Member Info for Kalan

Bottom end production guidance for copper and current margin with a PE of 10 gives a share price of 5.5p.

Moving into next year with an increased margin of per Goldman Sachs prediction and top end of guidance gives 8.5p per share based on copper.

ASSuming no value for pgm's and none for chrome at this time as it is self financing expansion.

I would say the market has a reasonable balance if one assumes that future growth prospects are balanced out with dilution and uncertainties. A mid way point between my very very rough valuations is 7p, so 6.7p year end looks like a decent bet for year end. Also assuming Leon's claim that guidance will rise with securing of feed then a share price rise beyond 8.5p during 2025 is feasible.

So sticking with my March prediction of 6.7p by year end and 9.5p next Autumn. 17p at full take up of Roan and Sable capacity with copper at around 9800, timeline uncertain but months rather than years according to Leon (Is 2 years, 2 years or 24 months?).

Goldman Sachs say 9100 per tonne rest of this year and 9600 average for 2025 ( of course they will be wrong, they always are). Margin for Jlp 2900 this year and 3400 next year?

from march 4th "agree 100% with your view on the waste rock project jonah. jlp's valuation is based on current operations. pgm tiny value, chrome decent chunk of the value and roan another part of the value. this part, roan, is undervalued if it is fully operational by the end of april. that's the tug of war in the sp in recent days.

the waste rock project stands alone and is not reflected in the sp imo. modules will do the work there - totally separate from what we have now - 100% de-risked by the deal which is yet to be signed. any profit from this adds to the sp of jlp imo. at the moment we have no signatures and we don't know where the product from the modules ends up. it's pie in the sky at the moment. the sp will react to it as it becomes more established. 6.7p by year end and 9.5p in 18 months imo."

i think my 6.7p prediction at year end was the lowest at the time (apart from bushy with his 3.8p), it's looking quite optimistic now. i'm sticking to it and the 9.5p by september 2025. the highest prediction back then was 45p i think but maybe not by year end. going to do a back of a *** packet current value calculation to see where we are and where copper and production might take us short and medium term. hope everyone's well.

I've read hundreds of your posts Roxi. This last one is your best. I think you're right. On balance it feels right.

All good - steady rise in the sp on the cards IMO. Which is better than surge and flop.

In the past JLP have given reports and then commented on the positive developments since the reporting period end. The longer they push the report on, the more info they can share on Roan ramp up. Just my opinion Bluebelly.

That's right Shuvlin - pgm's at break even and chrome paying the overheads. It's not an optimistic prediction.

Thanks Gray - only a temporary interlude - a little distraction - come on copper price!

Copper at or near to nameplate I have 12.5p valuation (down from 17p previously due to copper price). No valuation for IRH deal included and no allowance for dilution.

Potential to double in next twelve months and even higher IF copper rises and gives us a bigger margin back.

Electrical components specifically mentioned. Tick. ( o/tThanks for your good wishes Grey1).

Here it is Northern:

"Project Roan – the large plant capable of feeding Jubilee’s Sable cathode – concentrate plant has been bult and is now being commissioned with full utilisation expected in July 2024. Although delayed this is a perfect test bed for the roll out of similar plants as part of the LG project with Abu Dhabi based IRH – Jubilee’s partner in this project. Jubilee also announces the tying up of two more copper open pit projects to supply copper ore for upgrade with a total of $3.6m being paid by way of the issue of 36.2m Jubilee shares. Project “M” is set to produce 25ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q3 CY24) – Jubilee will own 95%. Project “G” will produce 20ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q4 CY24) – Jubilee will own 51%. Both these new projects, together with existing ore sources, should see Jubilee produce up to 25kt/yr of copper in cathode/concentrate. 16kt through Sable (mostly cathode) with the rest, at the moment, for sale within Zambia. This will make Jubilee a flexible producer of scale.

WHI View: We applaud Jubilee’s effort in securing additional feed in Zambia. With its own production capacity due to be filled and some material available for sale, presumably in Zambia, it creates even more impetus, in our opinion, for Jubilee to sort out additional processing facilities so it can secure the value upgrade to copper for itself. We will put all our forecasts under review pending this data as we assess its implications. "

Leon said the priority short term is to secure copper feed in Zambia (presumably before some other chancers muscle in) - if that's the priority then they must be making plans for where all of this material is going to be processed and there will be a cost - if it involves IRH then they obviously can't say anything. If it's in the planning stage then it's market sensitive and needs to be tied down so, again they can't say anything.

Keeping things simple - as things stand chrome/pgms profit pay company overheads only (pessimistic view).

Sable brings in $80m per annum starting in a few months. Roan sell into market and pile low grade product on the floor, brings in say $20m per annum (pessimistic view).

Profit in about 4 months time is $100m per annum, at a p/e of 8, gives us $800m valuation. 3.8x current market cap giving a share price of 27p.

Allowing for dilution (warrants, options, further resource purchases in chrome and copper) and timeline slippages denting share price rises then we should be at 15p to 20p by January IMO. Going to do my final top up and look the other way for a while - going on holiday next week and thereafter it's time for my wife's cancer treatment which we have just found out may be more intensive than we thought - this time going to let the shares sit in our accounts as the sp is not elevated but depressed. Enjoy the sun whilst it shines everyone, all will be revealed in the fullness of time.

