Member Info for Kat-079

Hi Sakura, yes I too am bit hazy when the time is delayed on big trades.

I sort of trust the brokers price and time generally. Sometimes you can determine if its a buy or sell if the value is extreme. Or by the trades at similar times that were not delayed. But what the actual time of the delayed deal corresponds to is not clear to me. Is it the time it the trade was finally filled 🤷‍♂️? Expert comments would be welcome!!

Hoping we'll get an RNS on the Q3 financial results tomorrow. Given we already know the production is excellent, am expecting a big jump up in the SP.

Assumes of course that POG doesn't take a dive. Hopefully less likely though with the Yanks out for Thanksgiving 🙏

Hi Sakura. Understand. I was basing the sell/buy on the time of the trade and observing the true bid/ask being offered by the brokers online in real-tlme as opposed to the price range noted on LSE.

So the fact that there were some large volumes of actuals sells that were being logged without much balance in the buys indicated there would buys to be reported. Either that or the MM were accumulating.

Some big chunky 500k+ sells through this afternoon without dprressing the SP. Presumably some big buys will appear after hours...

A lot of assumptions in there, not least that gold will be $3000 per oz from 2026 onwards. At least the Major should be happy with that 🙂

Also, the text mentions average EPS of 2.8p for next 5 years. But in the table that's just from Runruno in 2026. By 2028-2029 his EPS from $3000 POG is 5.29p for a P/E of 2.15.

Alot of assumptions in there, not least that gold will be $3000 per oz from 2026 onwards. At least the Major should be happy with that 🙂

Also, the text mentions average EPS of 2.8p for next 5. But in the table that's just from Runruno in 2026. By 2028-2029 his EPS is 5.29p for a P/E of 2.15.

Jammin - Playing Devil's advocate here, but still might only affect MTL if that's the only big share holding the seller had.

Any thoughts on whether this could be Budget related? For example, someone worried about CGT changes or disposing of UK assets to avoid an exit tax.

Seems unlikely given the volume, but this fire sale seems as if there's a rush to meet a deadline. Guess we'll know tomorrow morning if the selling stops...

Someone just below the 3% threshold could dispose of about 90m shares without reporting.

10.63p to sell but 10.6p to buy.... what's that about?

DM - Exactly. I'm expecting EOY P/E of about 4.3 given current SP and POG holding at $4k.

Assuming higher POG in 2026, better grades, and increased production, the P/E will be approaching 2 in a years time. Hopefully this won't be the case as the SP will have increased!

Just bought a couple of 100k lumps. This selling though is stll relentless 😔 Surely got to end sometime soon?

DM - We have similar estimates for net profilt if that's for Q4. My full year value is calculated from earnings of $18.5m to $22.2m for Q4. For Q3 I'm using about $16.2m.

Darien - I think even better than $48m earnings this year. As posted a week or two ago, I got a full year earnings range of $53.6m to $57.3m. Given current POG we should meet or exceed top end.

By my reckoning, if we sell the 3koz of unsold gold in the next quarter and POG is $4k, we should get earnings of about $72.5m for Q4.

This would mean total earnings of $201.6m, for 2025, i.e. about +$3m above current analyst estimates.

I believe AISC is based on gold sold as opposed to gold poured. So yeah, holding back 3koz meant AISc increased accordingly. Opposite to Q2 where we sold more than poured and had AISC under $800 per oz.

So expecting a bumper Q4 now by releasing the unsold gold at $500 higher POG.

Major - Dammit, I thought the market was supposed to be forward looking. It certainly is for tech and any stocks with AI in the name.

I'm actually quite okay with the SP. It's a bit like having access to a bank offering 100% interest over the next year. Sure we'll be looking back at end of 2026 wondering why we didn't put more in.

Surry - it's negative news again, but, as prevoously, not the fault of the company. Maybe not a buying opportunity if you already have 20m shares, but might be considered one for us small investors.

Sometimes a negative is also a buying opportunity.

CitizenBlue - Haha, yes, always happens when the actual buy price offered is below the mid point of the Bid and Ask. LSE is just guessing and can get it wrong.