Cutting the carp5 Jun 2025 10:32
The share price DOES reflect copper. The sale of Chrome and platinum assets is worth about 2.1p per share. Copper business is therefore valued at 2p per share currently.
O.K valuations - sell up and cash in, wind up the company - quick calculation (others will do better/criticise) - $90 million South Africa + $150 million.OB1, gives $240 or £177 million, equating to about 5.8p per share. What about all the other assets, assuming they pay off debts and solicitors and bankers.
Bottom line the share is worth at least 5.8p and others can produce more accurate and probably higher figures. So - not selling.
Back of an envelope valuation.
No change for South Africa business - I assumed it would pay the overheads, capital requirements etc and it still will albeit for a 3 year period. assuming the copper business is mature and self financing by then and the $90 million has been invested/ wasted, the profit and valuation are based on copper production. No finesse here - it's back of an envelope at 6,500 tonnes of copper at previously reported margins with copper at $6,000 per tonne and a price earnings ratio of 8 (no enterprise value i.e. pessimistic), the share is worth 3.1p per share (in my very humble opinion). Currently the copper price is at 6680 so add 0.1p for every $80, gives approximately 4p per share. So on this rank amateurish basis the market believes we are producing or are going to soon produce at a rate of 6,500 tonnes per annum. actually we are probably going to see about half that for this year, so 2p per share but based on a fire sale of assets, see above, that share price would be nonsense, so the market is vexed and seasoned students of all things JLP are lost and confused.
By my methodology at 14,000 tonnes per annum at the current share price would give a sp of 8.8p.
Take away scenarios: 1. JLP blow the $90 million and have to sell off what's left at $150 or 3.6p per share (worst case)
2. JLP wind up now 5.8p per share.
3. JLP reach 14,000 tonnes 18 months from now at $10,000 at tonne gives us 10p a share.
Hope that helps Couerdelion.
(For clarity I do have qualifications in mineral valuation through the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, but with so little transparency, what's the point of even attempting any of that technical stuff - those who have been labouring under the assumption that JLP can be valued on current share issuance and potential income from chrome, pgms and copper now know they have been sadly mistaken and share price valuations in excess of 20p look fantastic (in the true sense of the word fantastic i.e unbelievable)).
GLA - holding for 9,5p.