Listened in this morning.

Leon saying fully operational at target output for Roan by end of July (precisely 3 months late as he invited them to come and see it fully operational at the end of April).

Updated video promised to shareholders at end of July showing it running.

Sable to take Roan produce in the short term but the two newly purchased projects will fill Sable on their own 16.000 tonnes @$5000 /tonne profit (minimum) = $80 million profit per annum at Sable starting in the next 6 months.

Roan 9,000 tonnes per annum after upgrade in next few weeks - twin feed - low grade and higher grade. Lower grade must go to Sable for further upgrading, higher grade can go to Sable or be sold directly into the market.

QUESTION - what do we do with Roan output if Sable is already at full capacity???

ANSWER - further benificiation plant to be built at Roan but not planned to be soon - do we need to be careful in saying that we produce 25,000 tonnes, are we double counting Sable capacity for the lower value concentrate and new purchases.??? I don't know the answer - I think Edzi was asking something similar about Roan output figures being confusing.

The future - presenter was talking about 50,000 tonnes and said he knew Leon couldn't talk about this/ mention this??

After Roan, Sable and Thutse upgrades and expansions (all in the next 6 to 8 months) the top priority will be securing waste rock assets which should be financed by IRH - Roan beneficiation and further chrome opportunities will come after that.

For the next two years re-investing profits into copper as it's return on capital far outweighs return on cash (stated by Leon). In a couple of years time will discuss whether to return cash to shareholders.

Throughout the interview I got the opinion Leon was trying to address specific investor concerns voiced on this board and elsewhere and that, as edzi has repeatedly said, there are other things going on in the background. My take is that project Roan is vital to us small shareholders in terms of the short term value of our shares but the importance of Roan in the overall company size and strategy when we look back in time two years from now will be small and dwarfed by what has happened in the meantime. GLA.

20th July last year

From memory. Last yearc30th July. Previous year 10th August. Gardening so just a quick check in .

Technically it's dilution.

However, the real life situation is that JLP have processing capacity and some others had processable material.

The material is now owned by JLP and as a result we share a small part of the company with the people who owned that material. Their interest has been merged with ours. They gave up all of their material for a small share of what we own, We gave up a small share of what we own to get our hands on all of what they owned. Win, win is it not. Whether they decide they want to hold onto the shares for an even better return in the future or sell now below the nominal price put on the shares of 7.8p is up to them and in that way they are just the same as us. If they are long term holders then everyone is happy.

The charts and indicators say the share is oversold (RSI, Short and long stochastics, envelope). The 200 day moving average has acted as strong support and the share price bounced of it today (chicken and egg). The 20 day moving average looked like it was going to cross the 50 day moving average in a few days, today's action has changed that picture and it's not looking likely/ imminent (it would have been negative). The key indicator IMO at the moment is MacD which has been consistently pointing to a steady downtrend. Now the lines have narrowed and it looks like they may cross and the downtrend will be at an end, but this one day does not confirm this yet but it looks more likely that JLP share price is turning the corner. The first paragraph above is likely the determinant in the real world of trading, I'll let you know when I think we have confirmation in the charts Bluebelly.

In summary - today's rns looks like it may have arrested the fall and if the new shares are kept by the new shareholders we could well see a rise from here.

Yeah you didn't need any charts to see any of that did you.

Yes they could do with and actual belt on that conveyor mimbrit (takes me back to riding the conveyor belts out of the mines in my younger days - a few lost legs and fingers etc due to holes in the belting - still better than walking was always the mantra).

I think you have it spot on Edzi re the rate of share price . When the sp was in the rising channel, Roan commissioned update would have propelled the sp along in the channel, we would have been at 10.5p by now IMO. The loss of trust due to delay will lead to a slower rate of revaluation IMO - more waiting for the good news now than buying in anticipation of good news. Much more in line with the professional's approach. The benefit is that it is better for long term holders as the volatility will be less. 17p this time next year IMO, barring catastrophe.

Fair enogh uktruman. It did sound like a robot had written it. Lol. Nothing wrong with positivity as long ascwe retain a balanced view. The more I reread the rns the more I like it which is the opposite of how I normally feel.

Strange thecway things turn out. Was feeling down this morning. Underwater on Jse and Jlp on this times investing and little sign of positivity. Then both come out with update on the same day lifting both sps. Looking forward to red turning blue on both shares.

Excellent news. 6 months to cash positive, fingers crossed.

Sorgy uktruman but the investors here have been around far to long for that kind of positive spinning of the situation.

The biggest 2 positives for me are

A) the electrics are actually procured and on site.

B) iI was concerned at a placing as Leon specifically did not rule it out in one interview and with Roan delayed I was worried cash was stretched despite the placing at the begining of the year. The dilution is above current sp and the copper owners have taken shsres instead of cash. A placing to get the cash would have dropped the sp another 10%. This way I see a 10% rise as a good possibility with more to come on ramp up.