Member Info for Kalan

Good luck Roxi. Im out for now. The turn around has been pushed back a few momths IMO. Will take another look in my January review of my finances.

Ive sold another investment and so have cash to lower my JLP average. On fundamentals it looks good. Picking up Bluebellys point. If we secure another site with share issuance it will now be at 5p. That site owner may then be willing to sell at say 4p. A further 20% drop which will need a 25% rise to get us back to where we are now.

Issuing shares to fund further sites will continue to destroy the share price. The current seller looks like they will sell at 5p and not lower. If its from recent issuance, the nominal value was higher when they were issued. Continuing this strategy will mean the share price tends towards zero without ever reaching zero. A change of tack on securing further feed is needed. Should I gamble that the board know this or should I wait for developments and be prepared to pay more. Expansion through profits and or debt financing is the way forward IMO.

Excellent Edzi, smart and funny. Love a bit of sarcasm.

On my phone whilst balancing one of the grandkids on my knee and sharing breakfast. Tend to type like I'mNorman Collier in tgese circumstances. Lol.

Supply and demand for shares gives the share value Happy. For weeks de.and did not match supply. That appears to be changing as the seller will accept 5p and a buyer plus retail buyers are willing to buy at 5p. So we ppear to have stability. The upsides based on fundamentals are oft repeated hear and many think it a screaming buy and are buying.

The downside is more shares possibly coming to the market. As an existing shareholder I want the company to throw off cash and use yhis to exoand the copper business as yhey are doing with chrome. The company has a different focus which is securing feed ( I know the two things are aligned) and recent experince shiws that their prefferred mthod of purchase was issuing more shares which suppresses the share price.

It's a screaming buy but is there any rush? That's a matter of judgement for the individual.

Sitting on the fence myself awaiting mor information or share price action to support opening a trading pot for the next series of rises and falls. GLA.

Looks like there may be an orderly transfer of shares around 5p taking place? If so it could help put the bottom in. Needs a bit more time to see how trading progresses I think.

Copper above $9200, good news.

Platinum above $960, improvement.

Bluebelly - we had a triple bottom in JLP at 5p earlier in the year which presaged the rise to 8.8p.

The latest fall is separate but that 5p triple bottom can be seen as support for where we are now, chartists might say we were re-testing the bottom.

No big sells so far today?

Good points Edzi - looks like the seller is just getting whatever they can - kept on selling and continuing now at 4.9p. When they have done this is going to whoosh. Seriously looking at my cash position - got some on deposit for a car purchase. Tempted to chuck it all in here and watch it double in no time. Feeling for that bottom - some have decided to take the plunge at these levels. Going to take my time but a chance like this has not been around since April. Wouldn't mind repeating what happened after that with JLP. Was up 106% when I sold at 8.8p. Silly burger put it back in way too early, but new cash would give the chance of a repeat. If I lose it all I can always catch the bus.

Woe woe and thrice woe. The prologe....

Copper tanked close to 20%. Back up above $9100 now. Platinum flirted with sub $900, now above $950. Chrome holding steady. Providing income. Over expenditure on Roan due to time overun is behind us. Sable expenditure nearing an end we assume. Chrome expansion has just x months to run, freeing up cash for securing more copper feed. Seller still selling but buyers coming in at these bargain levels. On the charts we have hit the 5.1p prediction from the death cross following on from a golden cross. Inducates we are at the bottom now.

Woke up optimistic this morning. Don't know why. Maybe it's because the countries JLP are in invested in don't have a government like ours which talks about growth and then sets out an agenda to destroy investment. Maybe it's the alugnment of the celestial bodies in Capricorn. Who knows but I'm feeling JLPpositive this morning.

( Not the poster of that name obvs, I'm not feeling him, that would be just plain wrong. Without permission at any rate).

Half year results next Tuesday, hopefully come with an update on progress post reporting date.

2 things - first I agree with Sumoskier "Edzi, I think the real issue is that JLP need to prove they are actually generating cash. Having issued shares twice in the last year it is obvious they have none. Based on this who would buy in to a low Copper forecast until it actually arrives? Chances are more Copper purchased will match more shares issued. The SP will eventually move up but only on self generated cash!"

Second - on the charts discussion. JLP had a golden cross earlier this year - by the time it occurred (a buying signal) the share had already made two thirds of the gain it was going to make to get to 8.8p i.e. it's a two thirds backwards indicator and a one third forward indicator.

Now we have a death cross and using the figures above but in reverse by the time the sp hits 5.1p we should have a situation where the death cross was two thirds backward looking and one third forward looking.

Based on that flimsy charting buy at 5.1p. Based on Sumoskiers post we need time to show JLP is cash positive in a flowing in flowing out kind of way, including capex (trying not to say cash flow as it sparks a technical and irrelevant discussion) so we should wait.

A compromise strategy would be to invest now on a weekly basis to average in. For folks like EDZI who will not pour in more money then, go for a walk, take up swimming, enjoy yourself and look back in in another month to 6 weeks.

P.S no sign of a turn around in the sp on the charts but it's definitely oversold and stochastics say it's primed for a rise or at least to flatten out, but there doesn't seem to be any signs of imminent take off - average in if buying on the fundamentals I think.

3 big companies have rowed back on fully electric in the past week Shuvlin. People are only buying them because they can't get petrol and diesel cars due to cut backs in manufacture. I noticed some electric cars being discounted by up to £6,000 to try and shift them, meanwhile second hand combustion enginned cars are maintaining value better than ever.

Good points Seisnav and LUFC - if I had £50,000 free to invest now I think I could do far worse than buy £5000 worth of JLP per week over the next 10 weeks to average in. ISAman looks to be in a good position IMO.

