Member Info for Kat-079

Hi Major - Central bank purchases of gold measured in tonnes dropped by 21% in 2025 compared to 2024. But average PoG, increased, so there was no overall drop in the buying measured in $ terms, about $95bn in both years. Looks like they are DCAing with the buying.

Hi Major - Are you sure non G7 central banks have stopped buying gold?

A quick search online seems to indicate buying is continuing globally, particularly among non G7 countries. Notably Poland, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Brazil and others.

LMA - That is interesting 🤔 I guess we'll find out at 11pm on Sunday evening which way the wind blows....

LMA - Gold is $4891 ATM. I'd be surprised if we don't see it above $5k by early Monday morning when the Asian markets open.

I know KWN has to be treated with extreme caution. However, Alastair Macleod does usually provide some useful insight into short term movements in gold:

https://kingworldnews.com/weekly-wrap-with-alasdair-macleod-1-31-2026/

Anyone know why PoG just shot up by $50 to $5143 per oz over the last 25mins?

Nearly all the gold miners are being smashed back down today. Big players have decided TA trumps any sort of analysis based on fundamentals, profit and POG. Madness, but here we are.

... the only thing I could find was getting permits from the Nic government for the Tailings Storage Facility. Designs for the TSF have been submitted for final permits and are expected imminently. The mining licence is already in place.

According to the information provided on the MTL site:

"La India is fully permitted and construction ready."

I couldn't find anything that suggests they're waiting for additional permitting. All the key permits were already granted to Condor Gold.

Good thing about being a LTH is not having to worry about all this in-out, in-out, shake it all about nonsense. Good luck to those who can make it work for them, but I won't be following some rando on the Internet and selling 80%.

Loudspeaker provides a useful list of taxes we can expect on Senegal production. Hopefully, nobody is surprised, given this is all in the public domain and should be priced in. The big interest for me will be LOM, yearly production, and type of ore being processed. Even with all the taxes, 10 years production from ore oxides with >100koz output running in parallel with Segilola would be transformational.

Kitco video with a couple of blokes talking about gold. Some interesting bits at about 5:00 and 6:23 talking about fractional/digital gold that could have impact on the growing the gold market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-dKf-FM6V0&t=26s

Taking a risk if you sell on exDividend day in such a dynamic POG environment. Last time we didn't drop for a few days. Plus we've got the PFS due on Monday which could provide a big tailwind to the SP 😎

As I understand it, Trump now withdrawn the Feb 1st tariffs. I guess we should have all expected TACO.

I don't see a TO by a major player either. The blueprint for Shanta Gold was a lowball offer to take the company private led by one of the institutional investors. What the other big share holders on top of the derisory offer was never disclosed.

Very unlikely scenario but not impossible. Let's not kid ourselves and think that PIs are regarded as anything other than a necessary evil by the big players. We are only required as an early cheap source of finance.

Squeaky - I love your optimism, I really do. However, like Simms, those of us who were invested in Shanta Gold have reason to worry about the company being undervalued. All, the big share holders and CEO there were happy to back the TO even though it was only a 10% premium to the SP and gold was rapidly rising. Who knows what actual deals were being done behind closed doors...

... So, MTL earnings could be increased by over 150% if Dupax follows Hannam's modelling.

Back in July soneone posted the following research from Hannam:

"Dupax has the potential to develop into significant polymetallic mine. The Dupax deposit is interpreted as a medium sized VMS. Previous sampling and mapping returned high gold, copper, and zinc grades, with small scale miners active at the deposit in the past... We have modelled a 2.5Mt/year open pit operation at a strip ratio of 3:1 with ore trucked up to the plant at Runruno, a distance of 20km. The plant would need to be modified to include a flotation circuit to produce copper and zinc concentrates as well as the gold doré. We assume initial capex, including plant modifications, haul road, pre stripping, and upgrading the tailings storage facility should cost US$30m with a further US$30m one year pre-production. On a gold equivalent basis the project would produce 230koz at a cash cost of US$750/oz and an AISC of US$980/oz with a mine life of 10 years. Using these inputs, we calculate an NPV10 of US$2bn if the project were to be developed on this basis"

Alternatively, when the full licence is approved, AI suggests a "Moderate Scenario" in which the MCAP increases by 30-60%. This would be equivalent to a SP of £4.30 -£5.30. Plus there would be scope for the company to expand to 100koz per year production.

If you like zero risk, and are only interested in worst-csse scenarios, I would recommend not investing in junior gold mining companies on the AIM. Personally, I regard the risk/reward ratio acceptable for my portfolio.

Just to put into context re our resident clown...

Projected earnings/profit for 2026 based on current POG are more than ×4.5 our MCAP when he started warning not to invest in SRB due to the risks.

Hi RB, well you sound pretty bullish to me! A £500m MCAP is a SP of £6.60. My current target was only about £5.