Member Info for Kingfisher68

Fascinated to learn what $95 per ton Richard Bay thermal coal means for the financial statements/economics of TGA. Possibly too early to jump back into this company, well-managed and transparent though she seems to be.

This is clearly a well-managed company. CAML is profitable, debt free and provides a 10%+ dividend yield, assuming the final dividend is maintained in the coming months. Year 2023 was relatively poor, but this can be explained away by weak commodity prices and cost inflation in Kazakhstan & North Macedonia (amongst other things).

However, I won't be investing for one fundamental reason - the copper runs out in 2034 (or possibly earlier at current production rates). CAML is crying out for an exploration find or two and/or some M&A activity. Can management deliver on this?

Stronger copper/zinc/lead prices (if they materialise) might provide a short to medium term fix but this doesn't solve the longer term problem (zinc/lead reserves also forecast to run out in 2039).

And I have reservations about the sustainability of dividends in the £0.18-£0.20 per annum range. A dividend cut would drive the share price much lower.

Am I missing something?

Owning GKP stock is like being in purgatory.

When will the Iraq-Turkey pipeline reopen? When will the KRG pay the company what they owe for past deliveries? And what will GKP be like after this palaver is over?

I loved this stock back in the day for her regular dividends, super-charged dividend yields and low valuation multiples. But the reasons for this are now crystal clear - this will always be a hyper high-risk stock for as long as they operate in this geography alone.

Kudos to management for steadying the ship in recent months. Local sales and cost-cutting have kept the team in place and the cash balance at safe levels. Things could have been so much worse without sensible on-the-ground action.

I'm holding GKP until we get some material good news. Then I'll probably reallocate some funds to AET & ENQ.

"Is this a library, is this a library?" is what football fans would probably chant when visiting this moribund share chat.

I've got back into this stock in recent weeks. I like the £0.72 dividend (assuming it's maintained) and the consequent double-digit dividend yield. The LIO share price has declined 75% over 2 years and this seems like overreaction/overselling.

Granted AUMA has declined a tad in recent months but if sentiment turns (has this happened already?) and inflows return then the share price could be in £7-£8 territory rather soon. The forward PE ratio and EV:EBITDA are low compared to the likes of Foresight, though granted there are differences between FSG & LIO.

Intangibles have been written down significantly in recent accounts but this doesn't impact cash. I applaud management for doing this. Best to be honest and realistic re the balance sheet.

Thoughts?

This is one of the core holdings in my portfolio. The Telegraph got the net cash balance wrong a few weeks ago but the last reported net cash number was £132m according to my illegible notes, which represents around £0.47 per share. Not a bad 'safety net' for investors.

£132m net cash balance + strong cashflows + EV:EBITDA not far off 1x + low PE ratio + strong brand name in the UK + some degree of diversity in operations (water, energy, defence, roads, rail, air etc). There are many strong reasons to be buying this share at £0.64 a pop.

My only slight concerns are the low margins (on the £1.4b of revenues) and the incoming Labour government in the UK (which could actually be a positive or a negative for the sector). But if they bodge a large contract we still have the £132m of net cash to handle any shocks, so I sleep soundly with this stock. This said, I'd be happier if they scarified some top line revenue for the sake of healthier EBITDA margins. There must be a few breakeven or loss-making contracts that COST has on its books. Ditch them.

We need some good news to move this stock significantly higher in 2024. Maybe a proper (rather than a nominal) dividend, some share buybacks and (naturally) some cracking half-year results. Let's get the net cash balance to Telegraph levels!

TGA changed my life in 2022. Got in around £1.50-£2.50 (thanks, Baron Investments) and rode the wave. Ever since this time I've enjoyed expensive German lagers in the pubs of Kilburn, North London rather than Carling Black Label. That's how life-changing this stock was. Exited a few months ago.

But it's hard to function without TGA in my life. It's like packing a child off to university. You long for them to return and brighten up your dull existence. Which begs the question - what do we think will happen to coal in general and TGA specifically in 2024?

PE ratio seems to be around the 2x mark and cash balances are a healthy $500m (approximately). Big unknown is the coal price and to a lesser extent the state of the pesky South African railway system.

Thoughts? Packet of pork scratchings or equivalent for the most incisive comment.

I've been resisting this one for months, despite the entreaties of Baron Investments on X (and he makes a lot of good calls). My concerns were: the ludicrous EPL, a British Labour government incoming & relatively high net debt. I decided to give North Sea oil & gas stocks a wide berth. Greta would have been proud.

But this morning's RNS is a game-changer. Bressay & FPSO alone has an implied valuation of £307m based upon this 15% sale. Do the math, as the Americans are prone to say. This is the approximate value of the whole of ENQ.

The £586m net debt pile should be wiped out in around 2 years if oil prices remain at current levels and the company avoids dividends, significant M&A etc. This is a potentially phenomenal deleverage play with the benefits of strong cashflows + bargain basement PE ratio + super-low EV:EBITDA ratio + exposure to other markets (Malaysia) + tax loss shield.

I resisted this stock until approximately 12.29 today and then lumped it on. Sorry Greta. Let's not use the phrase '2024 multi-bagger'. Oops, I just did.

Merry Christmas.

Haven't made up my mind about JUP. There are some reasons to be interested:

1. Good brand name. Potential M&A target presumably.

2. Share price well down from highs.

3. Dividend yield of 9.4% (based upon 2022 actual dividends, including special).

4. PE ratio at reasonable levels, around 10x.

5. Low EV: EBITDA, 1.4x according to my calculations.

6. Strong net cash & investments position (£353m as of June 30, 2023).

7. AUM of £50.8b, of which the institutional element has grown recently.

But my concerns are as follows:

1. Recent AUM outflows (let's see if this trend has reversed in Q4 2023).

2. Consequent decline of top line revenues from 2021 peaks.

3. Net management fee % decline.

4. Compensation ratio up.

5. Potential drop in the dividend.

The challenge for management is to grow AUM + keep the management fee levels up + keep staff costs under control + keep costs under control in general + manage client assets superbly (naturally). Can management do this? Recent share price declines are probably justified as this isn't the company it was in 2019-2021.

Shall I buy at around £0.90?