Member Info for Kalan

A blatant liar who most accurately predicted the current sp. His performance on another share is of no interest to me - I'm don't need to prove I'm better than him - my self esteem is in tact.

Blatant rampers were miles off - were they telling the truth - maybe the truth as they saw it. But they were ALL wrong.

Some people have the knack of this game and some don't - I get it right a lot of the time and then sometimes spectacularly wrong. What I do know is not to listen to others too much - making up my own mind has always been more successful. The posts on bbs give an insight into the sentiment of the most optimistic. That sentiment is rock bottom right now - so buy. Also look at the charts - no indication yet, except oversold - so hold. Production and margin are vital in the long run but we know little of the actuals there when we look 6 months forward - awaiting events, hold and add if you are savvy?

It's easy to run out of patience when the share price drops from 8.9p down to 4.7p Dorfan. Some are selling up at this level. The thing is that most on here didn't sell at 8.8p so it doesn't make any sense to sell at 4.6p. The fundamentals of mineral selling prices have deteriorated but the prospects of increased production are much nearer to being realised. Sit on your hands for 12 months, either production or mineral prices will be up markedly by then and quite possibly both.

The list of things that can boost the share price is quite long. The list of things that could make the share price fall further is very small. But lets not get carried away - buy steadily and hold onto what you've got is my thinking.

End of year predictions - I'm in second place entering the last 3 weeks of the year.

I predicted 6.7p (now 4.7p) - over optimistic by 2p - a rare thing an optimistic de-ramper. Chuckle.

In pole position to win the none existent prize is (drum roll) - Bushy with a prediction of 3.2p, only 1.5p off the mark. Still there's 3 weeks to go and I'm sure gotreal et al are rooting for me to have been right.

Listen to the positive posters and the negative posters and give them equal weight, no matter how much you dislike what they are saying or how badly they are acting. Sentiment makes the market.

Copper production should be increasing now and set to accelerate throughout 2025.

China just anounced the stimulous necessary to kick startvthe economy, underpin the housing market and the stockmarkets. We should see a rise in copper starting today, with steady increases as China delivers on the stimulus (some risk there).

I have JLP value by October next year at 8p to 11p at current copper price and expected production. But 15p to 18p with expected copper production and a copper price North of $9800.

Jlp needs rising production and rising copper price - that moved a whole lot closer this morning.

Time below 5p is limited IMO, oportunity window is going to close. GLA.

Adding my good wishes to you both. Not suffered any important medical problems myself but 4 years ago my blood pressure was high and I was overweight and drinking too much. I found that investing and posting, especially arguing, spiked my blood pressure up. I left it alone for 3 years post pandemic. Came back in the early part of this year and now no longer get into arguments and even chuckle at some of the posts of others. Post occasionally Frogkid and if you post an opinion that might cause a reaction, just don't look at the replies, post, get it off your chest, and leave it there, just go for a walk and breathe some fresh air.

In the last 18 months, 3 of my 4 children have split up with their partners, my dad has passed away as well as 5 of my aunties and uncles and my wife has been in treatment for cancer, she's through it now thank goodness. There's more to life than JLP - let it be a distraction not a burden - now where's that f....ing copper and what the f...k is Trump playing at with the war on China trade. It makes my blood boil. Time for a gentle walk. Good luck to you both.

Its overdone. Hold and add if youre brave. Im feeling a little brave.

Why are ee heading back down?

On one hand we had the institutional sellers and then the release of warrants. From my memory the share price of JLP has always dropped to the warrant issue price. Seems straight forward and short term.

However, Trump has indicated that he is going to apply is favourite word "tariffs" to china, Canada, Mexico and possibly the EU. That is forced to damage world trade and world growth. The effect on commodities is faily obvious. Pgms, copper and chrome all down. How lonf will this last?

Maybe the fall is justified on rapidly changing fundamentals.

Jlp pgm production is reasonably fixed. A smaller margin damages bottom line.

Chrome production is being increased but falling margin cn more than offset this and damage bottom line.

Copper production set to rise significantly but price and more so margin is significantly down. Copper should affect the bottom line positively and the sp likewise.

Pgms and chrome may still cover overheads and valuation relies on copper.

To get a significant rise we need 3 steps.

1. Warrants clear - short term buying opportunity.

2. Production increases reported in line or above expectations - 3 to 12 months - medium term buying opportunity.

3. Copper prices find a catalyst to rise - time frame unknownand largely down to Trump actions rather than words. If he uses tariff threats to extract concessions from the threatened nations, then we may see a copper rebound as the reallity may not be as bad as his rhetoric indicates.

Copper could rebound in other scenarios. E.g. Chinese companies stopped importing USA scrap copper in November because they anticipate Trumps 60% tariff on China goods will ensure Chinese retaliation on USA imports. Goods ordered in November will arrive in China after Trump becones President. China will source copper cheaper elsewhere and force up the price through increased demand. Just a theory.

What we know now is the warrants are dragging the price evn lower ( nearly done) and the metal prices have fallen ( nearly done?). Production is planned to increase and we await proof.

The facts say the price fall is warranted ( see wghat I did there), the hopes and anticipations say it'

Spot on Summit. I've lost count of the times I've said JLP is cheap under 5p - been saying it for about 20 years, and it usually is. But despite all the things you say it keeps returning there.

As for timing the top and bottom, it is difficult but can be done. earlier this year I called it 8 times in a row and was up 206% whilst the sp had risen less than 100%.

Alas, I called the 9th time wrong and got back in too soon and then took my eye off the ball as circumstances in the real world took priority. It can be done but you need to be focussed. Going to try it again with part of my investment, but probably just let the majority ride until JLP fulfils it's potential.

