Great sense of realism on this bb - really good bounce on AIM - but we know the worst of the virus is to come and what that will do to sentiment - still nice to have a blue day for the traders and bottom hunters - uplifting for the spirits.
59 and been looking after a 4 year old and a 7 year old. K'nackered by tea time. 71 with a 10 year old - that will keep you young - watch those knees though.
Making a note of your target prices TC - all info gratefully received. GLA and don't forget to take those profits.
Well done on the National express Bluebelly. Being nimble and not holding for long would be my approach. I though 4500 at the outset when I sold up at 7000 - this was about 40%. USA S and P still clinging to the 29% short shock scenario but the message is starting to sink in over there - you could sense it - next leg down imminent - when S and P gets below 29% fall at close then we will be looking at historic falls for economic downturns which are typically 49% to 57% on the FTSE - so would agree with TC - 4500 is a staging post that could hold if we had some sudden positive news on the virus - a game changer. The backstop at 3500 is sensible IMO. (Note 3300 to 3900 are aprox (49% to 57%).
Wanted to buy WTI oil for a 10% up trade but didn't get the opportunity - happy with the BOO trade - waiting for the next 9% in a day to buy the bounce - BOO is as good as any but the chart will have to be right.
Agree with everything you posted The BullCase - I think SLP is probably one of the best defensive stocks around - if they shut up shop for a year I don't think the cash spend would be huge and they could probably do so without damaging operations. They can sit on their cash pile and come back as pgm prices make it worthwhile. In the short term it is a profit maker now in any case. the only thing they would need to be wary of is any contractual obligations and of course moral obligations to the workforce.
Still - despite all of that I agree that the sp will head lower - not going to lose your shirt on this but maybe it will be more of a muscle shirt - no arms and a few of the buttons missing.
No new cases in China - billions of people and a rampant virus - yet no-one caught it yesterday. You would need to have your entire brain removed to believe that.
Lockdown - there will be no lockdown in Britain - transport will run - we will all be able to go to the shop.
WRES will not be a 20 bagger from here - the race is on - can they get production x APT price to = break even - if not then they need to ask banks for an interest holiday. If production cannot be got above the break even threshold then it is shut up shop time.
Just a few thoughts - reality does not exist in social media - everyone makes up a scenario that suits themselves and tries to pedal it as facts - well almost everyone.
Here's my made up scenario - the banks say have an interest holiday WRES - say 2 years. The production reaches 200T / month. APT prices stay where they have been for the past couple of weeks. Our buyers continue to buy all the metal we produce.
With all that the price would go to .25p easily.
It would be nice to think we could lock down for a month and get rid of it Elenor but the reality is it would just come back unless we stop all movement of people in or out of the country after the 4 week lockdown until we can all be inoculated which could be 2 years. Imunity is building up - probably 50% to 70% of us will get it before we can be inoculated - the government is doing their best to makes sure that the most vulnerable are the least number to be infected whilst we build up the immunity in the healthy population to protect the vulnerable.
if we could just lock down for a month and it would go away - we would have done it by now. look after you and yours and try to enjoy the downtime at least in part if you can.
Thanks for the BOO suggestion Topcatz (I have just checked the price) - was thinking of BP or Shell and when you said BOO the charts just looked spot on. Up 15% when the share dropped 16% on the day was a bit of luck - you posting just when you did. Still got my shares as I was playing football with a 4 year old and tiggy off the ground with a y year old from 3.15 to 6 pm. Lost 10-4 at football and was 'on' for 95% of the tiggy. Good fun all round. Let's see if I can get out of BOO with a profit - on school run from 6.30 am to 9.15 am- may have to sell on my phone whilst making porridge lol. Keep up the teamwork - some good folks in and around JLP - cheers TC. £400 + is good for a trade in this market I think.
So far so good.
my step daughter just e-mailed me a KPMG report on the Christmas 2019 trading performance of all retailers - average on line traders recorded a 16% increase in sales year on year for Christmas period. boo was up 44% and was the biggest increase. I suppose that is why it has fallen so far as the share price would have been inflated by those great results (like SLP in palladium arena) - if Boo can't survive then all other clothes retailers will have gone first IMO.
