Member Info for Kalan

Agree Marineclark - I think it's stabilised but my long long history of JLP shows that the sp almost always drops to the issue price of new shares. It's a small risk but it's there all the same. I think it's just short of 8 million shares.

My mum is 82 and voted Labour all her life. Last week she said we need to get Starmer out. Meanwhile I think there's still quite a bit of buying going off in JLP. I could buy at 4.914p earlier , so I think many of the reported sells today are probably buys. About 8.20 it was 4.914 buy and 4.901 sell with my broker.

JPmorgan China growth and income.

Chrome should get support now. My chinese fund is up 11% this morning and up about 27% over the past week. Iron ore surged too.

Platinum over 1000 and copper over 10000.

Still sitting here with cash to buy more JLP shares because the sellung is a constant we cant overcome and I want to see the financials and Id like to see how the next feed purchases are going to be paid for. Warrants at just above 4p in November. I cant see the sp going below that. Very disapointing that we are missing out on improving fundamentals. I have fair value at above 7p now with potential a couple of p below 20p.

Hi Edzi -I didn't say chrome is not relevant to JLP.

I said "chrome is not of much relevance to the share price at the current time" which is a completely different thing.

The sellers lowest acceptable offer is the most important thing right now. Then the funding of more copper feed, then the warrants in November, then pgm prices (highest degree of correlation to sp), then copper prices , then chrome prices and volumes. It matters but it is having no effect on the sp at this time.

Spot on Heroic.

OK seis - here we go again.

PGM's fluctuating between 700 and 1100. Mostly between 900 and 1000. At those prices JLP have reduced production by using lower grade input. There are profits that help with company overheads.

Chrome is making very good profits at the current time and it is being used to expand chrome - I'm with heroic, I wish they were using the money to pay for more copper sites to feed the processors. By the time the extra chrome capacity stops eating up chrome profits we may have a lower chrome price.

If either platinum breaks out above 1100 or chrome capacity comes onstream with still elevated chrome prices I don't use them to indicate JLP share value. They are funding overheads and expansion but not feeding into the bottom line in any meaningful way (cue arguments).

So based on copper which is why we are all here, at current guidance the share is worth more but until the seller(s) goes away and the funding of feedstock is in place the market is not going to agree with my valuations.

We need a lot of buyers to soak up the ongoing relentless selling and we may be about to add more sellers through a placing or issuing shares in lieu of cash.

Another headwind, should the selling stop, is the 7,818,750 warrants at 4.13p exercisable by 19th November 2024.

So - no, chrome is not of much relevance to the share price at the current time.

There he is nasty gotreal - I own half a million shares I want it to go up, b ut have a balanced view whether I hold or not. If it was left to you we would only have positive posts and everyone would be like you and held from 22p down to 4.6p, back up to 8.8p and back down to 5p.

By my calculations you could be up 680% by now (assuming a n initial average of 5p) if you'd bought and sold at the right times. You need Buttermilk's guidance - no doubt.

I've posted it many times seis - I thought it would just be boring and lead to arguments.

Meanwhile on results (I have long said the placing for IRH deal was just cover for them running out of cash), the first thing I will be looking at is cash at hand and in bank.

12 months ago it was 12.9 million.

They raised 0.3 million through warrants and options.

They raised 13 million through placing.

So a total of 26.2 million potentially in cash. *

We know they spent 8 million in the first half up to December (cash 4.9 million at interims).

The waste rock project payments and surveying 3.8 million was planned.

So a total of 11.8 million from cash.

Leaving cash at 14.4 in cash.

Of course there's general working capital (spending not paid for by income) and helping out with copper spending on Roan and Sable. Be interesting to see what's left I'm guessing about 4 or 5 million, we will see. My gut instinct is that even if the situation is better than I think and they had 20 million in cash they would still issue shares to pay for the two new projects, it was in Colin Bird's DNA and it's in JLP's.

That said, it's looking cheap isn't it!!

Updated my valuation of JLP.

Low end of production guidance 7p.

Top end of production guidance 10.9p.

Full production at Roan and Sable (end of 2025?) 17p.

Can buy at 5p and have liberated cash to do so - when to buy?

When the seller(s) has done? When the placing / share dilution for the two imminent mine projects is done? After the next round of warrants are processed? After the upcoming results which I don't believe will be pretty?

or after the horse has bolted? or is that fomo?

Once the water has been through the hydro plant it isn't used up - it's still there to be used for drinking, irrigation etc.