We need chrome to stay strong in terms of price and production whilst controlling costs. We need pgm's to get up off the recent floor and warrant the take up with Northam. We need copper to rise in price, production capability to be enhanced through further refinement and the addition of further copper resources without further dilution.

We are very needy aren't we. One day Rodders.

Those who bought at 4.6p and sold at 5.7p and are waiting to re-enter (perhaps at 4.7p or 4.8p), congratulations on your strategy. Wish I had been in a position to do it, at least with part of my allocation. You are the smart ones, feeling a bit dumb, sitting here as a LTH, doing the old routine of buying in too early, averaging down (leaving nothing to trade with) and waiting for the share to rise on fundamentals, knowing that the warrants were due and the sp would fall as it always does with JLP.

As a LTH I can now feel righteous and dumb at the same time. Yes you clever STHs, we now who you are and I for one am jealous of your superior investment decisions.

Good points Northern - feedback below indicates copper target cost is $5500. The economies of scale obviously help towards this and secure energy supply.

The margin surely varies with the type of output we send to market.

The variables are quite wide as is the variability of feed quality - 3% plus in quantity is being mooted. Very difficult to tie down all the variables and produce an accurate estimate of future profits. Fingers crossed the stars align and we get a repeat of the 2p to 22p run, 4.5p to 45p anyone - perhaps more than a tad optimistic but the potential is there.

Thanks Billyboy - so options are just under 4% of the current shares in issue. This form of dilution may not be a bad thing as they will be in the hands of those associated with the company and provide incentive, also less likely to be sold immediately back into the market on exercise, unlike warrants. The number of them needs to be in our thinking though.

Slater sold some share which brought down his % holding, the % was greater than the sale due to more shares being issued as Frogkid and others said.

On production - yes it is increased compared to when the share price hit 8.9p. On the flip side, chrome, pgm's and copper are all at lower prices. Copper significantly so. From memory copper was about $10,800 and it is now just above $9000. That's $1800 reduction in margin. If margin was say $4500 then, it will be $2800 now (very simplistic I know). About a 38% reduction in margin. We would need a 61% increase in copper production to justify 8.9p just based on the copper. It will come and hopefully be accompanied with a rise in metal prices as Trump doesn't deliver on all his threats.

Optimistic of a win win, as Colin Bird would say, getting all the ducks in a row, but as Marine Clark says - we need to be patient for about 3 months. Waiting for a game changing rns is a waste of your life an energy. Sign up for email alerts (if you haven't already)and go and enjoy yourselves.

Thanks dbh. I have a full list of warrants which I shared on here more than once. Always got my eye on JLP warrants. P.s. The selling down had zero to do with the warrants.

In order that I can improve my valuation methods could you share with us all how many options are still live and at what price so I can include them in my valuation like you must have done. Thank you in anticipation.

Warrants exercised at4p and below as we have discussed more than once previously. As expected.

I like the improved communication this time, pointing out the outstanding warrants rather than letting us fish around for the info. Probsbly because the warrant exercise prices will be above current price. Sugar coating the dilution pill. I'd have done that.

I didn't say it would be 8.9p next October.

I did say it would be at 6.7p by end of2024, the second lowest estimate of anyone predicting on here. It looks like I may have been way too optimistic, but theres time yet.

There - other one pulled.

I think it would be up around 6p if it weren't for the metals markdown following Trump's election. A rebound in metals prices ( there has been a small one) could see us float up to the resistance around 5.9p IMO. News of improved production or some new positive news alingside a rise in metal prices may well be needed to break above 6p in thw current way of things.

Nexr October rising metal prices and rising production could well see us above the 8.9p recent high, again IMO.

My valuation is based on $9800 a tonne. It was $8800 when I posted. Pgms at platinum $1000 and it was $910. 10% fall in selling price equates to a 25% to 50% fall in profit margin, depending on which figures you use. Fairly crushy maybe, rather than out and out crushed?? Anyway its nearly your tea time. Still having it on a tray brought up to your attic bedroom?

Excellent post marineclark. Agree absolutely. The charts are also inline with the reality in my humble opinion. A sideways move is highly likely given that we expect a large increase in output at the same time that the price of pgms and copper has been crushed (put crushed in deliberately, otherwise the resident JLP experts ignore what's happening) by the expected Trump v China trade war. Reduced my expected valuation of JLP from 17p to 12p by next October based on the new lower values of copper and pgm's. Was expecting a big uptick in JLP price in coming days but the copper price and general sentiment in metals will hold back the enthusiasm of new investors. Hope it lasts until April when I will have £20,000 good money to throw after the bad in a new ISA allocation. JLPs day is coming again when higher production and higher metal prices align - more patience needed. God bless America (what a backwards country).

Looks poised for a short term move upwards.

Should prove to be a good buy Genesis3.

Trading returning to normal at last. Us and downs - definitely a time to add on the dips. Some are already trading - selling at 5.7p and trying to buy back at 5.2p/5.3p. It's a tradeable margin.

Typical pullback after a quick rise and supported by the fundamentals which have deteriorated in the past 2 to 3 days. Copper down and pgms in the region of 5 to 7 %. (no-one posts when they fall, only when they rise).

presenting another buying opportunity thanks to Trump / Tariffs / China / metal prices link.

JLP have been chucking pgm's on the floor for quite a while. Capacity is constrained and the extra is destined for Northam, but not at the current prices as the margins don't work. It's cash waiting to be realised at a future date. The pile will obviously continue to grow in the meantime.

The power outages in Zambia made mainstream news last night. Some factual errors in the presentation. But warning of the impact of being solely reliable on renewables.

5.8. My finhers are too fat for this phone.