Member Info for Kingfisher68

Started buying this stock around £1.31 just 5 weeks ago and delighted to be part of Team Serabi. Congratulations to everyone who got in way earlier.

If you believe in 2025 production guidance (44,000oz-47,000oz) and believe that 60,000oz-70,000z is possible within 2 years then please stick around (unless you happen to be bearish on gold prices).

Major capex has been done to take SRB to 60,000oz per annum and AISC should decline materially over the next 2-3 years as production is ramped up.

We prefer this to HOC (a bagger for us in 2024 but the last trading statement disappointed) and possibly even to THX (short life assets, Nigeria risk).

Valuation multiples still low without being 'bargain basement'. Won't sell a bean until the share price beings with a £2.

DYOR & all that

FRP went xD today according to my diary. We can all look forward to a few quid on March 21st. Decent run in recent days but this stock fails to excite to be brutally honest.

There seems to have been a triple whammy hitting AXL this week:

1. DeepSeek AI app shock (there have been many losers globally)

2. Brent drifting down to $76 per barrel

3. President Trump's weekend sanctions threat vs Colombia

For those panicking/seeking some liquidity, a small Colombian oil & gas producer seems like a logical sell. I've taken my position and I'm not selling a bean. Taking a 2-3 year view on this one. My No 1 conviction pick.

Great to be a part of this exclusive shareholder club! VLE.L feels more like private equity to be honest, given the limited stock liquidity.

Is anyone here in touch with company management/Board of Directors? Does anyone attend AGMs? I guess the key questions are:

1. What are the plans regarding the £24m net cash? Does the company still have the appetite/youth/enthusiasm to make further investments? Or is the plan to wind up the company and return funds to shareholders?

2. What are the plans regarding Shire Foods? Possibly a good time to seek a buyer?

This stock is blatantly & significantly undervalued, assuming management/Board are competent/trustworthy, and assuming Shire Foods continues to post good numbers. Looking forward to H2 2024 results.

Buy this stock, put the proverbial share certificate in a drawer, ignore the occasional panic-selling and have some patience. They've just announced 4 years of future revenue (+38% on last announcement) and cash balances remain massive.

His actions this weekend re Colombia don't seem to have moved the needle much. Good to see.

Lacklustre trading statement. Avoiding this one for now given the state of the UK. Becomes cheap before too long though.

- Net debt has barely moved in 3 months

- Significant uptick in costs

- 2025 volumes expected to increase by as little as 7.5%

- No mention of any dividend

- High capex planned for 2025

The market has reacted in a thoroughly logical way this morning

Bought around 0.5% of the company this afternoon. Seems materially undervalued.

Funny how this chat room reads like a JSE vs PTAL debate. Let me put this one to bed. PTAL has delivered shareholders 27% upside in the past fortnight. It has $100m+ net cash, 12%+ dividend yield, $245m EBITDA guidance for 2025, 22,000 boed production guidance for 2025 (+24%), 4 planned development wells (2025), 100m barrels 2P reserves & exploration upside. Management is superb and growth since 2018 has been phenomenal. Sales decline in Q3 when river levels are low & the company engages well with 'the locals'. Management plans for this accordingly.

So why is there a 'JSE vs PTAL' debate? You can own PTAL stock and JSE stock (and ditto gems like AXL & AET but that's another chat room). As an incoming President might say, 'fake debate'.

Anyone arguing that JSE hasn't been a disaster zone in recent years is delusional. Share price down 70% in 5 years. Huge loss of shareholder value. Indebtedness (arguably not at scary levels). Net loss in 2023. Net loss in H1 2024. Montana oil spill etcetera.

So the question is - what are the catalysts for turning this from a shareholder-value-sucking disaster zone into a 'bagger'? Change of strategy? New management team? New Board of Directors? Massive cost-cutting? Removal of most loss-making operations? Higher hydrocarbon prices? Exploration home run? Has this happened yet or is this a future thing? Genuine questions as I'm new to this stock.

There is a lot to like here - geographical spread (Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam) and 'high' production volumes (18,500 boed) in particular. But non-shareholders need a solid reason to invest their hard-earned dosh, such as a stonking set of H2 2024 numbers.

New to this stock today so please help me out.

EBITDA was $25m for 9M 2024 so expectation for full year 2024 around $34m given record Q4. Net cash $16m as of DEC 31. In 2025 volumes should increase by 17% to 44,000oz (bottom of the stated range). Gold price should be higher by (say) $300 per oz throughout the year (though none of us have the proverbial crystal ball). And AISC should reduce by approximately $100 per oz for every 10,000oz additional production until the company reaches the 60,000oz mark.

Based upon this (back of cigarette packet) logic EBITDA for 2025 should be somewhere in the $50m-$60m range. Net cash increases by $20m to $36m according to the CEO (no major capex commitments).

So the MC should be (say): (3x x $55m) + 36 = $201m = $164m = £2.16 per share. Higher if the company meets the upper end of its production forecasts. Higher if the gold price goes north. Higher if the net cash build-up exceeds the CEO's expectations (as per 2024). Does this make sense?

Increasing our stake at these depressed prices. EV:EBITDA probably around 2.6x. Lots of net cash to maintain a chunky dividend yield. One to buy and hold.

What happened to the bloke on here who predicted the share price was going down to 30p?

Taken an opening position at this price. Plan to hold this one for the dividends.

Loading up on COST in the 103-104 range after a few weeks on the sideline

Lots of upside here in the longer term

EV:EBITDA heading towards 1x here. We are buying more at around £0.2395 today and taking a longer-term view. Cash in the bank. Lots of drilling. Aiming for 10,000boed within 3 years. Happy to take a chance on this management team.

We hold a 0.18% stake in THX but refuse to engage in a ramp-fest. Anyone investing in this ultra high-risk stock should be aware of the following 2023 Corruption Perception Indices from Transparency International (out of 180 countries):

Senegal 70th

South Africa 83rd

Ivory Coast 87th

Angola 121st

Mali 136th

Nigeria 145th

Just saying

Just a timely reminder that Angola is ranked 121st in the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2023. Timely because of events elsewhere on the African continent (e.g. THX in recent weeks & RSG this weekend). Most of this chat isn't focused on the fundamental issue of geopolitical risk. Don't bet the house on this one.

(Footnote: we hold 0.22% of this company so don't mistake this for some short-seller waffle!)

Dumped my OSB stock last week for a couple of reasons:

1. Any vaguely negative news (such as regarding arrears) has a tendency to drive this stock down 10%-20%. It's happened a couple of times recently.

2. Nervousness about the first Labour government budget in a fortnight. Tax rises, anti-business measures.

Shame because OSB is a profitable, cheap, well-run business offering a decent dividend yield & engaging in share buybacks. Will reassess this at the start of November. My brother remains a shareholder so hope I've made the wrong call.

Must admit to some profit-taking at this share price