I agree Nelso - not sold a single share and won't be (doesn't mean it can't fall from here though).

Gotreal, Buttermilk's role is to balance you - he knocks JLP all of the time, no matter what the evidence and gets silly when the share is moving against his mantra. You constantly hype the share and get nasty when the share moves against your mantra.

I treat you both your opinions with equal weight.

Nice to see that most on the board now believe that we small investors don't move the share price and that infighting is a waste of time. good to see folks sharing their knowledge and opinions. We are trying to beat the market, not each other. the big boys have nearly all the advantages, we have just two - in depth research and knowledge that most do not have the time or inclination to dig out and the help of each other to warn against investing at the wrong time and encourage each other when we believe the time is right. You have a part to play Buttermilk - we need sceptics but can do without the septics.

Fidelity Emerging Europe Middle East and Africa Fund top 10 holdings didn't include JLP. So the maximum % of the fund that could have been in JLP is 2.73% of 178 million, divide that by 0.06 as an average JLP price over the past couple of months and you get 81 million shares.

So on that calculation the most JLP shares they could be selling is 81 million but is almost certainly less. Much of the selling seems to have been organised transfer through the brokers but maybe that's dried up a bit over recent days.

Ive been out of the loop for a while so sorry if yhis is old news but does anyone know which Fidelity sustainable fund hs been selling?

Cheers chester

Is chrome still making enough to pay for the 2 ongoing modules Charthopper or anyone.

Agree with all that Marineclark. Hopefully this is the bottom. My take is that in the short term, if buyers arrive which they have today, then the rate of selling will pick up to match it until the seller(s) have done.

If we issue shares at the current price of 5p to the two extra site owners nearing agreement, then they may be willing to sell at a 20% to 30% discount to the current price. that is what appears to have happened with the last acquisition, that could send the sp down to 4p or a bit lower. Hopefully not but I see little chance of uplift with the seller around and some chance of a lower sp. Today's rns also makes me wary with the timing of it.

Let's hope the finances give us a lovely surprise, the next two deals are done with cash or debt and the seller reaches their target point. These three things will see the sp rise. Holding onto my cash for more clarity. Your purchase will be a wise move over the next 12 months whatever happens inbetween times. Good luck.

We know all that Gotreal but some did say it was all done and dusted on this site months ago. Agree Frogkid for LTH its a very positive update. For buyers best to be aware of the short term pitfalls.

Other points to consider:

1. Sable will take another 10 months!

2. sable will cost nearly $10 million in capital.

3. The IRH deal was not signed off as some claimed months ago.

4. Why have JLP put out this bullish update right now? a) because Roan reached nameplate b) to cover poor financials next week c) to prop up the share price prior to buying more pits with more shares.

5. No chrome update.

6. Clear waters on IRH deal starting to look muddy.

I have more JLP shares than I've ever held before, I want to buy more, waiting to see what happens next because as Marineclark says at 5p this is a great long term investment but in the short term I think there is much to doubt and at least one seller in the market. GLA.

Above inflation pay rises to the unions that agreed to stay quiet and keep a low profile in the run up to the election- those rises are inflationary. Tax rises are not dependent on need - this is Labour - they are dependent on their wants.

They want to appear green so they set up Great British energy which will cost billions and produce zero energy just to give Ed thicko Milliband something to be in charge of. They will Nationalise the railways, more dosh needed for that and to pay the shortfall in running it into the future. They are not going to throw money at the NHS - yes they will - this winter, first sign of a bit of cold going round they will cave in. Every other topic you choose they are going to spend more - Housing targets, quangos galore, more people working for the Government, producing nothing. How are they going to pay for it - so far we have the cap on sick people using their own assets for care scrapped and winter fuel allowance all but scrapped. yes they will take more tax from better off people, the rich can hide it, but people already on 40% tax, teachers, train drivers, doctors etc will demand higher pay to offset the tax rises. Interest rates will be higher than they need be as a result and investment will be down due to rises in capital gains tax which means lower tax receipts and the debt spiral ensues. Current Government debt at just under 100% of GDP - predicted to rise to 275% of GDP.

They think going green will grow the economy but all it will do is raise fuel prices in the home and fill the coffers of all those companies that tap into the Government Incentives.

I joined the Labour party when I was 18, left when I found out what they were really like. Brace yourselves, they are coming for your money and then they will waste it - always have, always will.

Other opinions exist.