Member Info for Kat-079

Yes, it's a reduction in the output by 5000koz for the year but this is pretty much made up for by the reduction in AISC of $100. Break even point is average POG remaining below $2650/oz.

Thanks! I did not know that.

Latius75. I've done a quick calc and the amount paid to me looks like about 15% taken off (assuming an exchange rate of £1=$1.31). Yours looks like about 25-26% taken off so definitely on the high side.

Just got my dividend paid in from II

Current estimate for profit in 2024 was set at $65.6m and we've already achieved $39.9m in H1. Assuming a conservative doubling would give us $79.8m for the full year, representing a P/E of about 1.5. That's impressive!

Frankly do your own research. I've already told you that SP is not necessarily a good metric for comparing companies. And that the dramatic change in PAF was linked to other factors in SA not just POG. ATM the moment I'm interested in THX as that's where I have my money invested.

I don't think anyone is trying to prove that there are other gold miners out there as unloved as THX. Just that there are other examples that are still fundamentally undervalued compared to the wider market.

"Kat079, In one of your recent posts, you called facts that anyone can check on Yahoo or Google Finance “lies.” Do you really think people are that clueless and can’t verify information themselves?"

"Are you being intentionally obtuse?". Do not put words in my mouth. I did not say the statistics are lies, merely pointed out that they were a misrepresentation of the true situation.

Adw198: "I think that’s the point - most of us here including me can’t pinpoint the reason(s) THX is undervalued."

There doesn't even have to be a reason. Sometimes the market just plain gets it wrong, particularly in the mining sector. This provides the opportunities to position for big rewards later.

"PAF: 13.28p this time last year to 28.2p today."

Lies, damn lies and statistics. As someone invested in PAF I should point out that the low 13.28p was because the SP had been beaten down significantly due to operational difficulties caused, in part, by load-shedding problems in SA last year. Otherwise the differential would have been much less.

Frankly this sort comparing of companies based on top level metrics is not always helpful. They all have their open particular circumstances and challenges. The game is to find the companies which the market has undervalued. THX fits the bill based on the information based we have available. If people want to wet the bed and worry because they don't believe the SP isn't high enough ATM, then sell up and a buy gold miner where the SP has already risen.

So now the OPEX is for 2022 and 2023 problem because it doesn't match the prediction. That prediction was based on the situation in 2021 before the massive wave of inflation that hit all mining stocks. Give it a rest why don't you.

HarChris. Can't disagree with this. It would of been good if Segun could have given a hint that there was enough variability in the grades to be mined in H2 so the high end can be prioritised for processing (high grades having been depleted from the stockpile during Q2). This would of avoided all the speculation/worry since the RNS about meeting target. I guess we're all going to have to patient until Q3 update now.

Just to be clear as my messages were being truncated.

My only point was that to meet guidance we will need to prioritise higher grades from what is being mined in Q3. Different to H1 where there were some in the stockpile. There is nothing to say it cannot be achieved. It is implicit in RNS reiterating of guidance but not explicitly stated as an expectation to find these higher grades. I have my doubts.

Worse case we stay stuck at current SP for while. At least until we get the clear boost in cash from POG. We should be over 20p even if we miss our production target.

Pointless trying to message any more as I keep losing the last bit.

I give up as my message keeps getting truncated. Bit missing was to say we don't know the distribution of grades in the ore being mined. So although average grade is

Sorry message was chopped...

HarChris. 2000koz per week at 120t/hr processing is representative of grades >3g/t. End of Q2 only medium grade 2g/t left after processing the high grade 4g/t pile (mentioned in Q1 stockpile). So they need higher grades in the mix. Average mine output grades are

HarChris. 2000koz per week at 120t/hr processing is representative of grades >3g/t. End of Q2 only medium grade 2g/t left after processing the high grade 4g/t pile (mentioned in Q1 stockpile). So they need higher grades in the mix. Average mine output grades

HarChris, I'm not saying THX isn't way undervalued. Problem is the market just doesn't like missed production targets. Until that shadow is lifted we can expect a drag on the SP.

I think THX have slipped up this year with setting an overly ambitious production target and the doubling down in recent RNS. Based on what we know from Q1 and Q2 operational updates it looks pretty clear they've been processing all the high grade in the stockpile and now left with only medium grade 2g/t there. To meet production target means they're going to have to get higher grades than that out of the ground. No explicit indication from the company whether they expect this to be the case in H2. Market may therefore be somewhat negative in the short term with the expectation of a revision downwards in 2024 production. Somewhat annoying really as with POG flying the company is very undervalued even it only makes 80koz in 2024.

Not sure what the MMs are playing at today. Over 547k shares traded at 15p or more today vs 4.8k traded at between 14.75-14.95p. Yet somehow the intra day SP jumps down to 14.75p in the last hour or so of trading. Seems a bit strange?