Hi TC - been looking at oil this morning and got BP and Shell on my watchlist. WTI is down to $23 to $24 ad $20 was my target entry point. Oil did go down to about $9 in 1998 when OPEC crumbled before so there could still be downside after $20. last dip it went to $17. I think BP and Shell will be what the grandkids put their money in and hold. They might be my first buy and hold for the recovery or OPEC news turn around.
Boo not my area - done some questioning of my daughter (prolific online spender) she says it is a successful on line retailer but focuses on the cheaper end and those people buying cheeper clothes will be without cash for longest. Also no-one is going out so why do they need new clothes - because they are women that's why and they have little else to do if isolated. So we (her0 estimates that if the main distancing period is about 3 months we should see about a 25% drop in revenue this year but with an ongoing effect into the future. I checked the cash and they have one quarter of annual revenue in cash - so they should be ok for a year but thereafter who knows. It looks set for a bounce you could trade soon IMO - even right now is possible - overall I think the shares would be exceptionally cheap at 80 and decent at 120 - it seems to have dropped a lot more than others. Of course Amazon in comparison has done much better because it is diversified.
Good posts Bluebelly and TBTT - yes phenomenal cash generation and they will be fine at SLP.
Where SLP or any share ends up does depend on the depth to which metals fall and the length of time to recovery.
yesterdays relief rally that affected gold may be repeated a few times. bluebelly's post on the peak being in about a month is very important and the peak in the US is even more important IMO. The USA always leads the world out of recession - it will need to have a psychology of the worst being over before things can start to turn.
Specifically on SLP - Rhodium and Palladium are now down about 45% from their peaks - which means SLPs profitability is down more than this - say about 55% +. So they are still making money and have lots of cash in the bank and are still adding to it and of course the share buybacks mentioned by TBTT are hugely supportive.
Today it is reported that China is considering stopping the new laws on car emissions to help manufacturers - this was the main cause of the palladium and rhodium rise.
Looking forward it is easy to see Rhodium and palladium back down to almost where they were 3 years ago with platinum at around $500. SLP will be worth 8p + the value of the cash pile and this could be considerable. If SLP doesn't hit 20p I will be amazed and what a bargain it could be when this is all over. We have had 1 month of this and there is a minimum of 8 months to go and possibly 3 years - SLP could be a good one for the stock pickers in this environment. I want to hold SLP and JLP and they both are much cheaper than they were so it's tempting. But I remember thinking this before. GLA.
My brother in law does final polishes etc to new cars - last week 13 cars - this week 2 - very small amount of data to go on I know.
Weeble is right about JLP - there will be production being taken off the table and JLP is well placed to focus on profitable minerals and cut costs. What price to pay is the question - looking at 4 to 5 years then 2p to 2.5p looks a bargain. Looking at 3 months to 9 months who knows whether this is cheep or expensive? Almost every share I follow has identical charts and indicators - a flatter calmer period than before as TC has been intimating.
I have a theory on SLP - don't throw stuff at me will yer.
Shares like EUA have a lot of 'investors' that know very little about mining or what they are buying into. It becomes a religious experience for them - they believe and nothing can shake their belief (see GKPers still promoting the company after a 99% fall). They do not sell when they should. EUA may be a bad example as it is suspended but I am sure we would have seen a raft of bargain hunters and topper uppers if they could.
Now SLP has many long term and thoughtful investors but it did catch the palladium / rhodium bug and attract a few of the less savvy retail investors at the back end IMO (that's why I thought 40p was it - but it went to 60p - I got it wrong and underestimated the enthusiasm of the newly converted). They are believers and think SLP cannot lose. It has taken longer than with other shares for the reality to start to feed through to them.
The reality is that Platinum at $350 an ounce for example in costs and selling at $1050 was 200% profit and now at $650 and ounce it is about 85% Profit. based on platinum the sp should have dropped by about 60% but it was only down about 15% until Friday. Palladium and especially Rhodium were laggards as institutions held onto them a little longer in case the downturn was short lived - they are now following platinum.
