Member Info for Kat-079

Condorquestion - Unless I'm reading it wrong, I couldn't see anything for MTL under Region II. But that was dated to end of June 2025. So maybe it's happened in the last couple of weeks?

CarefreeCarry - Thanks! That's a way of doing it that I hadn't thought of (too lazy).

Following on from Surrey's question about maritime tracking Apps, does anyone know the name of the ship the mill is being transported on? I remember reading something about it, but can't think where that was.

Sakura - Haha, yes they are basically just making random guesses for 2026. In a recent post I listed some of their predictions for 2024 made in 2023. They all missed the rise on POG. So I think we can all take their predictions with a pinch of salt. The purpose for listing was to show a median of about $3700/oz in response to a previous post about what most were predicting.

$4,000 - Goldman Sachs

$4,000 - JP Morgan

$3,700 - Deutsche Bank

$3,500 - UBS

$3,125 - HSBC

$3,600 - Wells Fargo

$2,600 - Citi

$4,581 - CoinPriceForecast

$3,805 - InvestingHaven

Punter is right, Gsent is posting rubbish

Pedro - Thanks. Understand now and thought that might be case. Anyway, good luck with your investments and expect to see you back here soon given the 10+ bag potential for MTL you mentioned back in 2024. Might be very soon given the way the SP has dropped today 😬

@Pedro - I get your style of trading is different. What I don't quite understand is why, when you hold a bag of stocks, you often trade out one gold miner for another gold miner. Seems risky when the sector as a whole is performing well. I mean, why not just trade out a non-gold miner to buy back into THX? Just curious, given it was you who first got my attention with MTL as a potential 10 bagger.

I know you've timed this well but seems a risky strategy given the price rises aren't currently well correlated with POG and have more to do with when Drachs decides to buy (which is hard to predict).

Well I crudely calculated revised 2025 estimates of $290m revenue and $160m earnings based on yesterdays RNS. Seems I was overly conservative.

Consensus online estimates are now available as $281 revenue and $187m earnings giving a P/E of about 2. So basically factors in 2 years LoM for Segilola at current POG and nothing else.

Presumably the market is assuming: no mine extension, no Li deposits, assets in Senegal & Cote d'Ivoire seized after Coup D'Etat. This would seem somewhat pessimistic. Alternatively, a big drop in POG which also seems unlikely given global macro factors.

Based on extrapolating Q2 performance (gold poured of 22,784oz and average POG of $3187), I get a very conservative estimate of about $290m in revenue and earnings of $155m-$160m for 2025. This would put the company on a P/E of less than 2.4. Very undervalued IMO.

Good read 😎 - except for the bit at the end about cashing out your original stake!

I wouldn't put any great store in what the market is pricing Alpha at present. The market is a basket case in terms of it's valuations. Wise P/E is currently about 26. A bid of close to £50 is not unreasonable.

Yes, £40 was my gut reaction when the news first broke in May. I would think Corpay would be happy to pay that given the tremendous long term growth prospects for the company. The fact they're still negotiating after 2 months suggests Tilbrook is holding out for a better deal.

LTH - Agree, I think that's the most likely situation. I'm not considering selling any below 50p and that level will probably keep going up with time.

Drachs might also aiming for 25%. That would effectively provide them with a veto on any hostile TO.

I'm less worried about Drachs going for 30% given how the SP has risen over the last month whilst they only acquired 21m shares. To get another 290m shares would likely send the SP much higher than 25p.

SHG went for 14.85p. The money I transferred into other gold miners in May 2024 has roughly tripled and that was missed out on the boost in POG from Dec 2023 to May 2024. So I would conservatively put SHG at over 50p.

Definitely looks like a tightening of supply is having an impact, possibly due to JM having significantly reduced. SP jumped from 9.2p to 14.9p over the last month when Drachs only increased by 21m shares. As Simms has noted, Drachs would need more than x10 that amount to reach the 30% threshold. That would likely push the SP well above 20p.

PS. Picture is somewhat complicated by the recent dilutions, so not so easy to get a clear picture of the relationship of SP movement and buying by Drachs based on percentage (number of shares would of been a better metric).

Drachs TR1 on holdings in terms of Date, Percentage, approximate SP:

22nd May 17.0% 8.3p

9th June 17.9% 8.8p

10th June 19.7% 9.2p

7th July 20.4% 14.9p

Shows recent big changes in SP whilst a relatively modest increase in holdings. Certainly does suggest that increases now are being driven by other buyers than simply Drachs. Either that or there is a shortage of stock compared to a few months ago.

Agree that dividends can negatively effect SP increase by taking money out of the company. However, in some cases they can boost the SP as it attracts buyers. Saw it this with THX when they dropped a big maiden dividend recently. Also, SLP a few years back when they upped their dividend. And there won't be a Withholding tax applied like some other gold miners.

Really best not to engage with these idiots. Their purpose is to derail constructive discussion and clog up the BB with discussing FUD. Those getting paid for it are rewarded based on the number of posts they can get on their threads and how many times they are mentioned by name. Just ignore them.