Member Info for Kat-079

If it walks like a duck... 🦆

Sheeesh, you asked this same question a month ago. Quality of deramping has really gone downhill these days.

IDK, perhaps rebalancing being done by the Gold Mining ETF? However, the share was acting strange even on Friday when gold was being pumped. PAF is pretty leaky with news.

Only thing to do in these situations is leave it in the bottom drawer until sanity is resumed. Guaranteed to rocket back up if you panic and sell out. Forward P/E is still only about 6-8.

Agentmario - The straight line decline today looks characteristic of a short position taken up by some Hedge Fund. Hope I'm wrong. Should know for sure in a day or two.

Simms - I'm hoping for 30p by Christmas. I still have my charity bet with CareFreeCarry 😬

Major - I hope you're right about the peace deal. Alas, I fear we're locked into groundhog day for a few more months with another rug pull this W/E. Nothing I'm reading suggests any agreement.

Interesting spot Harry and AuInspired, you've piqued my interest too.

FWIW, Solibon sounds like it would be more likely to be associated with a company subsidiary in Latin America as opposed to Asia. And the use of Metals, as opposed to Gold, suggests a more diversified polymetal scope (e.g. Cu-Au or Ag-Au).

Given the April timing, my money would be on use for nearby expansion projects in Nic. Probably not directly related to La India as that's already convered by the Condor brand. Alternatively, a mining project in a different Latin Anerican country... 🤔

.... 15% tax WHT on the dividend taken by ii, so that's something I suppose 🤔

Noel, I just checked and ii have now deposited the dividend. Good luck with the AAU investment 😎

Hi Noel. If it's going to happen today it's usually around 11-12 o'clock. But yeah, they used to be better than this at getting the dividend out a few years back.

Noel - Yes, I'm with ii. Likewise, no dividend yet. Guess we'll have to wait a bit longer 🙄

Well that's certainly been the pattern. Bullish statements from Trump Friday whilst the US market is open, then rug pull after it closes. Red day Monday then TACO Tuesday. Rince and repeat ad infinitum for your cronies on the inside.

Hi Jaczar - You're very welcome 🙏 It was a good find and surprised it didn't get more feedback. Keep digging!⁶

I had a quick check on the relative hardness of RCM ore compared to La India. The former is very hard quartz and sulfide-rich, metamorphic rock. This compares with medium hardness epithermal, volcanic-hosted gold-silver in Nicaragua.

In practise, this should mean the processing challenges are reduced. So, reduced energy use, equipment wear, downtime.

Good find, though I doubt DB was buying a pig at a poke. The design of the La India plant clearly shows they're addresing the failure drivers that caused problems for Rock Creek:

Electrical mismatch - Redesigned power system (6.6kV)

Grinding instability - Standardised SAG + ball mill drives

Poor plant integration - Full re-engineered flowsheet

Rushed commissioning - Stockpiled ore + staged startup

Equipment mismatch - Selective reuse + replacement of unsuitable parts

Seems like DB and his team were well aware of all the problems during their DD. They worked out why it failed and realised it could be fixed.

Also, there is there is the advantage of not having to work in the freezing Alaska climate or having expensive resupply issues due to remoteness. Rock-Creek also had to deal with harder than expected ore. I'm not sure how the rock at La India compares, but we'd benefit if it's softer material.

CFC - 2.4p would indeed be the amount of applying 20% to £120m instead of 33%. But I think you have omitted taxes from your calculation of FCF?

If you also assume 30% CIT on profit and 3% ad valorem on revenue this drops it down to something closer to 1.5p. Plus I suppose we should also assume 15% WHT on any dividend distribution as Nic unlikely to have an agreement with UK to avoid this.

You're quite right that high distributions of 40% of FCF are not unreasonable for established gold miners. However, this level does typically include a component of buy-back rather than being all dividend. For a growth company like MTL I would think 20-30% is more likely. To be conservative i went low end due to the jurisdiction risk which might mean the company holds back more FCF.

CFC - Err, taxes? Plus, I would be a bit more conservative by assuming 20% at most for proportion allocated to dividend. So more like 1.5p maximum?

Certainly true thaf Chinese-linked firms have have been benefiting massively from being granted new concessions without transparent bidding in recent years.

However, I can't find evidence of your claim that "UK/USA assets are being nationalised and replaced by Chinese actors". Is thus just FUD or have you got some evidence?

Ha ha, good spot Surrey, I'd missed that. Definitely a where's Wally? vibe that. At least he was smiling.

Looked more like he'd been kidnapped to me. Probably just the jet-leg though.