Member Info for kign

I think they've told malcy not to cover them anymore.

rookie please post reply here and ask about Tuna. it's still not too late to release an RNS on the DST as reported by SKK Migas and updated reserves

also I forgot bad management, overpromised and underdelivered. organised a capital markets day to attract investors but tells them we cut our reserves by 40% and we'll waste money pumping co2 into the ground.

made headlines later saying dunnotar will be the well to watch.

Then releases RNS about marginal dunnotar + tolmount delays + further reserves cut. Forgot to release good news about Tuna?

too much hedging:

60+% gas at 46p, it's now 190p
50% oil at $61/bbl, it's now $88/bbl

I think the last post from plebleens might be right. Some bagholders might be forward selling their shares already.

keep it going HC.

Thanks, interesting to see that it's 6km away from nearest platform yet they did not think of suspending the well instead of P&A.

Don't forget Solan development plan was initially hatched by Chrysaor team.

good points HC, one thing I found weird is that the RNS did not mention "marginal" but all other news outlet like EnergyVoice said it is. Insider leak or is the official message sent on Bloomberg terminals different to those for private investors?

This should be investigated as it can amount to insider trading considering we see no effect on share price after RNS release but the drop happened the day before?

Please read the investor presentations: (pg36)
https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/v3xdfsk1/2021-cmd-slides-vfff.pdf

Hedging programme as per RBL requirements:
- Minimum: rolling 50-40% 2 year
- Maximum: rolling 70-60-50-40% 4 year

it's marginal: https://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/7225621/Harbour-Energy-assessing-commerciality-of-marginal-North-Sea-accumulations.html

ok just saw second article I hope it's closer to 50mmboe

only 10mmboe unrisked? J area wells would be hpht and are not cheap to drill!

what kind of **** RNS is this? gas/condensate/oil? net pay?

they already hinted it'll be US GOM. current sellers are Petrobras' stake in MPGOM, selected bundles of fields from Fieldwood/Arena. Talos also doesn't seem too bad but it'll end up with more of the troubled Zama.

isn't there a big risk of further share dilution with a merger, Soder?

at least in some parts of the world, there is still value in o&g:
https://archive.md/YKfiP

meanwhile HBR is around 4.4B USD

obviously written by a paid shill. Had no idea about North sea contributions to the oil and gas industry.

That CMD was a disaster: what I've gained from that session was management is super conservative on reserves/forecasts but super positive on capex/opex/deadlines. Why:

1. Reduction in 2P + 2C reserves (950MMboe) by 44% i.e. loss of 741MMboe (slide29)! 1691MMboe was reported in Aug-21 Investor Presentation. Surely that can't just be Tolmount (-30) + Sea Lion -378) + Tuna farm-down (-25) which only accounts for a total of 433MMboe! Higher oil/gas prices should have extended the COP dates and hence increase reserves instead!

2. Huge increase in OPEX/boe (+25% compare $12/boe in 2020 vs $16/boe in 2021 on slide 24). No good explanation why and slides show that it's not going to come down.

3. Another missed deadline for Tolmount. Not only did they surprise investors with this bad news, they add fuel to fire with a reserves downgrade.

I am also quite wary of their current strategy where it seems like the only way to grow is to acquire more. There are no new big (>200-300MMboe) flagship sanctioned developments (unless you count Zama, Tuna is in contested waters) and they voluntarily gave up Falklands on the cheap.

They've ruled out Norway (probably missed out on Spirit's 60kboepd 1.3B sale), no more in the UK from the sounds of it (why did they not exercise their options on Cairn's share?). CEO also gave away what they are interested in i.e. SE Asia but currently not really close to their infrastructure and they also sound like they are interested in Petrobras' GOM assets (JV with Murphy).

IMHO unless management is all fired and replaced, the outlook is not great! Only a 4-6Tcf Timpan might save them.

fyi pre merger docs estimates 600mmboe! and that's without sea lion or Zama.

they wrote off 100mmboe in reserves! tolmount reserves is just a small portion of it. when questioned by the analysts, management just shrugged and said they are just being conservative.