Interview/why I am not selling.7 Aug 2025 12:30
Share now significantly oversold- a rebound is likely.
Selling the S.A. business at a multiple of capital requirements for Zambia - de-risks the investment, avoids further dilution - some cash mus surely be used for day to day expenses as Roan won't cover these at current output, none-the -less the company will have capital in the bank - buybacks??
Zambia is unleveraged with no securitised debt at all - debt goes with the sale??
JV with partner for waste rock - capital put in and the partner will be the buyer of product - truly de-risked, non dilutative and does not need Roan processing capacity - the waste rock can be all extra income.
Roan current production is the bottom end of the scale - proving that the processes work to the market. Higher grade input of oxides can take Roan to and above 10,000t copper units (approximately 1,100 ish t of concentrate = 384t of copper units at Roan currently).
Mining getting going and expanding at Munkoyo and G which should have profit margins of around 35% to 38% compared to 20% to 25% for Roan with bought in feed.
Next steps - Sable to take in Munkoyo, G and some Roan in 1st quarter 2026 (?) and Munkoyo game changing on site refining to reduce transport costs (higher margin) by quarter 2 2026.
Waste rock progress awaiting S.A. sale which is all in place but has taken management time. waste Rock sooner rather than later(?/).
Munkoyo and 2 waste rock units to produce the extra 10,000t.
15,000t possible in 2027 (?) and Roan rejig and different feed could give 20,000t.
Scaling the copper production is critical for profitability - cash support needed this and next financial year from S.A sale ??, then production kicks is.
The gamble is whether JLP produce to plan, which I don't believe they will, see Edzi, but my bet is that with a JV, Cash from low priority assets, Roan production and the S.A sale, the debt free copper producer will not run out of money and/or need dilution before the tonnages reach a level where the company becomes profitable.
Expecting a jump up when the circular is issued. Further interest from the 'thrill of the drill' reMunkoyo sulpate resource mapping and subsequent JORC compliant report. Further inteest as Roan beats current output when the company dare to stop the current less risky processing . More interest as the JV is anounced.
The road has been rough and there will be challenges and underperformance ahead but shareholder value is at the front of their minds - will they deliver? 100% delivery gets us north of 10p, 50% delivery should get us north of 5p. There's a risk, but the sp is at or near rock bottom, history has shown this to be a poor time to sell - so I am holding onto all my shares for better or worse, for richer or poorer. GLA.