Member Info for Kingfisher68

Starting to get excited again about this stock after a miserable 2025:

https://x.com/Kingfisher6868/status/2013611409611895085?s=20

Anyone know why?

What caused the share price to tank today? Buying opportunity?

AXL.V seems to be +9.8% in Canada today. Equivalent to £0.152

Has something happened?

The t'interweb gobbled up our post 3 times so here goes again...

EV:EBITDA 0.7x (our calculations)

EV:BOED

The t'interweb gobbled up our post so here goes again...

EV:EBITDA 0.7x (our calculations)

EV:BOED

The t'interweb gobbled up our post so here goes again...

EV:EBITDA 0.7x (our calculations)

EV:BOED

EV:EBITDA 0.7x (our calculations)

EV:BOED

Taken a stake in this company today for the following reasons:

--- Low valuation multiples. EV:EBITDA only 3.2x (source: Yahoo Finance). Single digit PE ratio.

--- Dividend yield of a decent 4.7%. Higher than MP Evans.

--- Strong net cash position ($240m equivalent).

--- Growth story. H1 '25 revenue +30%. H1 net profit +75%.

--- Exposure to Indonesia. We've also taken a stake in MP Evans.

--- Strong free cash flow.

Anyone out there?

Not selling here yet, but please don't pretend that this statement was 'encouraging' or 'excellent' in any way. AXL continues to disappoint. Let's not forget management targets of 10,000 BOED in the foreseeable future. 2025 has been a miserable year.

And why has management reported a net cash balance for November 1, 2024? We are more interested in the net cash balance for November 1, 2025. A typo obviously - don't they spell-check their RNSs? Pedantic perhaps but O&G is all about the little details. If they can't get this right...

Net cash balance of $8m is rather low. Getting a bit tight here.

There's a little bit of 'a watched pot never boils' syndrome here, admittedly, but our patience is wearing thin.

Footnote: we own 0.5% of the company. Our worst call of 2025.

We suspect EV:EBITDA could decline to around 2x when the next numbers are released

Tempted to top up our 0.5% stake in this stock at these prices

New to this one (ChatGPT recommended it to my son and he has some in his ISA!) and would welcome some feedback.

Looks like a cracking long-term hold (obviously dependent upon global palm oil price). Significant net cash balance. Revenue & profitability growth in H1 2025. Higher sales price H1 2025. Valuation multiples that don't trouble (trailing EBITDA 5.4x). 4.4% dividend yield. Investment in new plantations.

I guess you all prefer this one to Anglo-Eastern Plantations (whose cash pile is ridiculous)? Did anyone calculate what EBITDA was for H1 2025 (MPE)? Thanks for any feedback.

Does anyone else own this stock? This share discussion is rather light.

Who else kept the faith here? £1b+ contract win today.

Anyone know the reason why?

We held this share for a while and sold earlier this year (missing the move upwards). Tempted to get back in at today's share price.

Clearly the market doesn't like the flat-lining top line (sales up less than 1% on a constant currency basis 2024-2025). But:

1. Good cash flow generation. Net debt down £26m over the past 12 months, so presumably net debt could be paid down to zero in 4 years if management prioritised this (over dividends, capex, M&A etc).

2. Net debt of £105m isn't ridiculous when adjusted EBITDA is £87m.

3. PE ratio of 5.5x seems like bargain basement.

4. Ditto EV:EBITDA around 3.6x. Not much else in the sector available at these multiples.

5. Pension deficit seems manageable.

6. Clear transformation of this company over the past few years.

7. Possible recommencement of dividends in the near future (though we'd rather net debt was paid down).

8. Contract manufacturing growth strong. Should help admittedly low net profit margin.

We're tempted to buy this one and file it away in the proverbial locked drawer. Bank future modest dividends and watch on as EBITDA nudges up to £100m in 3-5 years and net debt declines steadily. Should be a rerating of multiples at some point and maybe a 2x.

Thoughts? Are we missing something?

Anyone know the reason for the sharp decline in the share price today?

Taken a position here and planning to hold long-term. Great track record of success. NAV significantly above the current share price. Regular dividends.

Today's RNS is very disappointing, period. As shareholders, let's just be honest.

A $141m market cap company doesn't have the luxury of going $30m over-budget on a single drilling campaign. This is 'sack the management team' level incompetence. I speak as a former NED of a listed O&G E&P company.

We all know this is a turnaround company and hopefully we all came here with eyes wide open. Colossal errors have been made in the past and management needs to prove its competence on a daily basis. Today's RNS sets us back a long way.

This is compounded by management trying to gloss over its failings by putting a 'positive spin' on the RNS. But the flow rates are good. But everything was done safely and environmentally. But there are 'learnings'. Lord spare us from the word 'learnings'. Surely nobody is fooled?

We sold a non-core asset in April 2025 for around $38m (from memory). Well done management. This brought down net debt considerably and gave a positive signal to the market. But most of these proceeds have been spunked away in cost overruns within 3 months. Presumably net debt will increase when this number is next announced?

4% of our investment's value has been wiped away in minutes so the market shares our view.

Holding for the time being but goodness knows why.

Obviously disappointing at the top line (revenue) level but gross profit and EBITDA moving in the right direction. Clearly there is enough cash + potential borrowing to keep this business ticking along. No cause to bring out the superlatives and/or the Champagne but the market should be lukewarm/mildly positive. Still think we need some M&A - maybe the former - to kickstart a business with obvious potential.