindsight this was a mistake. We should have sold everything.

The days of 20% dividend yields are gone. We expected this based upon the fundamentals. The move to the new formula (50% of EPS) is sensible and was unavoidable. What will the dividend be going forward? EPS last year was £0.568 and this company is in decline, some would say terminal. Let's assume an EPS of £0.50 next year and a dividend of £0.25 (for the sake of argument only - there are 1,001 different scenarios obviously). This suggests a dividend yield of around 6.9% based upon the current share price.

One of the posters on here suggests a share price in the near future of £2.50. With a dividend in 2025-2026 of £0.25 this is a dividend yield of 10%. This share price level and this dividend yield aren't unreasonable given the performance of the company in the past 4 years. There is a possibility that the LIO share price will decline significantly in the coming year.

Are there any glimmers of hope? Annualised savings of £6m have been banked, which is a good sign (unless the savings were actually the loss of good people, which an active fund manager needs in abundance). Cash balances are good. AUMA are still a rock solid £22.7b and edged up in recent weeks. The company is profitable. Valuation multiples are low. The dividend yield remains decent. M&A is being considered. And share buybacks may happen.

For us LIO needs some transformative M&A, perhaps with the emphasis on the 'M' of M&A. Without this and new management/new ideas/new culture/new optimism we should all expect a continuation of 'managed decline'. The tone of the latest RNS announcement was rather passive (excuse the pun) and defeatist in places. 'Things have been bad for all active fund managers but the wind will change direction at some point...' What if the wind doesn't change direction?

Keeping a few shares here and hoping our analysis is wrong but we would sell if the share price spikes in the coming weeks.

Patience is a virtue, my friends

Congratulations to everyone who believed & kept the faith

Fingers crossed re some good news on production volumes in H2 2025

Revenue has nearly doubled over the past 4 years but the share price was 36% higher 4 years ago.

What am I missing here?

Not a shareholder (yet)

A dividend seems unlikely given the $50m net debt, unless I'm missing something?

What are we thinking for forecast 2025 EBITDA if the company does 45,000oz+ sales and the gold price remains at current levels? $80m+ presumably. This makes ALTN rather cheap at the current SP.

Will watch this one with interest.

We bought 0.5% of GRL this morning. Not an institution, just a modest 'family office'. Thanks for everyone on here & X for answering our questions about the company in recent days. Clearly a well-researched investor group. We make our investment with eyes wide open.

Immediate challenge is clearly to reach the much-touted 1,000oz per month and work out a schedule for paying down the gold loan. Should be a fun ride in the coming months and years. Sure there will be some ups and downs.

Good move from management. Allows us to bank $39m, pay down some of the net debt pile & focus on core assets. The market should like this, despite the (obvious) lowering of expected 2025 group production volumes.

Management focus must be on (1) making the group profitable (net income was negative in H1 2024) and (2) reducing the $105m net debt number. All of this in a lower oil price environment, so not an easy task. Give them years, not months to execute this.

Let's be realistic though. Without major asset sales there will be net debt as of December 31, 2025. And don't expect dividends in the foreseeable future. Nor should we be wanting them at this point in the company's recovery.

JSE remains cheap on an EV:BOED basis and we are sticking around for the turnaround. Keep the faith.

DYOR

Has the market woken up to this bargain this morning?

Any goods news about production in Q2 2025 should send this sharply north

DYOR

Can someone help us out with this one please:

"Following and subject to the issue of the Conversion Shares, the outstanding balance in respect of the Gold Loan and accrued interest will be reduced to 2,266.63 troy ounces, being the principal amount of 1,871.43 troy ounces plus the remaining accrued and outstanding interest of 395.20 troy ounces, which will continue to accrue interest at 14%."

At the current gold price this loan seems to be valued at $7.35m, and it's accruing interest at 14% per annum. Correct me if my logic is wrong.

The 2 scenarios seems to be:

Scenario 1 - get volumes up to 1,000oz per month or nearby asap and start paying this down quickly (but this production target has been missed by several quarters)

Scenario 2 - convert a chunk of the gold loan into shares (again), but this hands majority control to Asian Investment Management Services Limited (already 25.7% owners) and presumably risks the continued listed status of GRL

Isn't this the 'elephant in the room' at the moment, despite the positive talk?

