Member Info for Kat-079

.... I guess you mean lower earnings for 2026 by assuming POG averages at $4k as opposed to the current value?

Hi RB - Good to know that there's at least someone else out there. Just wondering why you think I'm being generous? You mean the £125k earnings? I think that's just maths though given POG, production and taxes. Unless you mean something else?

.. And for 2026, assuming current POG and the projected increase in production to 55koz, the full year earnings would be about $125m. Which would represent a forward P/E of less than 3 at todays SP 😎

So with tidays production figures, I get a rough estimate for the Q4 earnings (profit after tax) of about $19m.

This would mean a full year profit of $54m which is about 10% higher than current broker estimates of $49m.

Hi Hounddog - I assumed a low AISC of $900 per oz for Q4 as we sold about 2koz of gold held over from Q3. This should drive the AISC down (like it did in Q2 where AISC was $912). On reflection I think a higher AISC of $950 AISC is probably more realistic. I'd be happy with anything below $1k 😎

... in which case P/E of around 3.2 for end 2025.

Hi Lucain - I think you're being a bit pessimistic for the earnings in Q4. With AISC around $900 and over 25koz sold that would mean EBITA of around $85m. Given we've still got the tax holiday, I would expect over $75m earnings for Q4 and over $205m for the full year.

Hi DM - Yes quire agree re PAF. I was more aiming at Darien and his tongue-in-cheek comparison of SRB with Newmont. Nevertheless, with a forward P/E of less than ×5 for 2026 I can certainly see £5 on the cards next year, particularly if we get a maiden dividend.

It's even better than that, SRB P/E for 2025 will be less than 6.

Hi Pj - Well a 50% increase in dividend only represent only about 17% of earnings for 2025. Will be even less as a percentage if POG holds above $4k for 2026. So already plenty left to fund more drilling from what they were anticipating back in April 🙂

Pj70 - THX currently paying out $24m in dividends and set this value when POG was $3100. Now expected to achieve earnings of over $200m in 2025 with increased POG. They can certainly afford a 50% increase in the dividend unless their expectations about CAPEX has substantially increased since April.

Hard to believe we dropped back below 70p to buy again today, especially given all the news in thd pipeline. I had trimmed 10% recently, but like a few on here, I have bought at these bargin prices and now back to my 200k holding.

Will be great if Segun announces an uplift to the dividend in the imminent Q4 production update. Last time that put a rocket under the share price fuelling a rise from 20p to over 36p. Don't think it's unrealistic to hope for given the $1300 rise in POG since the dividend was initiated. Though I guess we may have to wait for the full year results in April 🤔

.... He talks about Cu from about 14:00.

My apologies if this has already been posted... Link to Oak Bloke live stream from 2 days ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE_6tqZcsp8

TL;DR Very bullish. He averaged up on Monday at about 14p. Talks over his November article. Very excited about the prospect of high Cu grades in Dupax/Abra.

Equinox Gold Corp. up 3.6% already on the TSX. Guess the Canadians not too worried about their mining assets in Nicaragua.

People on here need to get a grip. Nicaragua is absolutely NOT like Venezuela.

No big natural resources. No drug trade for Trump to use as an excuse. No internal opposition to take over if the President is removed.

Almost certainly would require serious boots on the ground to achieve rpermanent regime change. And all for little or no eccentric benefit. There is no credible scenario this is going to happen.

Interesting. I've read that Autumn 2028 would be the most likely [earliest] date in order to coincide with disruption associated with US elections. However, maybe an earlier schedule now given recent events? 🤷‍♀️

Pj70 - Blackstone's Mankayan Cu/Au project about 200km from Abra. Potential JV partner?

TL;DR If Nicaragua were to start playing games with the Ad Valorem tax, it would have a much less significant impact on a company profits now than it did in the past. With POG >> ASIC

A 3% Ad Valorem tax would have comparable impact on profilts as increasing corporation tax by about 2% and increasing AISC by 3%.

"on EBITA" not "onENITA"