RE: Copper30 May 2024 08:59
In the charting world, the sp at 7.8p sell has hit the bottom of the tramlines. The top is currently at 9.5p. It doesn't have to stay in the tramlines but it takes good or bad news to move outside them normally. Other indicators say the sp is about to turn over today and tomorrow.
In the real world, the sp rocketed to 8.8p on the back of copper soaring from a rough average of $9800 to $10,850. Based on $9800 I estimated 17p without IRH deal. The extra $1000 margin takes this to over 20p and the sp motored, also anticipation of Roan start up at end of May. PGM's were also buoyant as well as markets generally.
PGM's came off recent highs, stock markets cooled and crucially copper fell quickly back down to $10300 ish. All this damaged sentiment and we start to doubt other things such as Roan and no news on IRH progress.
Where are we now. Markets have corrected somewhat but not started a bounce back yet. PGM's mulling around. Copper bottomed (get it) and has recovered to $10,400 to $10,500.
Compared to where we were last time sp was below 8p, markets are still higher, pgm's are still higher and Copper is significantly higher. We are also closer to Roan being up and running (fingers crossed).It takes a day or two for folks to balance the high rise, relatively small rise, we are in a better position scenario.
The charts represent the wishes, fears and dreams of all involved and so once again I've relied on them to help find the bottom - I'm going to be wrong some time, could it be this time - cliff hanger.