We are considering making a decent purchase here but we don't like onerous debt

Thoughts and insights please

'Indifferent' is the best word we can think of for this Q1 2025 trading update. There are some definite positives and some clear concerns.

The positives first. Net cash increased by $0.4m during the quarter. The company has no debt. Revenues are on an upward trajectory (just). Q1 2025 EBITDA is positive & much higher than Q1 2024 (admittedly from a very low base). The Showcase global advertising marketplace is showing excellent growth (+36%). RPM was strong compared to Q1 2024.

A lot of tech/new generation companies cannot make these claims. BOOM is a 'grown-up' company that can stand on its own two feet in today's marketplace. We are not running to shareholders and lenders for finance to stay afloat.

The negatives now. Revenues for the quarter were only +1% compared to Q1 2024. Most shareholders are here because we regard BOOM as a fast-growing company in a red-hot sector (podcasting). Revenues were +13% in 2024 and we expect double-digit revenue growth in 2025 and future years. +1% is 'meh' (as my children would say) by any standards.

But the revenues are 'higher quality' in Q1 2025 than in Q1 2024? True to some extent (hence EBITDA increasing from $0.07m to $0.7m). However, the EBITDA margin remains paper-thin at 4.0%. The EBITDA margin for 2024 was 4.7% for the record (but admittedly the first quarter is a damp squib for the industry).

Downloads and video views declined from 110m in Q1 2024 to 95m in Q1 2025. Management neglected to put a percentage on that decline, while all the 'ups' were shown in bold. That is 14% down.

We need to see a clear pathway of how we get from 'here' (2024 revenue $73m & EBITDA $3.4m) to say $100m+ revenue and $10m+ EBITDA in the next 3 years. Organic top-line growth must be in double-digits. The EBITDA margin must improve on historical levels through the 'higher quality' revenue of which management speaks. And maybe we need to get clever with low-cost bolt-on acquisitions within the sector. This said, we have minimal cash to play with.

£4 seems like a fair share price at the moment ($84m MC, $80m EV). This equates to an expected 1.05x 2025 revenues. Forward EV:EBITDA is a high but possibly justifiable 17.8x. This is the most expensive valuation in our 16-company portfolio but it works if:

1. Revenue keeps growing at 10%+ per annum

2. EBITDA margins continue to improve; and

3. The USA isn't plunged into a devastating recession in 2025, causing ad spend to fall off a cliff (ahem)

We remain holders here (about 0.15% of the company) and take a longer-term quasi-private equity approach to the stock. We aren't selling a single share but neither are we topping up until we see a much more positive trading update.

Not a holder at the moment but have always liked this company and found management strong.

Is now a good time to get back in? Large net cash balance. EV:EBITDA 0.8x. PE multiple 3.7x (but on higher prices). 13.3% gross dividend yield. Share buybacks.

But downward pressure on coal prices recently for obvious reasons. Thoughts?

Tempted to rejoin the exclusive TGA Society on Friday morning.

Why is the FRP share price heading down. General global malaise or something specific to the company? The fundamentals look pretty decent.

Here is my tuppence worth on Elon's little site:

https://x.com/Kingfisher6868/status/1907033211315585340

Keeping the faith but concerned that there must be loss-making parts of this business that needs disposing of or sorting out. Otherwise why the net losses for 2023 & H1 2024? One of the few investments in our portfolio with a net debt position. Could get larger before it starts to decline.

EV:BOED rather low by global standards, if not at AXL levels.

Added 5,000 shares at £4.45

Taking a long-term view on this company so not worried about daily share price movements

More concerned with fundamentals such as revenue growth, EBITDA margin and the net cash balance

This a wonderful opportunity for all of us but, at the risk of being savaged by the foaming-mouthed trolls, I think we all need to calm down. There is a lot of uncertainty here but this grey-haired investor predicts the following things (having read the chat below):

1. The GGP share price ain't going to £1 any time soon. This is 7.6x the current share price and implies a market cap of £13.1b ($16.9b). Fantasy Island territory. Do some basic analysis of larger gold companies to reach the same conclusion. And look at the infancy of our FCF and operations.

2. GGP won't pay a dividend for a few years (and neither should they). This isn't the dividend-paying phase of this company's life. FCF should be focused on bringing Havieron into production. If you want dividends then look elsewhere, at more mature miners like CAML.

