Member Info for Kat-079

Berenberg has raised PAF price target to 71p from 55p.

For those who don't feel like signing up to access the broker note, some kind person has posted the info on ADVFN.

18p target is based on 1x NAV for Runruno and La India. Note includes a speculative assessment of Dupax production if exploration is successful. For the gold doré and copper/zinc concentrate it estimates a gold equivalent production of 230koz/year and an NPV10 of US$2bn, i.e. about x4 the current MCAP.

My only question to the people selling: Where on earth are you putting your money that you think will give a better return over the next 18 months?

Legit question, as I have some spare to cash to invest.

Shameful 😡

Citigroup prediction for POG in 2024:

"Average: $2,050 per troy ounce

High: $2,250

Low: $1,850

Citigroup shares a similar sentiment, although their predictions are slightly less bullish than Goldman Sachs. They expect gold prices to remain elevated throughout 2024, but acknowledge the possibility of a correction if the US Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish monetary policy"

Some other 2024 predictions: UBS $1800-$2200, Goldman Sachs $1900-2300, Bank of America $1750-2150

Most likely on behalf of Citigroup Inc. Either they're short or want to cause a dip and go long. These predictions by so called experts last about as long as a chocolate tea pot in hell. A year or so back JP Morgan were predicting short supply on Copper and within a a couple on months it transpired there was a Copper surplus and the price plunged. None of the big financial institutions were predicting golds rise from the start of 2024 so why should be think they're going to get it right now?

Thanks for putting my mind at rest everyone. Good hear my fears are very unlikely.

Well I didn't mean to worry everyone about a TO lower than the SP. Af SHG it was initially 10% higher followed by another 10% when the Founder and BoD realised they might not get it through.

However, I'm hoping for significantly more than 20%. Some on here have mentioned 30p; I think that's just a starting point given DBs vision for the future and £1-2b market cap.

Does anyone think all this stake building by the big holders is a bit worrying? Maybe a prelude to taking the company private on the cheap sooner rather than later. Hope it's not another SHG all over again with a cheeky offer before La India factors into the SP.

Always seems like PAF overreacts to any drop in gold which is frustrating. This time the SP started dropping rapidly 10-20mins before gold. Very strange. Someone knew what was about to happen...

Yes, Pedro has form in this type of trading. Jumped from SRB to MTL and now onto THX. Seems a risky approach when you could hold all three? However, for myself, I won't complain as he got me the heads up on MTL which is now my biggest investment (Thanks Pedro!).

A total of 9 RNS for ALPH today re activity on 2nd June, but only the first one reported by the London SE site ATM.

Bid and Ask the same at 36.1p on ii for 25k shares. Only second time I've seen this. Not sure what it means... Any ideas?

I make it about £71.52 for 12500 shares assuming a WHT of 15% is applied.

You're right, it's Canadian WHT of 15%!

Ii have deposited the THX dividend into my ISA account.

Looks like a tax of 15% applied. A bit more than I was expecting as I thought withholding tax for Nigeria was 10%.

06:49 M1Rob's forecast of "top in"

06:50 Low point for gold on day followed by steady rise to $3240 at close

Comedy gold.

Add to that Thor up over 7% on TSX to about 32.3p equivalent. Expect a rapid rise tomorrow morning with day traders jumping back in before the dividend lands.

Anyone know why gold has bounced back so strongly today?

Also, I don't really think of gold being in a "bubble" or comparable to tulip mania. Rather the rise is an inevitable consequence of all the QE that has being going on since 2008. Generally, the more you print FIAT currency the more gold should go up. What's surprising is that it's taken this long for an adjustment to occur.

@Major

For 2024 we had an average price for gold sold of $2288/oz which is not far off your stress test of $2300/oz. We achieved earnings of $91m and currently have a MCAP of just over $303m given a 35p SP. So in your scenario we could expect a P/E of around 3.3 which still is still pretty impressive. I don't know of many other gold miners that would be in that position apart from maybe MTL which I think is the other mining stock you may be alluding to. If you know of others please let me know!

However, on the flip side, if average POG were to be about $3000/oz the earnings would likely be above $150m and represents a P/E of 2.