Everything is doom and gloom - the brave acquire at times like this - As Templeton would say - be greedy when others are fearful. If only I'd not got back in too early - Doh!

Good post Bigel - we need an alternative to electric cars as they are simply not fit for purpose.

Firstly they cost far more than diesel or petrol and depreciate much faster - the losses on buying a new one and selling 3 years later are horrendous.

Secondly they aren't environmentally friendly when you take into account all of the environmental damage - from resources needed and pollution caused, much more than petrol, to emissions at source of power production (80% of world power consumption is by fossil fuels, worldwide this is what drives electric cars), on top of that particulate emissions from electric cars are greater than petrol due to their weight with extra break dust and tyre degradation.

They also damage road infrastructure more due to their weight.

Most importantly they claim mileage ranges which aren't great and then don't hit them. e.g. a car claiming 300 miles on one charge needs to be fully charged and run to flat. No-one is going to let the charge fall below 10% and anyone with sense will only charge up to 80% to preserve battery longevity and save on charges and charging time, as the last 20% takes significantly longer to charge than the first 20% and costs much more. So cars will be run on 70% of full charge giving our car only 210 miles range in Summer when brand new. In winter expect 80% of this so 168 miles and after 8 years life the battery will only be 70% to 80% functioning. Our 300 mile range car will be doing 126 miles using 70% charge range in winter after 8 years.

Who is going to buy that 8 year old car? It needs a new battery which will cost more than the value of the car.

I'm about to buy a 2 year old petrol car that will get me to anywhere in Britain on one fill up. I'll keep it for 10 years at a depreciation of just over £100 per month instead of an electric car which depreciates at 5 or 6 times that rate and will need charging up twice on the journey to get me to St Ives or Inverness from the middle of the country.

The only advantage electric cars have is that they don't kick out bad gasses, at the point of use, they do this in poor countries (minerals) and and at power stations.

Hybrids, don't get me started, the worst of both worlds, a petrol car with all the disadvantages of electric manufacture and particulate emissions. A typical industry response to car companies meeting buyers needs to feel good about themselves whilst cow towing to the appalling leadership of politicians.

Ahh that's better - needed a good rant - hydrogen, all the advantages of the electric car without many of the disadvantages. Needs politicians with backbones though and there are very few of them. Who voted for this latest bunch of morons/

The only place you can be like that and keep your job is government, especially local.

Good to see a consensus that I'm wrong again - I have renewed hope that I know what I'm doing lol.

Hi Dru - I didn't account for sellers. That's the market for you- it does what it does and over inflates the price relative to valuation or under shoots the valuation. It's just coincidence that my valuation and the market price are the same at this time. I haven't got a crystal ball and I haven't got enough information to value this accurately, none of us have. I think the market has it about right at the moment but that will quickly change if JLP delivers. Optimistic but cautious as to the short term path. Securing feed is JLP's top priority right now - we are all hoping that it can be done through cash - let's see.

I am fully invested Mikie- bought back in above 7p and leaving it to run. My posts never have anything to do with whether I'm invested or not - copper has fallen back again - not good. We'll see what the profits are on chrome and what they cover soon enough. I hope they exceed expenditure on Thutse and the company overheads. I hope they didn't spend all the money raised to advance waste rock projects on finishing off Roan. Meanwhile I'm taking a cautious view. My current feeling is the sp is about right for where we KNOW we are at the moment. If we get better news then I'll change my mind and so will the market. Wishes and guesses aren't going to change things. Positive cash flow covering future purchases and investment will. I really hope that happens as I am fully invested and under water on this latest of my gambles on JLP. GLA.

Hi Edzi good to hear from you. I like your consistency. When I posted my 6.7p by year end prediction you replied that one broker or another valued HLP at 11p then.

I am basing my calculation purely on clear profit. PGMs are producing very little of that and chrome profits are being used up to finance expansion (all very good for asset value which is an alternative way to value the company) and will then be used to finance works copper developments. So I'm just looking at how much cash the copper production can throw off. There are many factors to be taken into account - placings, options, warrants, profit sharing, net asset values, debt current and future, cash flow, copper acquisitions through finance, shares, co ownership etc. there's actual and potential production numbers. I am trained in mineral valuation through my time as a surveyor, studying minerals valuation as one of my modules in my Chartered Surveyor finals. What I learnt was that valuations are complex and very much smoke and mirrors. A good accountant (or is it a bad one) can portray what they like in a valuation, so I keep it simple, it's AIM so focus on cash flow and hard cash.

PGM and chrome money is being eaten up (the placing money has likely also been eaten up - let's not go there again), it's all about copper in come and expenditure. $6000 break even is what I'm using (for good or bad), 5.5p is what I came up with and that's the price today, just glad it hasn't dropped along with copper in the last two days. p.s. I thought about using a p.e. ratio of 8 to be on the safe side but thought 10 better reflected the potential and assets, you could argue for 12 which would give a higher valuation.

Bottom end production guidance for copper and current margin with a PE of 10 gives a share price of 5.5p.

Moving into next year with an increased margin of per Goldman Sachs prediction and top end of guidance gives 8.5p per share based on copper.

ASSuming no value for pgm's and none for chrome at this time as it is self financing expansion.

I would say the market has a reasonable balance if one assumes that future growth prospects are balanced out with dilution and uncertainties. A mid way point between my very very rough valuations is 7p, so 6.7p year end looks like a decent bet for year end. Also assuming Leon's claim that guidance will rise with securing of feed then a share price rise beyond 8.5p during 2025 is feasible.

So sticking with my March prediction of 6.7p by year end and 9.5p next Autumn. 17p at full take up of Roan and Sable capacity with copper at around 9800, timeline uncertain but months rather than years according to Leon (Is 2 years, 2 years or 24 months?).