3. GGP won't be buying back shares and shouldn't be buying back shares in the nearest future. See 2 above.

In my humble opinion the current share price probably fairly values Telfer alone, given what we know about that mine (December 2024 production, resources statement etc). GGP now has a higher market cap than HOC and comparable (actually, slightly higher annualised) production. So maybe £0.15 per share for GGP is justified based upon what we currently know about this mine.

Havieron is a game-changer but we won't see revenues until late 2026 or 2027. Mine life looks good (15-20 years), ditto potential production. But once again there is oodles of uncertainty involved. There could be upside or downside surprises regarding reserves, timing, operational efficiency, gold price, copper price, global geopolitics etc.

Gold price? All we know is that the current gold price is around $3,100 per oz and on an upward trajectory for the time being. Please be realistic-sensible-conservative when building your financial models. It's easy to input a number like $4,000 per oz, $10,000 per oz etc but it's not much beyond guesswork.

In our favour, the management team has a good track record of operational delivery and the Australian stock market listing should help valuations.

Conclusion. I'm buying/have bought a large chunk of shares here and I'm hopefully taking a 2-3 year view. But I'm hoping the fear-of-missing-out brigade don't create a bubble here for everyone's sake. It's more healthy long-term if we have a share price based upon logical and solid research of the publicly-available information.

Rant over and Happy Mothers Day. DYOR.

You get 2 things when you invest in this company:

1. Share in a £28m net cash pile; and

2. Share in the 80% VLE stake in Shire Foods (profitable, growing)

We agree (see below) that the 'true value' of each share is nearer £30 than £19. Why the discount? Guess there's a risk that management/Board will mismanage the net cash pile and/or get things wrong operationally with Shire Foods. But - this management team has never done anything (to our knowledge) for us to question their faith in them. And the 'discount' seems very high.

For the record we hold a 0.47% stake in this enterprise (was 0.46% until the latest share buyback!) Tried to buy some more at £18.50 per share last week but no sellers were biting. Sensibly. We regard this as having characteristics of a private equity investment given the relatively low liquidity in the stock.

DYOR etc

New to this company but my brother holds a few shares ('bought too early').

There seem to be a few reasons to buy - net cash position, recent acquisitions to grow top line, aim to improve EBITDA margin from 41% to 45%, gunning for £500m revenue by 2027, low valuation multiples compared to TRI, main market listing on its way, push into AI, modest dividend, share buybacks etc.

But you guys seem to believe this company is being run for insiders/management?

Interesting to read all your thoughts on this subject.

2024 actual - revenue $73m (+13%), EBITDA $3.4m (source: company)

2025 forecasts - revenue $80% (+10%), EBITDA $4.5m (source: CEO post on X)

I believe the story here should be along the following lines - 'Audioboom is a fast-growing & profitable company in a red-hot sector with some good proprietary tech.' This is why I invested.

We seem to tick all of these boxes subject to revenue growing in double-digits for the foreseeable future. Anything less than $80m revenue in 2025 won't excite shareholders/the market. I'd also like to see the EBITDA margin improving from 4.7% (2024) towards double digits. This was achieved in Q4 2024 (though probably the best quarter for the sector in general so probably not sustainable).

$100m+ revenue and $10m+ EBITDA in year 2027? This seems conservative-realistic given our track record (solid but not exponential growth). It should generate a decent valuation for shareholders.

Dividends - almost certainly won't happen as the company invests in growth.

Share buybacks - almost certainly won't happen (ditto).

Thoughts? I've assumed no M&A in the above scenario.

Looking at some recent tweets from the Audioboom CEO. There is mention of 2025 forecast revenue of $80m (+9.6%) and 2025 forecast EBITDA of $4.5m (+32.4%). Both moving in the right direction, but Q4 2024 EBITDA margin was around 10%. Isn't that sustainable? Are these the most recent forecasts and what do we all think of them?

New to this group, hello everyone. A few of you are referring to 'MM games' and 'MM tricks'. Excuse my ignorance but what does this mean? Thanks.

Audiochuck is apparently valued at $250m and reportedly has 2.6b downloads per annum. BOOM has 1.2b downloads per annum, roughly half that of Audiochuck. Are the 2 companies comparable? One is listed, the other one has more scale. How do the business models differ?