Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It's interesting stuff TC - my problem with this short term stuff is that if I back a winner then I tend to sell out too early and bank the profits. My strength is that I have learnt to take the hit when I get it wrong. I don't short so my opportunities in a falling market are few and far between.
Note your comments on the heard being a bit slow on the uptake - saw a commentator discussing the markets on Bloomberg and he was talking about much further to go down and the time frame being longer than most think - but he also said that in bear markets you often get 20% jumps in the indices - so worth trying to predict them - going to have a study of past bear markets to see if there is a discernible pattern in the heard behaviour. It should be around for about 3 years so better know the beast. To think that a 10 year bull market will be followed by a one month bear market looks rather optimistic - but still some shares doubled in last weeks rally so go with the heard when they are buying.
Troll to what effect - to get the sp down and buy in - the sp is doing fine on it's own without troll input - troll to buy in - not a chance. lol.
The local investors who stumped up cash at .5p and .36p after being charmed by MM, may just string him up.
Current market cap 7.7 million - soon to be 4 million.
They borrow 4 million and take the shares through conversion which gives Blackrock effective control of the company. Take it off AIM - offering .05p per share to all holders and tuck the operation away in Blackrock's vaults until the next hike in Tungsten prices.
in the meantime Mr Masterman takes his salary and pays the security guards peanuts and tries to get some money from the Government so he can keep the charade up for even longer.
The production figures will be worth a look - but if they are as appalling as indicated - then the only reason to continue is to keep MM's salary rolling in.
GLA - will have a look at the figures when they come out but there are so many cheap companies about, that are about to get a whole lot cheaper - that actually make a profit in 'normal' times that it would seem highly unlikely that anyone would put new money in here.
Best wishes to the nuns - especially the Hartlepool ones.
So those oil hale companies go bust and new leaner and fitter ones take their place with ex managers as CEO's. The banks have to take a hit and one or two of them go under and are replaced by the fitter banks who did due diligence.
Trump doesn't want this as jobs and businesses are lost and he needs the economy to be doing well for his re-election - this is all he cares about and has influenced every tweet, action and lie he has put out there since the Covid-19 outbreak began. he has appealed to Saudi Arabia to 'do the right thing' - the right thing for who exactly? He now wants to work with Russia to get the oil price up. US oil shale is the main reason for an over supply of oil - I think Russia and Saudi Arabia would do well to rub the US industry into the dust - 6 months of pain for 3 to 5 years of control.
The one good thing at the moment for businesses is that they will be able to have really low energy bills once this is over. In order to save the US oil industry Trump would inflate the oil price in the USA only and handicap their manufacturing - another case of nothing being so bad that a politician can't make it worse. The US oil shale business will do what it did last time - stop drilling and wait.
Trust no-one but yourself TC - I think you have it right - too many people still think the virus numbers will fall and then we go back to work with little long term damage done and then it's boom time again. I would give that scenario about a 5% chance. The stockmarkets are usually out of tune with the economy - last week was another example - people think that Governments can print money and make it alright and so they buy and others join in and so on. Until the effect runs out and reality starts to dawn and then they are rushing for the door again. Even Trump realises it ain't going to be over by Easter so maybe just maybe the penny is beginning to drop across the pond.
Hi TC - excellent work and good to see some profits banked. Been too busy to do any trading myself. Looking after family and doing some electrical work for my step daughter. had a break from the news as well so a bit out of touch. I have had a brief look at the charts and the FTSE, JLP, etc etc are all almost identical in shape. The MacD stands out as you say as the one bullish looking signal and also a couple of weak days could destroy this as you also say. Unless we get some sort of breakthrough (e.g. the home testing kits reveal that 50% of us have already had the virus) then I still anticipate another big leg down or a long winding up and down fall to the bottom over many months. It would not surprise me to see markets lower by up to 30% from where we are now. Below 4,000 on FTSE and about 1600 on S and P 500. I know it looks a long shot but it is in line with historical falls. Didn't make any money out of the rally - just glad not to lose any. Trading looks tricky for the coming week IMO.
Smashing update for all holders - excellent .
Cash position was of prime importance - they had 10 million - but have 6 million to pay out in short term so that leaves 4 million and they should have added a million plus in the first couple of months - maybe 2 million. So about 6 million in cash approx which should see Kabwe through to production I would hope. They should weather the shut down even if it is extended by an extra 3 weeks.
PGM prices are robust in the short term and should add some more cash to the balance sheet before a re-balancing of supply and demand takes place - more likely to buy here now the situation is clearer - just the Kabwe rights to be clarified but pgms alone would be a decent investment.
Good to see some making profits and others taking some off the table at a significantly lower loss than they had on paper.
SLP are clear "The implication of this announcement is that all mining operations in SA will be impacted during the lockdown. As a consequence, the Sylvania Dump Operations ("SDO") are also required to be placed on care and maintenance, resulting in no PGM ounce production during the lockdown period. "
Will report of interims be delayed 2 weeks due to the crisis?