IMO - IF SLP was worth 60p then it will soon be worth 24p and of course it can over correct. last time I bought SLP it was 8p and not long ago - just saying - cue throwing stuff at me.
Stock market (UK) could go another 15% to 25% Craig looking at historical data - can see why you would let it ride with the ones you have kept to this point - difficult to sell when you can't be sure where the bottom is and it has already fallen 33%. Next couple of days will be crucial for US market. Still not dropped below that 29% level but I think it looks imminent - the actions taken to control the virus spread look like they are causing financial problem on top of the supply and demand problems IMO. US institutions are doing what you are doing and holding on for the good times to return - we may see capitulation in their resolve at some time. You, my friend appear to be made of sterner stuff.
Just looked at SLP Craig - I don't fancy the chances in the short term looking at the charts (I have got that one wrong before as you remember lol). A little rally on JLP but running out of steam already and the rally on SLP looked like a good one to sell into IMO. Can't believe some of the boards I look at - all the way down folks are 'topping up' and getting 'bargains' or 'lowering their average' - anyone who has held onto shares should at least be thinking of diversifying if they think this is the bottom - lots of companies, especially ones with large debt are going to go under. no point having all your eggs in one basket if the basket gets smashed.
SLP are in a strong position and will be a good buy in 6 months to 3 years time. JLP should survive - but we don't know the debt situation and the Kabwe state of play. Mothball Kabwe and just do pgms to get cash in short term to provide a buffer may be prudent - the thing is on Kabwe - only Leon knows the margins and even then they are estimates. At current pgm prices they should still be churning profits. drastic action may be needed IMO but JLP should survive easily enough.
Respect and admiration for your daughter GIT she is showing the better side of humans - you post brought a lump to my throat - pride, respect and love for your children and grandchildren - nothing tops it.
None of us know where the bottom is TC for markets or individual stocks - the US stock market has rallied again at the key 30% down level - I still think they are just behind the curve and will catch up when the statistics reveal the picture to them.
The UK should do relatively well in terms of GDP being hit IMO - I think our Government has taken the best route for health and the economy - but only time will tell.
All we were bothered about was the tonnage - it was all that mattered.
Now we have the APT price as well - it has held up but for how long - demand has fallen but so did supply - where is the balance - need to keep a keen eye on it - anyone got access to a daily figure that we can use.
The third is what is happening to broader markets - they take down everything and WRES is a thing.
The fall in WRES before the virus was due to delays and tonnage doubt - they were priced in. The falls since the virus are not logically justified and could be a buying opportunity. However, the market may be anticipating a rapid fall off in the APT price which, if it is on the way and is sustained for any period would justify the virus falls and more.
50% fall in APT prices for 3 years means WRES is finished - unlikely and APT prices have held up - but a keen eye on the APT prices is vital at this time - anyone help out here.
Just had a quick scan of several indicators and read/listened to a few commentators.
JLP - I think we will see a bounce from now - buy at 2.285p to 2.5p - only prepared to risk say £3000 and could make 10% or about £300 - on balance have decided it isn't worth the risk for that mount of reward so leaving it alone. Long term low was at 1.3p (I did buy at 1.6p before).
US markets back to about 28% down - still not given up on my Scenario1 of an event driven crash and this is the bottom - listening to US commentators they are starting to expect that this will give way to scenario 2 i.e. much more to fall - maximum I expect is 57% and this would surely give us JLP at 1.3p. we are at a key point in the US - so watch and do nothing for me.
As for safe havens - gold and silver have dropped though support (silver massive support) - gold could go to $1370 then $1250 and then just above $1000 but could gain traction and rally at any time. Risky punt - not for me.
Silver has really crashed through strong support and it would be like trying to catch a falling knife - Jim Wykoff (massive gold and silver supporter) looking at $8.4 per ounce silver - it dropped 15% today to $12.4 - a good example of when a bargain looks a bargain but it isn't.
Temptation all around us and another rebound may be starting now- sitting on my hands - there is plenty of time - we are not going to miss out. Doing some more research - will share.