Nice bounce - USA kitchen sink helping plus pgm prices don't forget to take profits and /or sell into strength on all shares GLA.
Thanks TC - going to had John Wood to my list as WEIR were looking to shed some oil business when this hit so they may be stuck with some part of the business that they were having problems with - so WG may be the better bet.
Had a walk today with my step daughter and her boyfriend - lovely day. Counting my blessings.
JLP could show further short term weakness but I am encouraged by the rns - using the shut down time to think it through.
Someone on Bloomberg said today that in this market you need to be in for a few minutes or a few years and nothing in between. I echo that - trade or build a portfolio for the next 5 to 10 years. I need liquidity next May so my time frame is too short to be buying and holding at this stage. Good luck.
On a financial note Minor Miner - GLR has fallen 50% since the stockmarket fall out - do you think the Star Zinc development is off the table for the time being or do you think it is viable at current zinc prices or maybe 20% lower than where zinc prices are now.
Got WEIR on watch volcano - it multibagged after the last crisis. Exposed to oil and gas - particularly USA and mining. It could repeat - however see the other posts as they were planning to get out of oil and gas - so this time it may be different - keeping my powder dry for quite a bit longer yet - can't see the rally today lasting - the deflation word is being used more and more often. Waiting for some clarity.
Hi TC - got WEIR on watch - a similar company to John Wood - supplies mining companies and oil companies - especially in USA. So business is decimated at the moment - WEIR was a fabulous investment after the last crash and multibagged - so I am with you on the type of company - WG looks strong and could well be a big rebounder. It looks better at 143 p rather than 150p - can't say I would revcomend to buy it now as all signals seem mixed to me at the moment. The one year charts of some companies such as WG and JLP are saying they are on the edge of a mega break out upwards - no way near confirmed yet but shaping up. meanwhile the concensus is shifting from inflation to deflation and yet pgm's and stocks have risen on the inflationary action of the world's governments - so keeping my powder dry - but if I were to be anxious to get in there then WG would be on my radar or WEIR. let's see what tomorrow brings - maybe there will be a sobering up of speculators and a change in the shape of the charts.
p.s. JLP rns looks solid and did not deserve the reaction it got in the sp IMO. Wish I knew the actual cash position and debt position.
Nice little bounce this morning that the charts indicated - the charts now look mixed - we could be set for a second wind, which could be worth selling into (IMO) or it may just settle back down again - one of those occasions where looking back it will be obvious but we don't have the use of hindsight.
Looking at JLP as a company - the lockdown for 3 weeks would normally decimate the sp but as some have already pointed out it helps offset the massive demand destruction if S Africa doesn't produce pgm's. We know JLP produces cash flow at these pgm levels - very healthy cash flow. We know they have big outgoings in terms of payments for chrome and pgm assets plus the costs of getting sable ready. We also know that Sable will find it tough to be profitable from 3rd party materials and now it could be impossible with 25% fall in copper and 20% fall in zinc prices.
What we don't know is the supply demand balance for pgm's although the market thinks deficit, today at least.
We also don't know what the legal position is at Kabwe (see Minor Miner's cryptic I am smarter than you posts) and JLP are tight lipped on it.
My thinking is that at current pgm prices - Kabwe can be mothballed for another 3 years whilst any legal stuff is sorted and so can Sable if 3rd party material is not enough to make it profitable. JLP is worth more than 2p on PGM's alone at these pgm prices - the key thing here and at SLP for that matter, is what will be the demand for pgm's once the shut down smelter is up and running and S Africa production comes back on line and what happens to the dollar as safe haven rather than pgm's and how long does that last - fortune does not always favour the brave and I for one am prepared to be a coward and miss out rather than risk losing money at this stage - it's rarely easy to make money - a time will come when everyone will make money in the markets and new geniuses will be born - but is that time now - history says no but the pgm space could be the exception - I am not smart enough to work that out though.
(p.s. good health to you and yours Minor Miner - keep safe).
We are all idiots Jonah - it goes with the territory of investing on AIM.
My school did Wednesday afternoon PE and often took groups out to do rock climbing on Stanage Edge - my daughter and son also went with their schools for PE lessons. My granddaughter loves climbing at Meadowhall but not been to Stanage yet - but now you have put it in my mind I think I may take them to the caves next week.
Most people are good - it is part of human nature - it helps us to survive to work together.
A sobering piece of information - up to 2 days ago over 125,000 people had died in the Uk and 144 of these were from the virus - just over 0.1% of all deaths - we know this is going to get worse but so far not as awful as we fear.
In a typical year over 400,000 over 70 year olds die - we are trying to keep the covid deaths to less than 20,000 - that would be truly remarkable and a testament to the Governments efforts.
Only 1% of those who have dies so far did not have a pre diagnosed condition. Also only 1% of people who have died are under 70.
Agree 100% goldsmith - I would give them 9out of 10. Keep up the good work and thank you.